First 2024 Presidential Debate

Better Harris than Biden.

 

The only person being shown to solidly beat Donald Trump is Michelle Obama. I imagine that Barack Obama would poll well if they can pull off slipping him in as Biden's VP. According to various legal scholars it is a loophole. The Constitution says " elected " more than twice. He wouldn't be. Someone then brings up the objection that the vice presidential clause says not disqualified for president but according to legal scholars that doesn't mean what people think it means and it doesn't disqualify Obama from assuming that role as that applies to something else.

Would he or Michelle give up their cushy lifestyle and multi-million dollar income to do 4 years of stress at 400,000 a year... probably not unless they are just hugely civic minded and patriotic.

 

Newsweek says a compilation of polls show Trump heading for a potential landslide. He could also get a boost out of whoever he chooses as vice president.

"If correct, the polling shows that Trump could win 333 Electoral College votes to Biden's 205, according to analysis of the data."

Of course if they Republicans can keep the house and take the Senate back it will be very interesting.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-presidential-election-poll-1920559

 

There is a historian named Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted the results of 9 out of the 10 past elections. The only one he got wrong was Bush vs Gore, which was ultimately decided by the Supreme Court. He says that removing Biden from the Democratic ticket would be a mistake. He has a grading system he uses to predict the outcomes of elections. Removing Biden would eliminate two positive categories: incumbency and contest. Biden is the only incumbent, and if he drops out, there could be a brawl at the Democratic convention, which would weaken the chosen candidate.

He says the only potential alternative is a smooth transition to Harris without a convention fight, but she's still weaker than Biden based on his grading system.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/07/allan-lichtman-democratic-delegates-joe-biden/74320955007/

 

According to The Hill, he still hasn't picked a winner yet.

 

Biden’s fate could come down to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries
Edward-Isaac Dovere, CNN
Mon, July 8, 2024 at 11:25 AM PDT
Sunday morning, Hakeem Jeffries went to church back home in Brooklyn. Shortly after, he tweeted a verse from the Book of Joshua: “Do not be discouraged, for the Lord your god will be with you wherever you go.”

That’s from right after the passage where Moses dies of old age, and a new, younger leader takes his people into the Promised Land.

This was a coincidence, people familiar say. He just likes the verse. Didn’t mean to imply anything by the context.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-fate-could-come-down-171245140.html

 

Biden could resign now. That would make Harris the incumbent.

 

"From your lips to G-d's ears."

 

Lichtman said that scenario --Biden resigning before the election so Harris becomes president, with the advantages of incumbency--was the only alternative he said had a chance of keeping Trump out of the White House.

 

From a social science research perspective, I wonder how this strategy would work on the psyches of voters. I'm not sure we've encountered this before, especially multiple times, to test it. His grading system is based on factors that repeatedly occurred throughout history. Would Harris being president for a few months give her a boost in November?

The vice president has mostly taken over because of a death. Ford took over because Nixon resigned. He served for a few years and lost his election against Carter, but Ford could have been missing some other factors, such as contest. He faced a serious primary challenge from Reagan and his conservative supporters, which weakened his image within the Republican Party.

I feel like things would have been different if Biden voluntarily resigned last year. That would have put Harris in a better position.

 

Biden gives speech at NATO summit.
He still has it:

 

He didn't do badly. Slight slurring but he held it together. Glad for him and for the US.

Nice to see Jens Stoltenberg receive the Presidential Medal.

 

Speeches from scripts aren't going to prove a thing.

The question isn't what Biden needs to do. The question is whether or not he can do it.

I'm afraid he cannot.

This country has always longed for strong leaders (or, more accurately, those perceived to be strong). It lets them (Nixon, Reagan, GW Bush, Trump) get away with a lot, and it spits out those (Carter, GHW Bush, and now Biden) who are not.

Democrats struggled with this for a long time, putting up one candidate after another who could be torn down. (Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, Hillary Clinton.) And when the Democratic Party does get it right (Bill Clinton, Obama), it quickly forgets.

Biden is different because he has changed. He's no longer the avuncular leader coming to rescue us from Trump. He's a weakened version of himself, declining in office more quickly than any other president since Woodrow Wilson. This is endangering the country.

Every sign of weakness Biden displays is a "plus" put into Trump's strength column. Fair? Of course not. But that's how we perceive things. Trump is a demented, incompetent, traitorous, lecherous criminal and liar. But we'll certainly hand him the keys to the kingdom over a guy we perceive to be weak. That's just the way it is.

 

You made me suddenly picture Dukakis in a helmet riding the tank (poor guy looked goofy and it ended his chances).

To your point. Some Democratic Party donors (heavy hitters) have said they will withhold donations until Biden has gone. Democratic celebrity supporters like Rob Reiner, Stephen King, and Michael Moore have all asked Biden to step aside. Moore even called Biden's being kept in the campaign, "Elder Abuse".

I think they are afraid that Biden's stubbornness will hand Trump a victory. That Newsweek article indicated a potential landslide in electoral College votes. Then if he takes control of the Senate, keeps Congress, he also has the ability to keep appointing Justices to the Supreme Court. And for some Democrats (and others) that is not a comfortable prospect (Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches under the control of DJT).

 

On the other hand, perhaps all of these people are worried for nothing. Now to November is a long time.

 

That's why Carter lost in 1980.

 

Why?

 

Evident weakness in the face of a clear act of war. Personally, as an active duty junior lieutenant in the Navy, I thought Carter was a bit too cozy with terrorists in general.

 

Of course, we ended up with a Montebank for the Ages, Ronald Reagan. Gosh, Reagan was popular! Unbelievably popular and he stayed popular enough that his Vice President won in 1988 on the strength of Reagan's popularity.

At the 1980 Democratic Convention, Ted Kennedy very nearly took the nomination from Carter, the incumbent President. Unheard of but it shows how disgusted the Party was with Jimmy. Probably didn't matter. We'd have lost either way.

 

Biden’s poor debate performance had almost no impact on voter preference, new report says

https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/07/09/biden-debate-performance-voter-preferences/