2024 tea leaves?

Well, politics is America's true National Pastime. So that's my excuse. I don't care that it's waaay too early. Deal with it.

Mike Pence would be very hard to beat in the general election for President assuming the Democrats run Joe B. again. He's just not sufficiently appalling to motivate the Dems to turn out and vote. The question is whether Pence is sufficiently appalling to win the GOP nomination?

Delicate balance...delicate balance...

 

I doubt that Trump will end up running. I think that he will just flirt with running up until the last moment to try to rake in as much cash as possible. I would be even more surprised if Pence won the Republican nomination though. Abbot or DeSantis are more likely nominees, IMHO.

The Democrats will likely be slaughtered no matter who the Republicans put up (unless it's Trump). The best chance for the Democrats, I'll guess, is if Trump does run or if SCOTUS strikes down Roe v. Wade and women rise up and save us.

 

I don't know for sure when, Bill - but I have believed for years that yes, women will save us. Eventually. They are our only chance. We men are, as a group, destructive and hopeless. And women will save everybody, not just themselves. They'll do it because that's their humanity talking - not because we (men) are worth it - because I believe that overall, we're likely not.

This I have faith in. I am, as I've said before, an atheist, so faith is difficult for me - but not so, in women. Politics? Schmolitics. I could care less.

 

DeSantis and Abbott might be sufficiently appalling to give JRB four more years. Not so Pence. Well, we shall see.

I suspect that Trump won the nomination in 2014 in part because Ted Cruz is so repellent.

 

The electorally optimal Republican candidate in the general I'm thinking is Brian Sandoval. In office currently maybe Tim Scott. Pence is electorally competitive, sure.

 

Tim Scott would be an interesting choice. Hm.

 

The problem with DeSantis and Abbott is that they are both Trump style authoritarians. No question the Trump Base will support either one so long as Trump himself isn't running. But Trumpism has never won a popular vote majority in a presidential election. Either governor is appalling enough to cause the Democrats to turn out en masse just as in 2020. Trumpism works in Texas (pretty much always has) and seems to be working in Florida right now but in the long run, I think it's a national loser.

 

I agree completely with everything in your post but this part is a bit iffy, I think. Remember in 2016 Trump came within 2 million votes. He was less known and much less disliked by independents and moderates in 2016 than 2020. Abbot and DeSantis would be less known, like Trump in 2016. I also believe that they would be more able to pivot towards the center during the general election in order to improve their electability.

 

True but the electorate is perhaps more sensitive to authoritarianism than it was in 2016. January 6 really hit home.

 

I think you may be giving a bit more credit to the electorate than deserved but I really hope it is true!

 

• The Republicans take the House and Senate majorities in 2022
• They repeat in 2024
• Donald Trump runs for president in 2024
• He wins the Republican nomination
• He loses the popular vote
• He loses the Electoral College vote
• He is elected the 47th POTUS and inaugurated in January 2025

 

Hopefully...

 

Just a reminder, this is the same list that Rich has posted before. It's chronological order while also being in approximate probability order as well.

 

It's the plan. Have you noticed?

Please share how anything but this will happen.

 

Perhaps… perhaps it’s also possible that a certain political party that viewed attempts at mask and vaccine mandates as authoritarianism over-reach… and are galvanized by a possible upcoming recession that occurs, while the same political party is in charge… and believe Trump or a similar GOP minded individual is their savior to stand up against the authoritarianism they feel they’re up against…

 

I wonder. For the last year or so the people who are getting sick enough to be hospitalized and dying from this horrible disease are far and away those who refuse the vaccine. They may continue to prefer a horse dewormer (or whatever it is) to actual science but those around them may drawing their own conclusions about who the liars and frauds really are.

 

I think you're right, Jonathan. A very sad thing, so many people prepared to vote for a man who believes gays can (and should) be "cured." But when you look closely at some of the others... OW!