First 2024 Presidential Debate

Yeah, there's supposed to be some increasing support there but the bulk still goes to Biden. Polls apparently don't mean much until after Labor Day.

 

I saw that.

 

Gonna stick my neck out here...Biden will step aside. I think so. The money boys are putting it to him pretty straight I think. Harris will probably be nominated at the convention and will defeat Trump in November.

Tea leaves, folks. Don't place any bets on my opinions.

 

Why Harris? Because she ALSO won all those primaries and raised all that cash.

 

If Trump picks Nikki Haley as running mate, their chances to win against Dems will increase.
I can't predict the outcome, my last 4 presidential elections I had 50% success rate in predicting who will be the winner.

 

I don't know what I would do.

 

My prediction in this case is the press will get on Gretchen Whitmer's case, instantly making her a "problematic candidate". A process known as "getting Hillaried".

 

Somewhere tell me why this take is wrong:

 

Like what has happened to Harris. Republicans seem to have this super Hillaried power. Maybe we’ll have to wait for a female President that’s Republican maybe by 2124?

 

I wish it were just Republicans.

 

Right now, Joe Biden losing to Donald Trump is not my most pressing concern. I'm worried about Joe Biden being the current U.S. President.

 

Joe Biden losing to Donald Trump is very much my most pressing concern.
Anything to respond to Buttigieg's take?

 

Oh, maybe a voice of calm perspective amidst all us Democrat bed wetters.

Look, Trump lost to Biden last time but it's not like Biden was ever charismatic and popular. We really can't pay much attention to polls yet. By November the few genuine swing voters out there will have endured an endless parade of Trump related horribles.

I find it fairly easy to picture a 2020 Trump voter deciding to stay home this time. I find it much more difficult to picture a 2020 Biden voter casting a ballot for Trump in 2024. I also note that Democratic candidates further down the list are doing well. Will there be a reverse coattails effect? If you turn out to support your Democratic Senate candidate, will you really leave the President and Veep box blank?

Buttigedge is no fool.

 

Your concern is valid.
I'm surrounded by Democrats, all my extended family and many of my friends say they usually vote Democrat.

But they are really unhappy, the cost of living, crime and other pressing issues appear to depress people.
Young people are uncertain in their futures.

I'm bad in predicting elections, I think maybe independents will have larger than usual votes.
As I mentioned earlier, Trumps running mate, who he will announce on Jul 15th may also have an effect.

People are much more unhappy with the issues I mentioned now, more than in pandemic 2020.

But there is still time, 4 months a lot of time, things can change.

 

Who is Gretchen Whitmer? (Yes, I know I can Google her, but having to go that route is the point.)

 

Joe Biden could be in a coma, and it would be better than having Trump.

 

Well, that IS the point. Harris has name recognition, a national campaign apparatus, and gobs of Biden Harris cash. She might not be universally beloved but she doesn't scare people and she is the incumbent vice president. She could slide into Biden's place with barely a ripple. No one else can.

 

Harris is also the only possible contender who could claim some past electoral mandate for the nomination.
Serving in the country’s second-highest office has given her some amount of executive governing experience, and Biden choosing her as his running mate already made her one of the top possible candidates for the 2028 nomination.
If Harris were to be passed over, the California Gov. Gavin Newsom would almost certainly be at or near the top of many Democratic delegates’ list to be the nominee.