2024 tea leaves?

It's too early to have a good feel for who does and does not have a shot. A couple of years is an eternity in politics. Remember that Nixon guy? Almost didn't stay on the ticket with Ike. Ike disliked and sidelined him. He lost to JFK when it was his turn to run. Just two years later he lost his bid for California governor. Told the press he was retiring from politics. ("You won't have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore.) And in just 6 short years he was president.

Carter came from nowhere. Reagan ran against the incumbent and lost the nomination in '76. The list goes on. I wouldn't rule out Pence. (And I also think his chances are awful.)

 

What's the worst thing someone can be accused of, arguably it would be pedophilia, even worse than murder? That is why the Republicans like to sling this slur around. For example DeSantis accuses folks of pedophilia if they disagree with his Don't Say Gay Bill.

Here's a nice article that covers "sneering" by the right that is far far worse than anything tried by the left. Basically accusing democrats of pedophilia. QAnon is all about this lie. But the pedophilia smear goes much further than just QAnon and Don't say Gay Bill defense.

For example,
The Slime Machine Targeting Dozens of Biden Nominees
https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/the-slime-machine-targeting-dozens-of-biden-nominees

 

1) Yes, it's too early. 2) Perceptions and myth matter more in politics than objective reality. 3) What about-ism is pointless.

That's about it I think.

 

We could add that it can be fun and interesting to speculate about political outcomes despite all of that.

 

What about the issues? Why so much discussion about candidates.
Voters will be voting on issues.
Unfulfilled promises. Crime,
Inflation, Borders, Climat, International affairs etc.
If we get to live to 2024.
With Putin threatening nuke attacks.

 

Will there even be issues? The GOP platform for 2020 was actually "We love Trump". Literally nothing else. No issues. Just Trump. It's archived on the internet somewhere, even.

 

2020 was then, this tread is about 2024. And we have mid terms this year.
There are always issues, in 2020 it was also about issues, COVID 19 was the most burning issue in 2020 followed by other issues such as protests and riots etc.
Approval numbers remain stuck at near-record lows, according to a new latest Gallup poll.
It appears current admin decreasing in support of young adults in general, and black adults and Hispanic adults.
At this point to me it appears that President Biden will likely to be governing with Republican majorities in one or both houses of Congress next year unless his rating dramatically improves.

 

I thought you wanted to talk about issues. Approval ratings aren't a platform.

 

Did Biden really have a platform beyond, "I'm not Trump"? Did he need one? Down ballot Democrats didn’t do very well so whatever platform they had didn't sell all that well.

 

He did have an official platform, not that I remember what it was. Because, yes, it mostly boiled down to "I'm not Trump" in most people's minds.

 

Right, Rachel. Mr. Biden did have a platform - it's here. https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/

It involved:

(1) Build Back Better - Economic recovery for working class.
(2) Rebuild Middle Class - "Trump rewards wealth. We reward work."
(3) Create a More Resilient Sustainable Economy --- clean energy
(4) Ensure All Americans Get a Fair Shot - program for Black Americans
(5) Ensure All Americans Are Treated with Dignity - program for Latinos.

It appears Trump was mentioned by name -- once.

 

Right, right, right...I remember now.

 

The 2020 issues pushed by, documented by, the Republican party was right there in their platform. It was actually just ONE issue. That one issue was that Donald Trump is wonderful great and the leader of the party. That was the whole Republican platform, the ONLY issue. While Trump is still the leader of the Republican party it remains clear that that is still the only issue of merit for the Republican party.

 

Approval #'s mostly affected by issues and how the issues are handled.

 

There was a range of issues and there is a range of issues today and upcoming midterms etc.

An issue likely to loom large ahead of the midterms is inflation highest level in almost 40 years.
Supply chain issues contributed to that.
Voters will have to think about who can and can't be trusted with the economy.
The administration’s economic policy could also have real-world implications.
Violent crime is also an issue that will be looked at.
And the usual's such as cost of living, jobs etc.
Is seems the economy is growing and unemployment remains low.

 

Here's an article written by a very conservative Republican federal judge that warns that Rich's scenario is very scary and very possible! Our democracy is in grave danger from the insane Republican Trump MAGA base. Although it is notable that he says that it doesn't have to necessarily be Trump but could instead be a Trump approved candidate. Also he believes it very possible that the current SCOTUS might go along with and approve the steal.

Opinion: The Republican blueprint to steal the 2024 election
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/opinions/gop-blueprint-to-steal-the-2024-election-luttig/index.html

 

Hm. Hadn’t thought of that. If the 2020 election were stolen (which it absolutely was not) Pence would be the legitimate Vice President. I wonder if Trump thought that far.

 

I think it's agreed amongst responsible legal opinions that Mike Pence didn't really have any real legal option to act differently than what he did. The key difference between 2020 and the 2024 scenario is that the state legislatures and political electoral college apparatus in enough key states would have to NOT certify the elections rather than certifying the elections at the state level, in 2020 the states had all certified the elections already at the state level. Thereby making the electoral count in 2024 legally ambiguous and having to move on to alternative constitutional mechanisms like congress deciding with each state getting one vote.

 

You can't change election law after the fact though. If a State Legislature decides to select Presidential Electors by itself rather than through a popular vote I don't see anything in the U.S. constitution forbidding that but they'd have to make those changes before the next election cycle. Naturally, State constitutions might have something to say about it though. As to Pence, no, there is zero doubt that he was performing a ministerial task and possessed no discretion.