Putin is now in the middle of a civil war

This evolved on Sat. From Ukraine point of view it would have been better if the Wagner and Countries Russian forces collide and killed each other.

Under the deal announced Saturday by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will go to neighboring Belarus, which has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Charges against him of mounting an armed rebellion will be dropped.

The government also said it would not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part, while those who did not join in were to be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry. Prigozhin ordered his troops, many of whom had been fighting alongside Russian regular soldiers in Ukraine, back to their field camps.
By Sunday morning there were still no reports of Prigozhin arriving in Belarus. Many other questions remained unanswered, including whether Prigozhin would be joined in exile by any of Wagner’s troops and what role, if any, he might have there.

Now there are reports that Belarus Lukashenco plain landed in Turkey so there is speculations in that area.

 

https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1672168437026545668?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1672168437026545668%7Ctwgr%5E0c752182efdd54d1b043f119dba7bfcd8ff88a2c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.eurointegration.com.ua%2Feng%2Fnews%2F2023%2F06%2F23%2F7164292%2F

 

One must keep in mind that the context in Ukraine in 2014 was far different from the context now. Prior to Zelensky the Ukranian government was very corrupt. It took a while for Zelensky to clean it up. Yes there were green uniformed Russian soldiers but the take over of Crimea was less an armed invasion than it was a take over without any push back.

 

I don't think I'd trust Putin to keep his end of any bargain.

 

I think Crimea is the key to any settlement between Ukraine and Russia. (This assumes there will be a "Russia" post-Putin.)

I in no way endorse Russia's land-grab of Crimea. It was criminal. But....

Crimea is historically Russian. The Ukrainian SSR came into being in 1917, making it distinct from Russia (while remaining in the USSR). Crimea remained in the Russian SSR. It was ceded to Ukraine in 1954. (It's messier than that historically, but that's the basic idea.) After the breakup of the USSR, Crimea was "independent" briefly before Ukraine absorbed it. Thus....

More than 3/4 of Crimeans are ethnic Russians who speak Russian as their first language. Crimea has been a part of Russia for most of its history.

I could see it going to Russia officially as part of a settlement.

 

2.6k

Niamh Cavanagh
·Reporter
Updated Mon, June 26, 2023 at 8:47 AM PDT

British security forces told the Telegraph on Monday that Russian intelligence services had threatened harm to the families of Wagner leaders who were participating in the mutiny. This new information could be a potential explanation as to why Prigozhin called off the march to Moscow.

Insights from British intelligence also claim that Putin is now looking to absorb Wagner soldiers into the country’s military and dismiss all top Wagner commanders. The report cited a British intelligence assessment that about 8,500 Wagner fighters were involved in the mutiny, contradicting public reports that the number was closer to 25,000.

 

For days I've been wondering a) how Prigozhin could possibly think he could defeat the Russian army with a tiny force with no air cover and b) whether or not this was a ruse to get Wagner into Belarus on a pretense so they could attack Ukraine on a second front, giving Belarus cover. ("It wasn't us!") Then, when Ukraine retaliates, Belarus will have a pretense for attacking Ukraine and we're off!

Now there are reports that Wagner is building encampments in Belarus near Ukraine. Whatever could that be for (if true)?

Lukashenko is an idiot. This could go sideways quickly. On the other hand, I don't think Putin will try to defend Belarus if NATO decides to do something about this.

 

That is simplistic to the point of being completely wrong. If we are talking about who has the most "rightful" claim to the peninsula, that would be the Crimean Tatar people, victims of Stalin's genocidal forcible relocation. It's not "historically Russian"; it was part of the Golden Horde and its successor Crimean Khanate far longer than that of Russia. Good portion of people colonizing it in Russian Empire were from Ukraine.

Russification is the result of deliberate imperial policy, including Sürgünlik of the Tatars. I do not see how sacrifice of any part of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine could be justified as part of any kind of... settlement. The fact that they were successful in ethnic cleansing in the past is not a valid argument.

 

Claims of historical rights of one people or another to a piece of territory are largely nonsense. No one is where they were at the Beginning of All Things. Stubborn insistence leads to endless conflict. The question about Crimea isn't to whom it "rightfully" belongs. The question is whether a peace can be arrived at that will be acceptable to both parties with Crimea in one camp or the other.

The much larger barrier to a peace agreement is that no one in his right mind will trust Putin.

 

Leaving Crimea in Russian hands would allow Putin to continue the renewed persecution of the Crimean Tatars. Methinks it's a significant piece of the puzzle. Certainly it's a better point than "it has Russian-speaking population therefore it belongs to Putin". This doesn't even work as an argument for the British Empire.

 

No. I'm good with it. It's Russian and it will likely stay that way.

 

Normally, I like what you've got to say. But... yikes!

Should the US go take over New Zealand now because it has English-speaking people as the majority? Maybe the US owns Canada?

If we go by historical maps, Lithuania probably has more of a historical claim to parts of Ukraine than Russia does.

 

Hold on a minute, Rich never said that he was pleased that Russia had taken over Crimea. Russia is extra fond of Crimea because it gives them better control of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov (or whatever it's called). If Ukraine agreed to a peace deal where Russia pulled out of eastern Ukraine but kept Crimea I would be very happy the war was over.

 

They had that since 2014 when they invaded. They shouldn't get to keep it, especially not now. I'm just glad the west actually, mostly, cares now and is helping Ukraine out.

 

Yes, because Russia controlling Black Sea is so much in Ukraine's long term interests. While at it, let's betray the Tatars and allow Russia to squash any signs of Ukrainian life on the peninsula that still remains.
Russia was historically super fond of Constantinople, both for symbolic value as the centre of Byzantine Empire and the Orthodox Church and as a key to control Bosphorus. Let's trade some NATO member Turkey's territory for peace,

 

The disgusting part is, that echoes the main russian excuse for the whole invasion. "Donbass, Slobozhanshhyna, Khesron all speak Russian, therefore it's ours". Funny how that happened, with millions of Ukrainian peasants dying in artificial famine and all. Guess what: lots of soldiers from Eastern Ukraine still speak Russian yet have zero problems killing their "liberators".

P. S. I still remember when it was hard to get service in Ukrainian in Kyiv's shops and restaurants, and parents trying to out out their kids from studying in "low-prestige" Ukrainian. My own parents luckily failed to do that with me back in 1986. Those times are not coming back, khuylo made sure of that.

 

No, nor did I imply such a thing.

I was against the Russian annexation of Crimea. I thought it was illegal. I still do.

 

Are you pointing this at me? Because I don't recall saying anything personal about you...ever. And any comment I make about the Ukrainian situation has nothing to do with you. I don't even know you. But if you're saying something I posted was "disgusting," I take personal offense to that and will have none of it.

 

Don't get me wrong. I was just trying to explain why Russia might want to keep Crimea really bad. My statement was if Ukraine agreed to it then I'd be okay with Russia keeping Crimea. I back Ukraine 100%.

Putin is a disgusting person and a very bad actor for the world. Ideally, he will die tonight from a massive heartache and chances are the world would be in a much better place. However, if someone like Prigozhin took over it could get even worse. A big problem here is that the Russian people are not used to a democracy. I suspect most Russians just ignore politics and what the government is doing for the most part because they probably feel powerless. People that are politically active end up in prison or worse in Russia.

 

"In a slippery slope argument, a course of action is rejected because, with little or no evidence, one insists that it will lead to a chain reaction resulting in an undesirable end or ends. The slippery slope involves an acceptance of a succession of events without direct evidence that this course of events will happen." -- https://www.txst.edu/philosophy/resources/fallacy-definitions/Slippery-Slope.html