Putin is now in the middle of a civil war

The thug who runs the Wagner Group has had enough and so, it appears, are the citizens of Rostov on Don. But you don't run a modern army of 25,000 troops on good intentions. The guy wouldn't challenge his former good buddy Putin unless he's in it to win. That means someone has agreed to supply him. Who, I wonder.

 

Guess that meanwhile, in the Ukraine, popcorn is distributed...

 

Check the guns. Maybe you'll find "Hua Qing" or perhaps "ChongQing Chanfeng" on some of 'em. Possibly North Korean-made Type 88-2 assault rifles, too. Help from distant lands... it comes at a high price, though. And they can spot a winner.

 

And maybe this is how it ends but I'm having a hard time working out what a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine might look like.

 

I too am having a hard time figuring out what a peace deal might look like if Putin was gone. Going back to the lines from 2015 seems unlikely now that the Ukrainian army has been built, buffed, and activated. Taking Crimea back I think might be extra difficult though. Maybe Russia would pull out of all of Ukraine except for Crimea?

 

"If Putin was gone..." That's a wonderful, inspiring phrase, Bill. There should be a song. It'd make the "Great American Songbook" in a DAY! Might be a good writing idea for Bruce Springsteen, James Taylor, Carole King... Taylor Swift....

 

Russia really can't negotiate over Crimea because of their Navy bases there.

 

I'm not so sure about any of this.

How does a 25,000-person army with no air support prevail against the Russian Armed Forces?

Worse, is this even real?

 

Might not be. Apparently the Wagner thug has called off his rebellion.

 

I think it means more politically/culturally than anything else. It seems they were uncontested in their march to Moscow even as Putin himself asked for others to stop them and take care of it for Russia. As it relates to Ukraine we have heard for months of Wagner’s prowess and of how only they were getting anything done. Did people, including Russia’s military, stand down to Wagner out of fear or because they too were hoping something would change? I think, and I am hopeful, it will continue to create internal conversation about possibilities for what the Russian people want for their future.

Secondarily, what will Wagner’s use or value for Russia be going forward? I can’t imagine they will be autonomous, even as they are going to be given the “option” to conscript, and will probably be embedded with other units and may not be nearly as effective as they have been so far.

 

Putin hired an ex-con and allowed him to build a large, private army of ex-cons.

 

Or maybe a whole Musical. "If Putin Was Gone" could be the biggest hit on Broadway since "Springtime for Hitler" (The Producers). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Springtime_for_Hitler

 

Prigozhin very well could be worse than Putin. Hard to say though. For example, I understand that he likes to sometimes dish out punishment to his men personally. He sometimes does this by smashing their skulls in with a sledge hammer. Perhaps more ruthless than Putin, less subtle than Putin, probably less politically savvy than Putin. My guess is that Putin will eventually have him executed, likely poisoned by an agent. The big question in my mind is whether or not Prigozhin will be able to continue his money making scheme in Africa. If he was smart he would sneak off to Africa to be with his army.

 

It's hard to say. The Russians aren't very good at having leaders. First, the Romanovs stayed in power for 400 years. Then, after overthrowing them, it didn't take long for the Soviets to prevail and...replace the tsars. Then, finally, the system collapsed upon itself and they got a little taste of democracy and freedom. But that didn't last long with Tsar Vladimir. So, who's to say?

And who's to say what Russia will even look like? In the last breakup they lost their allies and their SSRs. This one might find seven or eight breakaway republics. Russia as it has been known for most of Western civilization could cease to exist.

 

According to Obama interview with CNN

"There is a reason why there was not an armed invasion of Crimea. (Really ?????)
Because Crimea was full of Russian speakers, and there was some sympathy to the view that Russia was representing its interest. The Rada [Ukrainian parliament – ed.] at the time still had a number of Russian sympathizers.

The thesis that there was no military invasion of Crimea was repeatedly refuted by Putin himself, who recognized the so-called "green men" – military men without insignia – to be a part of the Russian army.

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