Venezuela

I'm sorry but all the evidence indicates that Trump cares only for himself his family and perhaps a handful of other elite billionaires. He has no coherent foreign policy and a demonstrated tendency to throw the military at every problem (let's send the army to the Mexican border).

 

Dramatic events in Venezuela today.

Apparently some of the Venezuelan military has gone over to Juan Guaido and Guaido has called for a popular uprising against Maduro from a Caracas air force base while surrounded by military loyal to him there.

Crowds are in the street, lots of tear gas is being fired. Most of the internal security troops still seem to be supporting Maduro. There is video being played on TV of an internal security armored car ramming into a crowd and running over an unknown number of people.

Still no military-style gunbattles between opposing forces. What sound of gunfire there is seems to be tear-gas launchers. Occasional pops. So the regular military seems to be keeping cool (so far).

The left-wing pro-regime "collectivo" gangs ('antifa' on motorcycles) seem to be very active attacking pro-Guaido demonstrators, under Cuban leadership the US government thinks. Maduro's Presidential Guard seems to largely Cuban as well, with a Cuban command structure. No visible activity from the Russians or Chinese.

Speculation that the US is deep in conversation with local Latin American countries which oppose Maduro, and with the Organization of American States. As I argued earlier, I don't think that the US wants to intervene on its own.

No visible sign of unusual US military activity. But John Bolton says that "everything is on the table".

 

Guaido's address this morning:



Pro-Guaido soldiers are wearing blue arm-bands.

 

The next few hours will make the difference

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/world/americas/venezuela-guaido-maduro.html

 

Well, I didn't see that coming

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-26/justice-department-indict-venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-on-federal-drug-trafficking-charges

 

Well, he was. It seems that the sin isn't doing international drug trafficking; it's not giving the various intelligence agencies their "cut".

 

I do NOT want to see us march into Venezuela but doing so will certainty honor a long-standing custom of the United States government.

 

some more Venezuela news (#2 is clearly the work of Cicada 3301)

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/venezuela-drug-charges-maduro-show-desperation-200326211416928.html

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/venezuelas-telecoms-satellite-lost-space-69835645

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-03-26/experts-venezuela-is-worst-case-scenario-for-coronavirus-spread