Tea leaves?

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by nosborne48, Aug 24, 2020.

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  1. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Perhaps that poll has the same source (Facebook?) as your earlier poll that you got suckered into copying off of social media (I assume) and posting here in this thread about 7 pages ago?
     
  2. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    What would happen to the Trump movement in 2024? They will move on. Depends on what will happen, he will enter history as most controversial.
    There will be a new president of the USA in 2024.
    Trump's movement will honor fair elections outcome.
     
  3. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    What will happen to Republicans in 2024 when President Trump will complete his 2nd term.
    They will continue in their opposition to Marxism and radical changes if occurs. And may regain the support of the nation.
    I wish the USA many good presidents.
     
  4. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    I posted the poll information a week ago or so with was ignored by you.
    The Gallup Poll was taken from a poll in the field from September 14 to September 29 -- shows that 56% of Americans said they consider themselves "better off" today than they were four years ago.
    A remarkable %.
    This sent CNN and others to scramble damage control trying to play with the #'s.
    Trump's job approval for the month of September is 44%. Considering COVID 19 and all the hardships and protests in 2020 this wasn't that bad.
    Most polls in 2016 were wrong.
    Historically Gallap did very well.
    Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
    Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the election winner. However, there were some close elections that it missed, It predicted the 2016 elections but missed the popular vote.
    19 days left.
     
  5. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Joe Biden leads President Trump by 11 percentage points, 53 percent to 42 percent, in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News national poll of registered voters released late Wednesday 10/14/2020.
    Trump improved from 14% to 11%.
     
  6. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Sorry, this is not true. I did not ignore the apparently fake poll you posted on page 18. I first responded to it that I didn't see any relevance that it might have on current political topics. Then I thought to myself that I'd like to check some background on the poll and searched for the poll itself and couldn't find it on the Internet. I posted twice that the poll was apparently fake made up nonsense which you ignored both times. You responded to one of my posts near the top of page 19 and even copied part of my post which said,

    "I did a Google search looking for "American Liberals Supporting Pro-Diversity Cultural Deconstruction" and came up empty. Lerner, did you perchance see that on social media and get sucked in by Vladimir Putin's cohorts that are spewing lies?"

    The truth of the matter is that I did about a half dozen different Google searches and none found any reference to this apparently made up poll that you believed and posted in this thread. But you just ignored that portion of my post about you posting the fake poll graph.

    You apparently copied a fake made up poll here from somewhere, I mean I don't believe you made it up yourself. I'll guess you copied it off of social media where most of this kind of stuff thrives.

    I'm very familiar with Gallup polls and your characterization that Gallup indicates Trump is ahead in the election is false. Your characterization about CNN and others scrambling because of some Gallup poll is amusing. It is difficult to believe that you really believe that kind of stuff when you write it but I'll guess that is the "news feed" you get on social media?

    Fivethirtyeight.com gives Trump a 13% chance of winning so he very well could win. The trend for these polling numbers over the past couple weeks is not going in the good direction for President Trump though. But, who knows, he might still come up with an October surprise that turns it all around? (The Durham report flopped and now it looks like the unmasking nonsense has also flopped but something else could still happen?)
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2020 at 3:00 PM
  7. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Time for another XKCD:

    [​IMG]

    https://xkcd.com/2370/
     
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  8. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Bill, I meant the Gallup Poll results for the September that I posted sometime in the last two weeks. 46% is the highest since May 2020.
    My characterization is looking at 2020 is a very difficult year.
    But it’s clear to me that the vast majority of people who think this is over, truly believe the polls. I don’t, and I never have. And there were times that I was wrong.
    The fact that he is up from 38 to 42 to 46% two weeks before the debate? That’s big.
    Gallup reported that the people participating in their poll think Trump’s gonna win 56 to 40%. Why is this? (Pre debate)
     
  9. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Interesting effects of polling.
    A friend told me over the phone that he is not going to bother voting.
    I asked him why, he replied my candidate is leading in all the polls and it's clear he is going to win, so why should I bother with voting?
    And I was thinking if my candidate is trailing in most polls will this encourage
    his supporters to show up in larger #'s?
     
