US intelligence: Russia plans to attack Ukraine early next year

This is some sort of insanity. At the same time the White House announced strict new sanctions Biden made it explicitly clear that he would do nothing that might interrupt the flow of Russian gas to Europe! What fantasy parallel universe are these people living in? Sales of that gas FUND Putin's kleptocracy. And do they really think the Russians won't use that gas for leverage?

I can't believe anyone anywhere could be so STUPID.

 

OK. I get your point. But if Putin shuts off the valves at GAZPROM, as he's threatened to do in the past, how do millions of Europeans survive the winter? It's as freezing cold, for the most part, as it is in this part of Canada. I talk (email actually) to people there every day. How are they gonna live? Any ideas?

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-react-shock-outrage-attack-193719034.html

Shocked Russians turned out by the thousands Thursday to decry their country's invasion of Ukraine as emotional calls for protests grew on social media. Some 1,745 people in 54 Russian cities were detained, at least 957 of them in Moscow.

Hundreds of posts came pouring in condemning Moscow’s most aggressive actions since the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Vladimir Putin called the attack a “special military operation” to protect civilians in eastern Ukraine from “genocide” — a false claim the U.S. had predicted would be a pretext for invasion, and which many Russians roundly rejected.

Tatyana Usmanova, an opposition activist in Moscow, wrote on Facebook that she thought she was dreaming when she awoke at 5:30 a.m. to the news, which she called “a disgrace that will be forever with us now.”

“I want to ask Ukrainians for forgiveness. We didn’t vote for those who unleashed the war,” she said.

 

LNG can be shipped. Reactors can (maybe) be restarted. Hell, coal can be burnt! This approach says loud and clear, "So sorry Ukraine. Nice knowing ya."

 

And Europe damned well better figure it out because that same argument means Putin wins next time too.

 

According to EuroNews EU only buys 15% of gas from Russia.
For 2022 they have reserves and no longer need anything from Russia.
Going forward they will work and been working on alternate sources.
EU sanctions are severe. From what I understood Russia provided reasonable price.
So the challenges will be the cost and possible more expensive solutions.

 

A couple-three years back, I remember a news item that Vlad Khuylo had tripled the price of gas to one (or more) of the Baltic countries and turned the valves off (or threatened, I'm not sure) when they refused to pay. I don't know the terms but it got settled VERY quickly.

Reactors are for electricity. I doubt there's a huge percentage of homes heated that way. There aren't, here - maybe I'll ask my friends tomorrow. Coal will give you electricity - but that went out in power plants years ago. There are darn few home coal furnaces left - or none. I'd figure they're forbidden these days. Most homes here -- gas. Large-scale shipping-in or LNG - procurement and logistic problems. Solvable, but not in a day. Takes less than that for Bad Vlad to stop the flow.

These alternatives don't sound as good and easy to me as they do to you.

 

Followup. (Too late to alter my prev. message.) Russia has turned off the valves before, in 2006 and 2009 to Ukraine. Consequence - Ukraine hasn't bought gas from Russia since then. The shutoff temporarily killed the gas supply to European countries down the line , including Germany. But everyone got through.

"This approach says loud and clear, "So sorry Ukraine. Nice knowing ya."

Right. This is so bad I can't really get my head around it. Regardless of what I say about alternatives, you're right. You always are, and I should face up to that. Nosborne48, I wish you were an international leader right now... or that you could be allowed to teach the present leaders a thing or two. Your wisdom is needed.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/live-updates-ukrainian-military-battles-064016216.html

 

Well, both Ukraine and Russia seem to be willing to talk. What that actually means is Putin will dictate terms of surrender. Not to say Ukraine will cease to exist. Putin can avoid a good deal of expense by throwing a few crumbs out. But any independence will be carefully delineated and post war Ukraine will be smaller.

 

This sounds like a recipe for protracted guerilla warfare. Ukraine is not Russia.

 

May be. The area has a history of armed resistance. That's one reason Putin might toss a few crumbs. He probably doesn't want to keep Russian troops in the country. As for Western sanctions, the cynic (realist?) in me says they will SWIFTly fade away. Too much money to be made in trading with Russian oligarchs.

 

A banking expert explained that removing Russia from SWIFT would likely have undesired consequences.
It wouldn't cut Russia off from international banking as much as is assumed. Russia has a separate system that would be easily beefed up if they were removed from SWIFT. It would just make it extremely inconvenient for existing customers. Removal from SWIFT would best be done after better preparations, such as putting in place trade embargos and organizing alternatives for things not embargoed.

I would like to see maximum sanctions against Russia. Cut them off like North Korea. China would be their only trading partner in that case.

 

I'll take your word for it. Looks to me though that the EU is polishing its nails while it offers "all aid short of actual help." Typical.

 

Russia threatens Finland and Sweden if they join NATO...

Russia has warned of "serious military and political repercussions" if Finland joins Nato amid the Ukraine crisis.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the country's accession to Nato, the military alliance currently made up of 28 European countries plus the US and Canada, could "have detrimental consequences".

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine this week, Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin said the debate surrounding Finland's membership of NATO "will change".


Russia threatens 'military repercussions' if Finland joins NATO (yahoo.com)

 

Russia and Finland have a long bitter history. But Putin is not ignorant. He knows what his forebears found when they attacked Finland in the Winter War. The Finns haven't forgotten either.

 

I know little about land warfare but the commentary from some who do suggests that Putin didn’t throw in enough troops to occupy all of Ukraine. If that's true, what is his end game? I don't see how he comes out a winner here nor do I see how he could back out.

 

Maybe what we're seeing isn't "Poland 1939" but "Hungary 1956".

 

I hadn't heard that our traitorous ex-president was planning on pulling out of NATO during his second term. At least that is what he had told aides. I wonder what kind of financial reward Khuylo Putin had offered Mr. Trump for such a service to Russia?

Trump, Pompeo, and Tucker Carlson's traitorous words are apparently practically being played on a loop on Russian TV.

 

So far it appears that Russian occupier forces are engaged in surgical type of operations.
They are not yet engaged is massive bombings - carpet type for what they are known.
Ukranian resistance is not making it easy for the Russian occupiers.
Western news sources report that Russia moved 50% of their armed forces to Ukraine.
Increase in attack vehicles, tanks are crossing in to Ukraine.
Chechen Muslim units now engaged and fighting in Ukrane, reports state they took over a Ukranian military base.
My oldest cousin lives in Severo Donetsk, he was sherring with us what his family experienced there. There was time they had to escape to Sevastopol the house of in-laws but few years back he returned to Severodonetsk - is a city in the Luhansk Oblast of Ukraine.