Depression coming? Might put off doctorate for a year or two.

I agree, it might be a good idea, but I have an anti-debt bias. I like having everything paid off; if I have to go into debt, I usually don't buy it. However, you are right, borrowing $20K now might mean only paying back the equivalent of $10K or less, if we get the mega inflation that the book predicts.

 

I am of the same mindset with you regarding debt, but debt incurred to increase one's employability and marketability should a depression come may be a wise investment provided it is not excessive. If someone can find a Doctoral program that is not in the mid to high five-figures from a solid school and it is in an in-demand field it makes a lot of sense to do it now. When things start collapsing those programs will either dry up due to people not being able to afford them or more likely they will increase in price exponentially.

The price of any program is not going to be any cheaper than it is today. If the collapse we are talking about is coming, a few or even several thousand dollars in the bank are not going to go very far at all. The inflation we would see would vastly depreciate the value of that savings. When that is gone - then what? Money ahead of the collapse should be invested and spent on tangible things that will be of value after things start to improve (which is, of course, not paper money). At least with enhanced credentials a person will have a better chance of emerging with the ability to earn more money. We talk here often of the Masters becoming the new Bachelors, but imagine how slim the pickings are going to be and the resulting buyer's market that will be created from 30% unemployment.

 

I'd think that at 30% unemployment, a revolution might not seem so far-fetched.

 

I am of the same mindset. Finished all my school with zero debt but some debt might not be a bad thing if there is an ROI. I would not go $100K in debt but $10k-15k is not unreasonable.

 

Wiedemer suggests specific tangibles in which to invest where you should actually make some money if the market collapses. If he is right, those with investments in precious metals and a few other things that will prosper from a collapse, will actually be OK. Not great, but OK.

 

I totally agree. But being a K-12 teacher, I'm not sure a doctorate would offer any guaranteed employability or any reliable ROI for me. I was doing this for fun as much as any other reason. Weidemer suggests that many teachers may be able to find or keep employment anyway

 

If it takes a wheel barrel full of money to buy a loaf of bread I'm doing two things... selling a loaf of bread and paying off my student loans and 2.) leaving the good old US of A for sandy beaches and sunshine somewhere in South America. Not to say countries like Brazil wouldn't be hit, but they certainly wouldn't have as far to fall.

The way I figure it, my great greats moved here because of opportunity. If that opportunity dries up, look elsewhere.

 

I would not chaneg my life goals on one book. Why not just find the books that says all will be rosey and go for it?

 

I think you need to reframe the question:

1. Is it better to invest in myself, via a personal development option, or to invest in others performance in a higher risk periods? Which do I have the most control over? Plenty of people had money in real estate, banks, and shares. How do they feel now?

2. Any investment in higher education is puting money on yourself to perform to a higher level of mental acuity and resilience. Is this a premise that you accept?

3. Once you attain that level, there has been knowledge/mental growth that has increased human potential to perform more generally. Is this also a premise that you accept?

3. The question then is whether this increased potential is more vital in positive or negative circumstances? I would suggest that you will get return for your money by increased performance in periods under intense pressure which is more vital than in positive times, even if not more financially rewarding. Is it, for example, better to be employed at a low wage when everybody is unemployed, than it is to be employed at a high wage when everybody is employed? Is this a premise you accept?

If the answer is yes to all of these, then perhaps the doctorate should proceed. If the premises are not accepted in the first few, then you should have never started it perhaps in the first place. I think the answer to the fourth question raises the issue of relativity. High performers in low performing economies have a better standard of living than people performing at a lower level. The best bet is that this relative position will continue into the good times.

I guess you have a lot to consider. I hope that I have helped.

 

K-12 education is its own animal, though. You aren't going to get rich by being a K-12 educator, no matter how well you do or how many degrees you have.

Also, it is important to note that SurfDoctor can opt for the EdS at the midway point to the EdD without losing credits.

 

Yea, and I'm getting rather tired, so a break for a few months might be nice. I teach full-time, run a small business and I'm working on the EdD. SurfDoctor is a busy boy.

 

OH STOP IT!!! We all know he will not stop

 

I think that SurfDoctor is right to reassess decisions. I think that the world is on the verge of a seismic shift in social and economic paradigms. Papua New Guinea just had a military coup. You can walk to Papua New Guinea at low tide so the neighbourhood is getting a little rough. Oceania has a large number of small countries that are not overly stable.The GFC has significant issues for aid and exports from these making a huge difference between the "haves" and the "have nots" in the tribal sense. You can expect 'bushfires" all over the shop.

This, I think, is being replicated within industries and more developed countries as well. The AUD is currently $1.06 US and climbing. This is reshaping our economy as manufacturing cannot cope and is moving offshore. Rural industries are back because of a global food shortage looming. Mining is going gangbusters and selling heavily to China. Cities are starting to go backwards, while rural areas are going to bloom. A demographic shift is needed and government is caught flatfooted as usual. What worked two years ago, now doesn't. The only certainty is debt collecting and risk.

Both the external and the internal environment are rapidly changing here. There will be a lot of relearning to do. I don't think the traditional route to anywhere is going to necessarily cut it anymore. I suspect that this is everywhere. SurfDoctor appears to have a lot of cards on the table. The trick is to pick which ones to play, if you cannot play them all. You may have to alter how you assess them.

 

Words of wisdom there.

 

Hello, my name is SurfDoctor and I'm an eduholic. It's been one week since I have taken my last online course.:friday:

 

It depends where you want to teach. In times of recession, a lot of people go back to school full time due to unemployment and therefore more work for teachers. This is the case for state schools that offer full time programs.

It might affect you if you want to teach at for profits as many people don't see the need to upgrade when there are no jobs available and hardly take "upgrade" classes. For profits take a big hit with the economy.

 

If a real depression does in fact hit and the profit schools dry up, that will leave a glut of teachers looking for work in a shrinking market. New doctors will not have much of a chance competing for limited teaching opportunities when they are up against all of those newly unemployed, experienced professors from the for profit schools.

Fortunately for me, K-12 teachers will still be needed unless things get so bad that the state government collapses. Even Wiedemer doesn't think it will get that bad.

 

I teach now at one for profit, I won't say the name of the school as I don't want to hurt its image but I have been teaching classes with one student in the last year. If they are running classes with only one student, things are really bad.

As a PhD from a for profit school seems to lead to jobs at similar schools, I wouldn't put too much money on them now. Things might change in the future but there is a glut of educated people now so I would expect people taking less degrees in the near future as employers won't be paying much more for this now.

 

I think there is wisdom in your statement. We have all discussed it to death, but I would expect that the boom (bubble?) in education will not last forever. As many have already said, the fools buy at the top of the market expecting that things will get better and better forever. The wise buy when everyone else is selling at the bottom of the market. I don't want to be a part of the first group.

 

This is why this place is great. I'e learned about so many good deals in education that are far below "bubble" status. For example, the MAIS degree at WNMU is somewhere around $6K for an entire graduate degree. That's a smoking deal. Bursting bubble or not, I'm not sure you'll ever be able to beat that.