“…Columnist Dan Henninger on how the anti-establishment candidates fared in the second GOP debate.” [video]http://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-journal-could-carly-win-the-gop-nomination/99656A35-1619-47A3-A07F-23012F98DD54.html[/video] "Business World Columnist Holman Jenkins Jr. rates the Republican presidential candidate's tenure as Hewlett Packard CEO." [video]http://www.wsj.com/video/opinion-journal-carlys-h-p-scorecard/46BE9378-8CEE-4329-BB5B-2F72BCB3224C.html[/video] Note 1: The video advertisements can be skipped at 15 seconds… Note 2: Videos are not intended as Carly Fiorina endorsements; merely as a discussion topic.
Sure she can win. Any of them can. But none of them will be able to muster the support of a majority of American voters. If that person existed in the GOP, we would have seen him/her by now. But the gulf between what is acceptable inside the GOP and what will win the general election has become too large. This is why Romney never had a chance. McCain never had a chance. Bush slipped in with a minority of the vote. Bush (the dad) rode Reagan's coattails and then was ousted. You have to go back to Reagan to find someone who had cross-over appeal...and he wouldn't stand a chance in today's GOP. The GOP isn't going anywhere, and they have huge structural advantages at the state and local level. (Not just gerrymandering, but also the fact that more rural areas are over-represented and also tend to vote GOP.) But they're not going to win a Presidential election again for a very long time.
George W. Bush won the 2004 election with a majority of the popular vote (50.73%). I personally still can't fathom why, but it happened. I agree that demographic trends are against the Republicans in the long run, but the Democrats are offering up vulnerable candidates this time around, whether Clinton or Sanders, and the eventual GOP nominee could pull off a victory. Weak opponents matter, just as Obama benefited from running against McCain and Romney, both of whom demonstrated the sort of charisma one usually sees on display at Madame Tussauds. Not that I'm expressing a preference. I just think that, at least for 2016, you're exaggerating the difficulties for the GOP at the presidential level.
This early in the process; I agree Steve that the DNC has more than its share of at risk offered candidates. The push for Joe Biden (with even Gore and Kerry being rumored) to enter the political fracas underscores this to me. Could be wrong, but I truly don’t have the gut feeling that Hillary is the spot-on choice to head the 2016 Democrat ticket. She is no longer the inevitable anointed nominee in my observation. My goodness—Bernie Sanders who in the long run is debatable to gain the Party nomination … but is in fact leading Hillary in successive polls of Democratic voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire AND without the help of a Super PAC. Such IMO points toward a dissenting Democrat voter trend that links to the Hillary scandals and most principally—her negative favorability ratings.
Regarding Bush, I was referring to 2000. His margin for 2004, btw, was the slimmest win of any incumbent ever. Odd for a 'war' President. As for Clinton, there simply are no 'scandals' about her. None. Zip. Nada. Never have been. Just the right wing getting its panties in a bunch time and time again because it wants to. Of course, we don't know the full extent of the e-mail saga, but you'd think there'd be something there by now.
None at all? Besides the Hillary camp trying to stonewall the investigation into the email matter at every turn, how about those dead Americans, including the American Ambassador, who died needlessly in Benghazi under her watch? Oh, I forgot...."what difference at this point does it make", right?
The emails and personal server are the scandals I’m referring to Rich. As far as there being something there by now … maybe there is but the findings just haven’t been publically disclosed yet; or the investigations are not yet completed. That’s the way governmental agency investigations so often go. Consider that the server matter is still being investigated by a total of five intelligence agencies, e.g., the FBI, National Security Agency, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, and National Geospatial Agency. I wouldn't consider such agency attentions to be a desired setting for the Clinton campaign... Side note: It’s also my view that overall negative favorability ratings will eventually derail Trump too…
Currently I hope that no one party will control the presidency and congress. Based on the political rhetoric over the last few decades I afraid that some radical changes will be implemented (liberal or conservative).
Poll: More New York Voters View Hillary Clinton Unfavorably (09/21/15) “For the first time in Hillary Clinton’s political career, more voters in her adopted home state of New York view her unfavorably than favorably, according to a Siena College poll published Monday. In the overwhelmingly Democratic state, 51% of the registered voters polled said they held an unfavorable view of the Democratic presidential front-runner, while 46% said they held a positive view of her. In a Siena poll released in July, Mrs. Clinton’s favorable rating was 56% and her unfavorable rating was 40%. One of the most serious potential hurdles to Mrs. Clinton securing the Democratic nomination, though, is the increasingly likely candidacy of Vice President Joe Biden, and the poll found that a majority – 53% — of New York Democratic primary voters want Mr. Biden to run. Mr. Biden gets a higher favorable rating in the state than Mrs. Clinton, with 54% of all poll respondents saying they view him favorably.” Is Hillary circling the drain? Poll: More New York Voters View Hillary Clinton Unfavorably - Washington Wire - WSJ
Still premature in the overall process, and not an endorsement of for/against this candidate: Carly Fiorina Jumps to No. 2 in CNN Poll, Keeps Focus on Abortion Issue (WSJ-Washington Wire, 09/20/2015) “Ms. Fiorina’s positions have become more central to the campaign, with a CNN poll released Sunday showing her jumping into second place in the Republican contest behind businessman Donald Trump. The CNN/ORC poll shows Mr. Trump still leading among registered Republican voters or independents that lean Republican, with 24% backing, down from 32% from a similar poll earlier in the month. Ms. Fiorina came in second in the latest poll with 15%, just ahead of retired surgeon Ben Carson with 14%.” Carly Fiorina Jumps to No. 2 in CNN Poll, Keeps Focus on Abortion Issue - Washington Wire - WSJ
