Why is the Police not enforcing social distancing at the parks and beaches?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussions' started by Lerner, May 26, 2020.

  1. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly

  2. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    No, I don't.
  3. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    My expectation is that while multiple new vaccines will appear in the coming months, they won't be 100% effective. It might be more like flu vaccines, only effective against particular strains of a constantly mutating virus. So we might have to recognize that this thing isn't going to entirely go away.

    The question is what to do then. We seem to be tilting towards one extreme at the moment, what some characterize as "coronafascism": placing whole populations under something approaching house-arrest, public parks closed, no more restaurants or entertainment, gatherings of people outlawed, shutting down all mainstreet business while shifting everything to Jeff Bezos and Amazon, schools and universities closed perhaps permanently... all in pursuit of zero new cases.

    The other extreme is what China seems to be doing, essentially ignoring covid after earlier draconian disease suppression attempts failed. I'm sure that Beijing has little concern for the rights and liberties of its people, but it cares a lot about the damage that never-ending shutdowns would do to the Chinese economy. So better to sweep it all under the rug and ignore it.

    The problem is that even if a country (the US, Canada, the EU) is able to squeeze the disease down to zero by authoritarian means, the zealous countries are still going to be continually reinfected by the shrug-it-off countries. So borders will have to close and international travel largely banned without lengthy quarantines.

    I don't expect that to happen. Instead we will see a gradual movement of the total-suppression countries towards shrug-it-off.

    So what we are likely to see is the addition of a serious new endemic disease like the world used to face in the early 19th century before any vaccines existed. Lots of people got sick and died back then, it was what was expected.

    In covid's case, something like 90% of fatalities are elderly individuals with pre-existing cardiovascular or pulmonary problems that were already life-threatening. It isn't so much that covid is killing all these people all by itself, it's just piling on and pushing people already nearing death through that door.

    So societies might find it more practical to shelter these vulnerable nursing-home populations in protected 'bubbles' so to speak (just the opposite of how the disease was initially addressed) than dismissing individual rights and shutting down entire economies to halt-the-spread.

    That's how I expect to see things evolving.
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2020 at 5:31 PM
  4. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    While the vaccines may appear in the coming months, first vaccinations may be available in limited numbers.
    They most likely will be administered to first response, medical workers, and other high-risk persons, etc.
    For the general public, I heard CDC rep saying the availability will be Q2 or Q3 of 2021.
    Meanwhile, India to purchase 100 mill vaccines from Russia,
  5. Neuhaus

    Neuhaus Well-Known Member

    Thing is, when you dismantle the infrastructure that helps to identify, trace and contain virus outbreaks that infrastructure doesn't exist for any virus outbreaks, not just the current one.

    So even if everything you just said is as it is, what do you expect will happen when the next time it's Ebola? Aside, of course, from getting on TV and assuring everyone that Ebola isn't really that bad.

    I lost two former shipmates to COVID. One was still on active duty. If he had an underlying health condition it was undetected and not serious enough to exclude him from active duty. The other was obese, for sure, but was by no means "nearing death."

    So I would encourage you to not blather on with your Facebook derived bullet points about how it's OK that millions of people die as long as they were, in your estimation, going to die anyway. Though I strongly suspect that tone would change should someone you know be affected.
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  6. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly

    Neuhaus, I'm sorry for your loss. I wonder how many people, if told they had six months to live, would say, "Oh, well in that case, I'll just die now because it doesn't matter."

    Because I'm pretty sure that number would be about as close to zero as anything involving human preferences can get.
    Neuhaus likes this.
  7. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    True. The limiting variable is going to be existing pharmaceutical manufacturing capability and how quickly it can be ramped up.

    It will take months, that's for certain.

    Does Russia really have a pharmaceutical industry able to meet Russia's needs and India's as well?

    It looks to me like the US and Europe (Britain and Switzerland in particular) are the world leaders in pharmaceutical R&D. But once a company invents a new drug, where will it be manufactured? Domestically, or overseas in someplace like China? Until the last few decades, the US has had a massive pharmaceutical manufacturing capability, but I sense that's been shrinking. I don't know how fast. So if the US has difficulty meeting even its own domestic demand for new vaccines, most other countries will be in a far worse place. And the leading pharmaceutical countries will not only have to vaccinate their own people, they will have to supply vaccines to the whole rest of the planet as well.

    In fact India might have the ability to manufacture vaccines of their own if enough of the US/European manufacturing capacity has been off-shored there.
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  8. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly

    Given that India is one of the world centers for manufacturing generic pharmaceuticals, this surprised me too.
  9. Neuhaus

    Neuhaus Well-Known Member

    I agree.

    Also, people treat "underlying health conditions" as if everyone affected has leukemia. Some of the "underlying health conditions" that have contributed to death have been hypertension and asthma.

    The callousness that people have been dismissing human life with has been staggering.

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