Tea leaves?

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by nosborne48, Aug 24, 2020.

  1. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    I think that Nosborne is placing too much emphasis on the idea of a "base", without enough consideration of why those "bases" do or don't exist. But we've been over that.

    I agree though that Trump has an advantage in terms of the Electoral College for entirely different reasons.

    Look at DC. I'd expect Biden to get maybe 80+% of the vote there given the large black population and the countless government apparatchiks. But all that he needs to win is 50% plus one vote. So some 30+ percent of the DC Biden vote will essentially be wasted votes.

    One of the problems that the Democrats face is that their vote is concentrated disproportionately in large urban states like New York State and California. Biden is likely to run up well in excess of 50% + 1 in those states. Wasted Democratic votes. Meanwhile the Republicans are likely to be winning more states by smaller margins in more of the country. We saw it in 2016, when Trump won 30 of the 50 states.

    I suspect that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate, based on the argument just given. (Smaller margins of victory in more states.)

    But the House is going to be tougher, since more House seats are the products of very peculiar small hyper-urban districts like the one in the Bronx and Queens that coughed up the hairball called AOC. The kind of places that produce people like Maxine Waters or Congresswoman-for-life Nancy Pelosi.

    Some of those districts regularly vote near 100% Democrat. The more competitive elections are the Primaries, not the General whose result is already known before the voting even happens. And when a machine controls the party apparatus, as it does in Nancy Pelosi's San Francisco, we get Congresspeople-for-life. But too much vote-wasting like that and the Democrats' House hopes will start to suffer nationally.

    In order to be most competitive nationally, a party needs to have smaller margins of victory in more places.
  2. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Trump typically repeats each lie many times. It is not over 20,000 unique lies but over 20,000 false and misleading statements most being repeated many times.


    If it's believed that this number is only due to politics and Obama lied as much as Trump does then I'll respond that I don't remember any right wing media claiming that Obama lied so often. If the issue is that it's an untrustworthy source in your opinion then all need be done is look at the claim that Trump is currently making about 23 false or misleading claims per day on average and look at an article that does a fact check of one of his rally's. The difference between Trump and previous Presidents is not only the vast number of lies, it is that Trump has no shame and keeps repeating the same false and misleading statements over and over.
  3. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Many claims easily can be checked our days. What they say is important but to me what they do is more important.
    And President Trump achieved a lot, too bad left Dem's operative media is not reporting this.
    They are busy preparing to rip apart the next woman candidate to SCOTUS nominee. I hope the suburban woman will pay attention
    to what Dems are about to do and vote accordingly even if they been brainwashed by the liberal colleges as many of them are college grads.
  4. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Of course, that is true. What do you good folks think of this?

    Trump said today that he would not promise a peaceful transition of power if he lost the election. He referenced the fact that he has been saying that the Democrats are cheating and trying to steal the election.

    That is his statement. He makes these assertions about the Democrats and the unreliability of mail-in ballots with zero evidence to back it up.

    Here's my questions. Do you believe these assertions by President Trump? Would you support him if he refused to give up power or tried to seize ballots before they could be counted in key states should he try something like that? Isn't it really Trump that is really trying to cheat in this election by having the post office slow down the mail and telling his supporters to vote twice, once by mail and a second time in person?
  5. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    President Trump:
    "Well, we're going to have to see what happens," Trump said when asked whether he'd commit to a peaceful transition, one of the cornerstones of American democracy.

    Hostile media goes on the spin right away.

    I read it, as a warning to the Dems, to not try to cheat on the elections.

    If President Trump loses the elections fairly I'm sure he will step down.
    This is why it's important that SCOTUS fully stuffed has all 9 Justices. As it may be required to make elections decision.

    Everybody knows based on what transpired in the last 4 years that he has a good reason to suspect another attempt
    to remove him by deceptions. Faske Dosier, FISA warrants based on the fake dossier, other conspiracies, and hostile left media for the last 4 years.

    Remember this:

    Bernie Sanders' supporters have filed a class-action lawsuit against the Democratic National Committee, accusing them of working to keep Sanders out of the White House, and demanding retribution for their donations. Berniecrats say the DNC always wanted Clinton, and the leaked DNC emails prove the process was rigged against Sanders.
  6. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    President Trump full quote:

    "We're going to have to see what happens. You know that. I've been complaining very strongly about the ballots. And the ballots are a disaster, Get rid of the ballots and you'll have a very peaceful — there won't be a transfer, frankly, there'll be a continuation. The ballots are out of control. You know it. And you know who knows it better than anybody else? The Democrats know it better than anybody else."

    Is the full quote.

    I don't see any relevance of the Bernie Sanders lawsuit to this situation? His lawsuit was regarding DNC rules governing DNC activities he thought were unfair, not DNC cheating. Especially since that lawsuit was thrown out in 2017.

