The end of the world!!!

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussions' started by Kizmet, Jun 1, 2016.

  1. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    Here's an Israeli biological weapons analyst pointing out that that the Wuhan Institute of Virology is China's leading virology research center (hosting China's only declared level 4 containment facility), and that it and another laboratory in the city have long been suspected of having ties to China's covert biological weapons research. He admits that there is no clear evidence tying them to the origin of this disease. (They are probably working overtime to study it after it appeared.)

    I think that the probability of the bioweapons connection being true is still low and that it's basically conspiracy-theory stuff. But it's out there on the internet, including the Chinese language internet where people are claiming that this is a version of the SARS virus deliberately bioengineered to make it more deadly, virulent and difficult to treat, and that kind of talk is making people afraid. It's being countered by internet suggestions (seemingly impromptu and not an organized campaign) that it's a US bioweapons attack.

    China has announced a ban on all foreign travel by Chinese starting Monday. Long distance bus and train lines across China are being shut down. Japan has announced evacuation flights for the 700 or so Japanese in Wuhan. Third confirmed US case in Southern California (an individual recently arrived from Wuhan). At least some of the US evacuation flights from Wuhan are reportedly headed to San Francisco. (I live not far away.) After initially doubting that it could be passed human-to-human, the medical authorities are now saying that people are infectious before they show any symptoms. Physicians in Singapore think that about 20% of those infected will develop severe illness like pneumonia.

    I still think that the reaction that we are seeing isn't really consistent with this just being effectively a new strain of flu (that happens most years) and no worse than that. (That's the kind of line that the WHO is still putting out.) It's clearly something more and the Chinese government appears to know it. I think that the Chinese public is starting to realize it too.

    Here's an anonymous individual who claims to be a medical worker in Wuhan who is claiming that far from the not quite 2,000 cases being publicly acknowledged, the true number is more like 90,000. (And that was yesterday.) No idea what the source for that number is. She says that unless they are isolated, each infected person can infect up to 14 other people, so the disease is growing geometrically and spreading explosively.

    Once again, it's more unofficial social media stuff. But when the conventional government-controlled media isn't considered trustworthy, that's all people have. So rumors proliferate, probably not all of them true.
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2020
  2. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

  3. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator Staff Member

  4. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

  5. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

    I'm not in a panic, but this is the first outbreak that has me concerned about what it might become. While the mortality rate is significantly less than SARS, it's ability to spread appears to be vast. To my knowledge, I'm not sure there has ever been a pandemic mitigation response in the modern world as significant and as vast as what is occurring in Wuhan. Yes, we've had villages and small towns quarantined in Africa, even provinces and some cities of significance. But this appears to be far greater. Even with a low mortality rate, the infection rate appears to be significant. The more it spreads, the greater the chance of it mutating to a more dangerous form - which is reportedly occurring. Even though the mortality rate is currently low, with a quarter of the infected coming down with serious pneumonia... the medical response is inadequate. We're seeing that now in China, with them building multiple field hospitals, refusing to accept new patients, videos of hospital hallways, etc. While our medical system in America is set up to handle the typical annual influenza season and the corresponding 140-810k hospitalizations, this is different. We still have 9.3-45M annual influenza illnesses, even though many of us take reasonable precautions with annual flu vaccine shots. While flu shots are not perfect, they also provide no protection against coronaviruses. It's hard to estimate what the infection rate of this virus is, because the publicly reported numbers are clearly not aligned with what is occurring. If this virus has a higher infection rate than the typical influenza strains we experience and starts to really spread, we have no protection. While the mortality rate is reportedly low, a 3% mortality rate is significant. What's worse though, is that is assuming people receive treatment for their symptoms. With the high percentage that come down with severe pneumonia, our medical system would be strained at best. Which would likely increase the mortality rate, as people would go without treatment. Again, at least here in America, I don't believe we need to panic. I do believe we need to be vigilant and that this does have a disturbing potential.
  6. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    The flu doesn't make people drop dead in the street. (Assuming that's really happening. Lots of social media videos of it.) The official figures suggest maybe a 2 to 3% mortality rate, but other indications suggest it might really be higher. (Which may or may not be true. I really get the impression that the Chinese authorities are trying to control information so as to maintain social stability and avoid panic.) If it spreads easily and kills even a significant minority of the people who contract it, it's concerning.

    The appearance of a new flu strain is fairly common. It doesn't lead countries to lock down entire populations of tens of millions, cause them to build emergency field hospitals or put emergency responders in hazmat suits. Something obviously has the Chinese in crisis mode.

    Too many variables to say for sure what's happening at this point. (Especially when the news sources are unreliable.) It may be something that's relatively minor that's being over-hyped. The worst-case scenarios might indeed start to resemble the subject line of this thread. That latter possibility is what makes it something to watch closely.