  10. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    I'm reminded of a story about Walter Williams, the economist:

    Williams: "I don't vote. The odds that my single vote will affect the outcome are so low that those hours are better spent doing something else."
    Student: "But what if everyone thought that way?"
    Williams: "Then I'd vote."
     
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  11. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    A first for me in the last 10 years, last night CNN.
    Maybe not all is lost for CNN? Wolf surprised me on this one.

     
  12. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    IMHO, very few. They were there before Trump and will remain long after Trump. The difference is that Trump gave them--from the power of the presidency--an identity and a voice. They're not going to want to give that up and go back to being subservient to mainstream Republicans. Instead, I anticipate the rise of a new authoritarian figurehead for them to follow. But not all the way to the presidency (again).
     
  13. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    Please note that this number is on the move, and not in a good way for the incumbent. It was 21% just two weeks ago.
     
  14. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    This seems to be a mixture of half thoughts?

    I don't think most people think the election is over? I have to assume, the 38, 42, 46%, figures are referring to job approval ratings? Perhaps that is "big" but the current head to head polling trends over the past two weeks are a much more important indicator, I would say.

    The 56 to 40% thinking that Trump is going to win is not a real indicator that Trump is going to actually win. That can't be something real to hang any hopes on that I can see? It is obviously an after effect of the 2016 election. The polling was not really that far off in 2016. Trump did lose the popular vote by over 3 million votes after all. What happened is that the James Comey orchestrated October surprise nudged the numbers just enough in those key battle ground states to put Trump over the top. Just some 77,000 votes in those battle ground states separated Trump from an election defeat. That is razor thin. The undecided voter percentages are much smaller this election and so it's less likely that an October surprise would have as big of an impact this year. Although I'm sure that Trump is still trying. The Durham report fell though and the really rather silly unmasking thing didn't pan out. Perhaps Donald Trump is not as competent as I thought and won't be able come up with any last minute surprise? It won't be because of a lack of trying or insufficient dishonesty though, we can be sure of that, can't we? :)

    Look at the snake chart on fivethirtyeight.com, those battle ground state percentages are not that close this election cycle. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
    Note here from the snake chart are the 7 battle ground states this year. Pennsylvania crosses the 270 electoral vote line and so is in the exact middle of the snake chart. I've included below the three states on each side of Pennsylvania.

    State Trump to Biden
    Michigan 46% to 53%
    Nevada 46% to 53%
    Wisconsin 46% to 53%
    Penn 47% to 53%
    Florida 48% to 51%
    Arizona 48% to 51%
    N.C. 48% to 51%

    Of course, it doesn't mean that Biden has won by any means. It is just percentages and probabilities at this point. Traditionally the Republicans are better at getting their vote out. So everyone has to vote.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2020 at 10:12 PM
  15. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Very reasonable, like your assessment. I think there's a real chance, especially if Trump loses a close election, that Trump will become an active political pundit. Trump obviously looks up to Rush Limbaugh. I think he might see himself playing that kind of role in politics over the next few years. Maybe Trump himself might even be that authoritarian figurehead that you mention, at least until someone else comes along? Of course, this assumes that he does in fact lose the election and isn't immediately brought up on charges of tax fraud or something.
     
  16. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    That will be hard while in exile in a country that does not permit extradition. But, okay.
     
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  17. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    Oh, I don't know. When one side resorts to cheating and attacking the process, you can be relatively sure they've decided they can't win the game as it is played.
     
  18. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    We have 19 days left. We will see what happens soon enough.

    BTW, silence on Biden emails. Its possible Biden are compromised by China.
    Pattern on how Chaina operates, is via a relatives of the targeted principals such as VP.
    How big of a national security risk?
    This story should be checked seriously, but it may not be because it's not about Trump but about Biden.
    Some Senators are starting a prob, in censorship during the collections of huge proportions.
     
  19. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    It's also possible that Biden is secretly a Reptoid. And roughly as likely.
     
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  20. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Well, Belarus is in turmoil, because of possible cheating in elections.
    But you are correct since 2016 one side the Democrats been complaining about cheating, stealing the elections by the Russians.
     

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