Tea leaves?

According to FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, Biden's chances of winning at least 300 EC votes is 75%. His chances of winning 400 votes is at 25%, the same as Trump's chances of eking out a win.

Yup.

 

I'll plead guilty to that charge.

I don't really know. This thing could unfold in many different ways. Just too hard to predict with any kind of confidence.

My gut tells me that he will keep the states he won last time. I just don't see any convincing reason why any significant number of people who voted for him last time will cross back over to the Democrats, who don't seem to be putting any effort into trying to be more attractive to those voters. (As I argued up-thread, nominating Biden was probably intended as outreach, but the BLM riots and defund-the-police stole all that thunder. Biden hasn't done anything to visibly distinguish himself from that agenda.)

I sense that the Trump campaign thinks that Minnesota is in play, given the Minneapolis riots and the fact that Trump only narrowly lost there in 2016. He sees possibilities in places like Nevada and New Hampshire too. He might surprise and win Virginia.

But I don't really know how things will turn out on election night. Assuming that anything conclusive happens on election night. What I suspect might happen is that Trump will win on election night, but then over the next few weeks more and more mail-in votes will be magically discovered and pulled out of somebody's sleeve. These votes will be overwhelmingly for Biden, tipping things the other way. Nobody will know for sure who cast the votes or whether they are legal votes. Then there will be all kinds of legal challenges and accusations of voter fraud. So the whole process will end up totally tainted.

No matter how things turn out in November, I don't expect that the public will fully accept the results. So our national stability will continue to unravel in a way that's unprecedented in US history. I'm increasingly worried about the future of our country.

 

That's how it looks to me, anyway. What keeps nagging at the back of my mind is Biden's apparent failure to amass a base of supporters of his own. Those on the couch in 2016 will remain on the couch in 2020 I think.

 

Speaking of Fivethirtyeight.com, although I am addicted to that site, it's not clear to me what the purpose of their endeavors might be. They can't ever be wrong; they always assign a percentage change of either candidate winning. So...what's the point?

 

Biden stated directly that he opposes defund the police and condemns rioting and violence. No matter what he does, though, Tucker Carson, hierophant, and other closet white nationalists on GOP side can simply overlook that and say that he "hasn't done anything to visibly distinguish himself from that agenda". It becomes easier when your side can simply lie, and MSM out of misplaced sense of "balance" can't call you out. Isn't it, hierophant?

Yeah, because you (and this includes you personally) keep doing everything in your power to taint it. And has been doing so all the way since 2016.
I already said Trump deserves an order from Putin, the same he gives his top propagandists (I believe that's "For service to the Fatherland"). His groupies deserve some kind of medal of this type, too. And so do some crazier Bernie groupies.

 

This community member was the one who originated a neat ad hominem attack on me as a foreigner. Another more impressionable member followed his lead and eventually got himself banned.

Regardless, this is how I see the little he slips out about his position. I don't think it is THAT important to know exactly which group he's bigoted about (who are not his "real, patriotic Americans); there's no good words for this way of thinking other than "white nationalist" (other than even more incediary ones). I'm a foreign commie to him, regardless.

 

Strange to say, it appears that I am not at all alone in thinking Trump will win. Most Americans seem to agree. Very strange. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-leads-but-plurality-thinks-trump-will-win-election-poll

 

Stanislav here is another take, It's a lot about jobs.
For many Americans, it's not about race its about foreigners taking jobs. I'm telling first hand what I hear from my friends and family.
Example:
One of my friends was hired as a contractor for a major company, after about a year he was converted to a full-time employee, and in the next 2 years had excellent performance reviews.
The manager left the company the new manager was form India, slowly all the "white" and " Hispanic" etc engineers, and IT /Systems professionals got replaced by India H1 visa professionals.
My friend suddenly was getting bad reviews and was picked on and before he knew it he was terminated, replaced by H1 via a professional from India.

US citizens lost their jobs, they demand jobs to stay in the US, and locally and not be outsourced to foreigners. They will vote for the candidates who will pursue this agenda.
So for example - Trump officials rush to make it tougher for skilled foreign workers to gain visas.
I think this is fair for the American workers, legal immigrants with the right to work int he USA on the path to citizenship, etc.
I think in every country its citizens must be first to have a job and be protected.