    Watch the trailer for this extremely realistic real-science science fiction movie. The scenes here could come to pass.

    Last edited: Jan 28, 2020
  7. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator Staff Member

    Yes it's hard to say exactly what is going on but one news source that is pretty reliable is the South China Morning Post
  8. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator Staff Member

  9. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    In more end-of-the-world news...

    The WHO has proclaimed a global health emergency.

    The first US evacuation flight from Wuhan arrived at March air force base in southern California. The US today announced more evacuation flights from Wuhan where something like 800 American citizens remain.

    Many airlines around the world have cut flights to China or halted them entirely.

    Reports in China of communities even in areas remote from Hubei are setting up impromptu road blocks to prevent outsiders from entering.

    Official figures already show more infections than with SARS. Official figures on deaths are still roughly 1/2 the SARS figure, but are almost certainly being underreported.

    The UK Foreign Office has advised UK citizens who want to leave China to do it now, since travel restrictions preventing foreigners from leaving are likely coming. (I believe there are already restrictions on Chinese.)

    Stories are claiming that official figures on infections and deaths are only reporting verified cases from hospitals, and hospitals in Wuhan are turning most patients away. Rumors on Chinese social media is that hospitals are only taking people with Party credentials. Regular patients tell of going from hospital to hospital for day after day, as their condition worsens, only to be told 'no beds, no test kits, there's nothing we can do for you'. Other hospitals are said to be saying that they can only take patients referred to them by the health ministry. Doctors are reportedly exhausted and extremely frustrated. These (except the last) may just be internet rumors, but they do indicate the growing anger.

    Increasing worry about what this will do to the Chinese economy and to global supply chains for companies like Apple.
  10. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator Staff Member

  11. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    Yesterday, the US State Department issued a Level 4 'Do not travel' travel warning for all of China (a large area). Previously only Wuhan and its province was included under Level 4. The rest of China was Level 3 'reconsider travel'.

    Hong Kong, which is technically part of China, remains at Level 2, 'use increased caution', due to civil unrest.

    A UK evacuation flight dropped off 83 UK nationals at an RAF air field and then flew on to Spain, where most of the other 27 foreign nationals on the plane were from.
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2020
  12. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    Twitter stuff. Not necessarily reliable, but it's what's going around.

    Extraordinary remarks the WHO head may or may not have said in China: "winning the admiration of the world...this is the superiority of the Chinese system, and the experiences are worthy of emulation by other countries".

    Not the kind of doctors you want making a house call-They look like heavily armed police. Wuhan is a major city after all ... crime and police work presumably continue.

    Someone visited Wuhan, returned to Shanghai and then went silent. He was found dead in his apartment. If he did die of coronavirus (he might have died of some other cause), it's significant since there have been no reported coronavirus deaths in Shanghai.

    Anger in Hong Kong over mask shortage

    Street black market for masks in Hong Kong

    Masks are running out in Japan too

    Sri Lankan evacuation flight

    People from other parts of China who were visiting Wuhan aren't welcomed when they return home

    Neighbors react badly when cases are confirmed in a building

    People being quarantined don't like it and try to escape

    These Wuhan doctors aren't dead, they are exhausted.

    Baby said to be infected with coronavirus

    Hong Kong's 14th coronavirus case had only visited Shenzhen and never visited Wuhan or Hubei. He just returned from a tour to Tokyo and Yokahama (where he was probably infectious).

    There's talk that Hong Kong doctors are going on strike tomorrow or Monday, to demand the border with China be closed.

    Hong Kong health system is getting very stressed:

    Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airlines can't find any more suppliers able to sell them hand sanitizer and have authorized flight attendants to wear plastic gloves.

    Unofficial Hong Kong posters about masks and how to dispose of them



    Last edited: Feb 1, 2020
  13. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator Staff Member

  14. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

    Were there early warnings about the virus? According to one article, there was. While the media outfit has tried to give the appearance of independence in the past, this still comes across as unexpected for them.
  15. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

    Above story is starting to be picked up across different media platforms.
  16. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

  17. nyvrem

    nyvrem Member

  18. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator Staff Member

    Next . . . SHARKNADO!

  19. nyvrem

    nyvrem Member

  20. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    According to Baba Vanga prophecies in 1995 - the blind old woman is considered Bulgarian Nostradamus.

    For the year 2020 she predicted an outbreak of disease, she called it old diseases will outbreak again - like Chuma (bubonic plage) a vaping caught will
    reappear in 2020 with high rates of sick.

    "In 2020, there will be a lot of complicated astronomical energy on Earth. She especially mentioned a year of five 2's.. 02. 22, 2020 or 12 22 2020
    the Sun will darken for 3 years because of the ash rising from the earth, and water will speel out of the borders of the sea ( astroid?).

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