The Nixon gambit?

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by nosborne48, Jan 9, 2021.

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  1. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I have a very hard time thinking any court would agree that President Trump can pardon himself. The immediate result would be unchecked executive power, something that the Founders explicitly wanted to avoid. So, if Trump can't pardon himself and Joe Biden has zero interest in pardoning Trump, an effective pardon can be granted by one man only, Vice President Pence.

    Nixon resigned and Ford, Nixon's appointed Vice President, promptly pardoned him. That pardon was one of the factors that cost Ford the election in 1976, by the way, but it’s about the biggest thing Pence could do to reclaim the support of the Trump Base. Right now, they want to lynch him for his "betrayal" of their Dear Leader but they could be brought around if Trump started praising Pence for standing up to...well, anyone who isn't part of the Trump Base. And Pence wants to be President some day.

    So Pence might do it if given the chance. The only way Pence could get the chance, though, would be for Trump to resign this week. Or next, I suppose, but that's cutting things awfully close.

    Would Trump do it?
     
  2. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    The question in my mind is whether or not Pence would agree. Then if he agreed Trump still wouldn't trust his word. If Pence won't agree then Trump will pardon himself, I assume. Ford spent great political capital in pardoning Nixon. Many say it cost him the election. If Pence makes that calculation then I doubt he would agree. I think it is more likely if Pence agrees that they will use the 25th amendment because Trump could regain the presidency if Pence didn't go through with the agreement. On the other hand maybe Trump might just pardon himself and then flat out resign and let Pence pardon him then?
     
  3. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    The payoff for Pence is Trump's support which is a dicey thing. Trump turns on a supporter quicker than a cobra's strike if he feels he is receiving less than total loyalty. But as things stand, Pence's chances at the White House are zero. If he resorts to the 25th Amendment, he'd better move to Indonesia or somewhere equally vast and distant. Pardoning a resigned Trump is his only hope for "redemption" and a peaceful life in Indiana.
     
  4. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Yea, Pence is not in a good position. Trusting that snake for future support (or anything) is a no win proposition.
     
  5. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Per Rush Limbaugh
    25th amendment is for people who due to illness cant function. Trump arguably is not in that state.
    As to speculations about the future, life sometimes is like a wheel that keeps on turning there is time one us up, and then time when one is down as the wheel of life is turning.
     
  6. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Well, that's basically true but invoking the 25th Amendment is a political act not a legal act so it means pretty much whatever Pence and Congress say it does.
     
  7. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Or Pence might decide that his relationship with Trump is beyond repair and that his loyal service to Trump is now a liability. In that case, he might choose to do what he does best, lie low and wait for the storm to blow over.
     
  8. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    For Pence that might indeed be the wisest course so long as Trump doesn’t take further anti-government action.
     
  9. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

     
  10. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    So basically, thinking this out on admittedly pure speculation, Pence faces the exact same dilemma now that he faced when he decided to keep his oath to the constitution instead of gratifying Trump and his supporters only now the stakes are even higher. If Pence can avoid taking a clear stance on the 25 Amendment and on a potential Trump pardon, he will. For Pence the best of many bad potential outcomes is if Trump remains in office so Pence won't have to decide whether to pardon him. He will therefore continue to do as he has done for the last four years; don't rock the boat.
     
  11. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Agreed on all.
     
  12. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    You assume that Trump is guilty but is he? I'm against any violence and disturbed by what happened on Jan 6th.
    The fact is the President didn't mention violence and much less provoked or incite it.
    In the District of Columbia, it’s a crime to “intentionally or recklessly act in such a manner to cause another person to be in reasonable fear” and to “incite or provoke violence where there is a likelihood that such violence will ensue.

    Trump already lining up lawyers to prove he didn't incite or guilty of what happened. The president didn’t commit incitement or any other crime.

    Interesting opinion of a Washington prosecutor
    By Jeffrey Scott Shapiro
    Jan. 10, 2021 1:39 pm ET
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-trump-isnt-guilty-of-incitement-11610303966

    The only way Trump will be convicted if this is going to be purely political act and noting more.
    And appeal to the Supreme court if likely if its allowed.
    In the past case as mentioned above the Supreme Court set the standard for speech that could be prosecuted without violating the First Amendment.
    The court found that Clarence Brandenburg’s KKK comments were “mere advocacy” ...
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2021
  13. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Oh, I don't think so at all! I think a jury could easily find that Trump organized, incited, and directed a violent attack on the congress with the exact intention of keeping it from certifying the electoral vote for Biden. Nor is my opinion quite the same most posters here; I've been a prosecuting attorney before grand and petit juries. But my thoughts have been wandering lately more toward what charge might be made and what the penalty might be. This afternoon I was a bit surprised to realize that, depending upon how the case develops, the penalty could be death.
     
  14. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    In fact, I've come up with at least two legal paths to the death penalty for Trump. Now please understand, no one is suggesting anything like this.

    Yet.
     
  15. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    and, since I am speaking of criminal charges in the courts and not impeachment in the congress, Trump is legally innocent unless and until a jury finds him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
     
  16. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Or if not death, life in prison without parole. It depends upon the law of the jurisdiction.
     
  17. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Oh, Trump is in legal trouble, alright. Bigger trouble than he has ever faced before in his life.
     
  18. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I think all of us who have ever practiced criminal law tend to run over the arguments we might use ourselves if we had the opportunity to prosecute or defend a major criminal defendant. I could do either, I think, but there's really no way of knowing what the actual results would be. Juries are hard to predict.
     
  19. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Finally, I'm thinking only based on the public record. Doubtless Trump would produce any exculpatory evidence he has in court.
     
  20. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Well since I'm far from being a professional in the legal field, I can only share legal opinions of other experienced professionals like you.
    Thanks for taking time to response.
     

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