Most of the illegal immigrant's accusation about racism is really about not being happy with immigration laws when they are enforced.
Like Clintons Immigration reform law of 1996. Many times Hispanic agents deporting Hispanics and nonhispanics.

This is about people who want and love their country. Are there white and Black etc racists group, yes we all know about it.
White people have a lot of challenges to land a job especially in blue states, Where my wife is working they have now a program that hired employees, guess what they are 100% all black.

Is it University of California Berkeley that has a minority day where if you are not minority you are not allowed on to campus?
There is racism against white people as well, but you don't hear about it.
Minority graduates may have a better future our days then non minorities.

 

Not strange at all. Dem's are still disconnected from the most Americans.
Read my response to Stanislav. Its about Americans who want someone to protect them and not sell them out.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-officials-rush-tougher-skilled-180010399.html

 

It's about probabilities and bringing some clarity to the myriad polling going on. They're track record is excellent.

 

Why not? We always have, even in 2000.

 

"Dem's" are, quite literally, the majority of Americans. Let this sink in: Republican demagoguery is literally "othering" the majority of population.

 

H1 visa program is in shambles, and is not a big factor in job market at all. Also, market for IT is quite good right now.
Let me offer this take: IT work is inherently stressful, with it's need to constantly upskill. Many people get burned out. I get it, I felt it myself (and was happy to step out from industry, first into government work and finally, education). It is also quite understandable to blame someone for the stress and work problems. Understandable, but not right.

Look, I've met hordes of co-workers from India. Not a particular fan of them (not counting about 90% of my grad-level class right now). Yet what they do is compete, just like everyone else. And if folks with native English and local networks from birth feel they can't compete, maybe they should pick up a book and learn Python or something.

(also, recognize that this is exactly the rhetoric about Donbass coal miners a certain country uses to kill your former compatriots. I don't want to "understand Donbass".)

Killing work visas will be a BOON for outsourcing. I don't know how this is not clear. This is not about helping workers; this is scapegoating plain and simple.

Some people are opportunistic. Also, there's racism. Not a contradiction.
Are you holding up immigration enforcement law of 1996 as some kind of ideal? 'Cause I'm not sure I agree. Things need updating.

Thing is, if it were true it'll be an open-and-shut case for discrimination based on pattern of practice. And right-wingers prefer to bring convoluted suits against alleged AA bias in Harvard admissions. So yeah, not buying it. Employment numbers do not back you up, incidentally.

How dare they want to feel as NOT a minority! Listen to yourself. (for the record, I'm skeptical about this particular idea; but cmon, check your privilege!).

Bullshit. Young people who have brighter future are those with better support system, which is a form of generational wealth. Which ain't minorities.

 

Are Democrats the majority of Americans? Maybe. The question is whether this Democratic majority will turn out and vote.

 

Your views are theoretical, mine are practical, or actual.
My children born and raised in the USA. They have friends from all communities (races). So there is a mix of a lot of white poor and wealthy kids, Hispanic, and Asian, etc.
The support system is mostly working families. Some friends of my kids are in Harvard on full scholarship, Single mom kids who struggled to provide, but they excelled academically.
I see what's happening and there are no privileged white people but privileged people of any rce and politics and politicians who use race for politics among all races.

 

"I am right, because my views are correct". Marvelous.
Except don't flatter yourself; you don't have friends from all communities. I also have friends of all races, and they are successful - because I met them at the university. Selection bias. In general: try to study statistics, it helps.
Actually, you could have noticed the fact that success in life depends on your background just from life in exUSSR. Or in general, not actively keeping eyes shut. I mean, c'mon.

 

For a right-wing demagogue, a "dem" is anyone left of Trump voters. And that's a majority.
Right ideology have no right to speak of all Americans. Even the majority wouldn't have that right. And they are not it.

P. S. Hillary won the popular vote. Just taking the slightest chance to remind people of this.