The University of Phoenix is expecting sanction from the HLC

You may be right. There are certainly some high-profile institutions that focused on enrolling high quantities of students without providing the quality and quantity of resources and services to retain them (not just good quality courses, but good quality student services). An accrediting body placing an institution on notice is usually not a headline (unless it is University of Phoenix), as this is not an uncommon occurrence.

Regarding the "bubble," the latest Babson/Sloan-C report on higher education enrollments (including online enrollments) reported that total higher education enrollments in 2011 fell below the 2010 level (the first time this has occurred in the decade that they have conducted this survey). Online enrollments continued to increase (though at a more moderate rate of 9.3%).

This difference between a University of Phoenix and other institutions "on notice" (most often community colleges or small private universities) is that Apollo is in the position to be able to allocate a large quantity of funds and can reorganize itself to address the issues raised. Public and small private institutions have less money to throw at problems and, more significantly, cannot easily change their culture, organization, etc.

 

I would wager that UOP, as well as any institutions sanctioned, are already familiar with the finding/s (grounds for sanction decision); likely no mystery at all. Nonetheless, the UOP will successfully deal with this issue … so much available capital resource at hand.

 

I'll do you one better.....I used to teach at an online NA school where I finally resigned, because their admissions standards were lax to the point that I had more than one mentally ill student posting maniacal rants in class discussions. One student, in response to an assignment of submitting a 3-5 page paper on what criminological theory they liked the best, submitted a 10,000 word copy & paste article on the history of Buffalo, NY.

I was making a holy fortune, but in good conscience I couldn't participate in that anymore.

 

Some updates on UoP issues raised in this thread:

1. Apollo Group has disclosed that HLC is considering putting UoP "on probation", which is a more severe sanction than being "on notice". However, HLC has not made any final decision, and UoP is currently not under any sanctions at all. According to HLC, a final decision about sanctions will most likely be made at a board meeting on June 27-28.

2. UoP enrollment continues to fall, based on their 2Q13 guidance to investors (the second quarter of UoP's fiscal year runs from Dec to Feb). Their enrollment has now dropped for 11 consecutive quarters.

476,500 3Q 2010
470,800 4Q 2010
438,100 1Q 2011
405,300 2Q 2011
398,400 3Q 2011
380,800 4Q 2011
373,100 1Q 2012
355,800 2Q 2012
346,300 3Q 2012
328,400 4Q 2012
319,700 1Q 2013
300,800 2Q 2013

Since the peak in 2010, UoP has lost more than one-third of its students, or about 175,000 total. That's a big number -- the equivalent of a large multicampus state university system. For example:

 

Well, at least UoP isn't being investigated by the Dept of Education or the Dept of Justice, and at least there's no lawsuits or allegations of insider trading. SO I guess that's good, at least.....

 

More updates ....

1. In the near future, HLC and/or UoP should be making an announcement about the final decision on possible UoP sanctions.

2. UoP enrollments continue to tank. Their enrollment, which was approaching 500,000 in 2010, has fallen through the 400,000 and 300,000 levels, and has not yet stabilized.

476,500 3Q 2010
470,800 4Q 2010
438,100 1Q 2011
405,300 2Q 2011
398,400 3Q 2011
380,800 4Q 2011
373,100 1Q 2012
355,800 2Q 2012
346,300 3Q 2012
328,400 4Q 2012
319,700 1Q 2013
300,800 2Q 2013
287,500 3Q 2013

The latest number reflects UoP's fiscal third quarter, which ran from March through May 2013.

 

July is shaping up to be an interesting month for UoP and Ashford, since HLC and WASC will announce their decisions in July...

 

Wow. If enrollments are plummeting now, I can't imagine what will happen if the powers that be take action against UOP.

 

On a more positive note, the impressive popularity of UoP red socks must be acknowledged.

 

Hahahaha! I'm wearing mine right now!

 

If UoP is placed "On Notice", that is less serious then Probation. On Notice is roughly equivalent to a monitoring report, where schools had to correct deficiencies within an accelerated time period. Moreover, at least Higher Ed knows that something is going to happen at UoP, because UoP has been publicly disclosing the issues with HLC. Even if UoP is placed on Probation, it's not a big surprise, and UoP will have time to address issues.

Ashford however, is a different story altogether. An existing university was denied accreditation from a regionally accreditor. If WASC denies Ashford again, then there's a real mess. BPI's stock would take another beating - and the HLC time clock for establishing substantial presence is ticking.

Which could lead to this...

UoP making a bid to purchase Bridgepoint????

 

Depends on the action. Even putting their accreditation on probation may not have much affect on enrollments. I doubt if that will come up during the heavy-handed sales pitches, and most students won't go looking for it.

 

You have a point there. Rich, you are going to hit the 10K mark sometime soon. We need to have some sort of party...or maybe a roast like we did for Ted?

 

I offered Rich a roast thread at 9,000 posts and he declined.

 

Just received this email from Bill Pepicello:

 

Ah, here's the whole thing:

 

I'm not surprised. Good for them.

 

Another UoP enrollment update

Haven't checked on UoP's quarterly enrollment numbers in a while. But the pattern hasn't changed; they have now experienced 14 consecutive quarters of falling enrollment. Since the peak in 2010, they have lost more than 200,000 students, or nearly 45% of their peak enrollment.

476,500 3Q 2010
470,800 4Q 2010
438,100 1Q 2011
405,300 2Q 2011
398,400 3Q 2011
380,800 4Q 2011
373,100 1Q 2012
355,800 2Q 2012
346,300 3Q 2012
328,400 4Q 2012
319,700 1Q 2013
300,800 2Q 2013
287,500 3Q 2013
269,000 4Q 2013
263,000 1Q 2014

Apollo's fiscal year follows the academic calendar, so the "first quarter of 2014" (the final number above) actually represents September 2013 through November 2013.

When I started tracking these numbers a few years ago, I thought that UoP was facing a significant enrollment dip, but I didn't expect it to go this long.

 

Their tuition is not competitive!

 

Midyear UoP Enrollment Check

Well, something isn't working for them -- because UoP has experienced two more quarters of enrollment decline. That makes it 16 declining quarters in a row, or four years total. Since peak enrollment in 2010, UoP has lost over 49% of its students, and the numbers are still going down.

476,500 3Q 2010
470,800 4Q 2010
438,100 1Q 2011
405,300 2Q 2011
398,400 3Q 2011
380,800 4Q 2011
373,100 1Q 2012
355,800 2Q 2012
346,300 3Q 2012
328,400 4Q 2012
319,700 1Q 2013
300,800 2Q 2013
287,500 3Q 2013
269,000 4Q 2013
263,000 1Q 2014
250,300 2Q 2014
241,900 3Q 2014

Don't know how much lower it can go. New enrollments have also fallen, which implies that the bottom has not yet been reached.

Apollo's fiscal year follows the academic calendar, so the "third quarter of 2014" (the last number in the list above) actually represents March 2014 through May 2014.