    Here's my questions again.
    Do you believe these unsupported assertions by President Trump?
    Would you support him if he refused to give up power or tried to seize ballots before they could be counted in key states should he try something like that?
    Isn't it really Trump that is really trying to cheat in this election by having the post office slow down the mail and telling his supporters to vote twice, once by mail and a second time in person?
  7. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    I read it, as a warning to the Dems, to not try to cheat on the elections.
    If I was a president and had strong evidence of cheating that affected elections results, I would take it to the court and abide by the court ruling.

    I see full relevance to Bernie lawsuit - cheaters internally can be cheaters externally.
  8. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    I don't know. Rock/Paper/Scissors/Lizard/Spock, perhaps?
    Maniac Craniac and SteveFoerster like this.
  9. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    No, it isn't. You know that.
  10. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    The DNC was not cheating or even accused of cheating. They were accused of having rules that favored Hillary over Bernie. Those were DNC rules governing DNC activities that were followed. How is that relevant to this situation?

    I'm really curious whether or not folks believe Trumps assertions in that quote. Do you believe the Democrats are cheating? If Trump had strong evidence that the Democrats were cheating there is no doubt that he would take them to court and also make sure that the facts were plastered all over the media.

    There's no doubt, is there, that Trump will claim the election was unfair and the Democrats were cheating if he loses? That is what he claimed in 2016 and 2017 and he won! I mean he is saying that now, don't you think he will continue after November 3 especially if he loses! Do you really think that the Democrats are cheating?

    Isn't Trump the one that is really cheating out in the open when he tells his supporters to vote twice and is slowing down the mail?
  11. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    As a Canadian, I'm just watching from the sidelines, but whenever I hear this from the Trump camp, I'm reminded of the ad nauseam/ad infinitum repetition of the "Crooked Hillary" mantra in 2016.

    “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it....It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” - Joseph Goebbels
  12. Mac Juli

    Mac Juli Well-Known Member

    As Harry Frankfurter pointed out, the biggest enemy of the truth is not a lie. A lie somwhow respects the truth as it is its contrary. Bullshit does not even do this, it makes the truth completely irrelevant. If interested, read "On Bullshit" by him! Trump did, and if not, he is just a natural-born!
    Johann likes this.
  13. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    Thanks, Mac. I located the paper and will read it in the morning - Looks interesting, but it's 2 am now. Note: I found a copy on the Cal. State U. Dominguez Hills site. That's the school that offered a well-known Distance MA in Humanities years before anyone else. It ran for many years and was well-priced, high quality and very popular. Times changed and the program was cancelled. There are a couple of threads on the course and at least one on the cancellation here at DI.

    One distinguished grad of this program is Dr. Marina Bear, wife of noted Distance Education authority and long-time DI member, Dr. John Bear.
    Thread here: https://www.degreeinfo.com/index.php?threads/farewell-to-the-cal-state-dominguez-hills-hux-external-ma-in-humanities.49935/#post-539544
    Mac Juli likes this.
  14. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    If there no strong evidence he will step down if he loses the elections.
    That's my take on this.
    Yes, Trumps assertion is exactly this, he generally distrusts other ways of voting, other than in person.
    As to cheating. Dem's 4 years of trying to destroy Trump and the people around him is sufficient to distrust them.
    Well, there was a lot of dirty politics in the last 4 years.
    The fake dossier, illegitimate FISA warrants, Russia collusion that turn out didn't happen. Russian attempts to influence elections have been proven unsuccessful or insignificant.
    Partizan impeachment that was a sham. Spying on Trump, and so many more attempts. And the left media attacks non stop. Dem's trying to destroy Justices nominees.
    Many GOP voters distrust Dem's and despise them for the way they acted last 4 years. And I think many Democrats are not happy with the behavior and direction of their party.
    Dem's now intimidating senators at their homes and much more.
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2020
  15. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Didn't Dem's try to reverse the 2016 elections results?
    Why should they be trusted? Both camps distrust each other.
    I just wish the elections and after elections are peaceful. US democracy prevails.

    If anything I want to see our country united as in the United States.
    Maniac Craniac likes this.
  16. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    No, they didn't. You can take off the tinfoil hat now.
  17. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    :) On what planet you lived in the last 4 years?
  18. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    But they did. The Clinton campaign encouraged electors pledged to Trump not to vote for him, to be "Hamilton electors" in support of the results of the popular vote. (This backfired when only two of Trump's electors were faithless, whereas several of hers were.)
  19. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    "Dems", at the time, were the Obama administration. Clinton conceded the very next morning. Op-eds and a Change.org petition is not seriously trying to overturn elections. Prepwork to de-legitimize absentee voting by Trump campaign, right now, on the other hand...
  20. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    Then why are you trolling a thread about another country's domestic politics?

    You don't have to hear it from the "Trump camp", you can hear it from Donna Brazile, the former Chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee.


    That depends on the assumption that something is a lie. That can't just be assumed, it needs to be argued.

    And frankly, doing so would be off topic for this thread. This thread is about how Degreeinfo participants speculate the upcoming election will turn out and why they think so.

    Except that nobody has used or proposed using all the powers of the state to suppress dissent.


Share This Page