Trump-Ukraine

I'm really curious if Lerner has enough information now to assess what's going on. Or alternatively, will it take a guided bomb strike at Chernivtsi town center (strikes on Odessa and Kryvyy Rih being insufficient).

 

Trump has abandoned Ukraine is embracing Putin. Trump pulled out all the American experts that were helping Ukraine keep the power grid up. Trump disbanded the government panel that was watching and maintaining the economic sanctions against Russia. Trump claimed that Ukraine wouldn't last two weeks without his help. He's trying to force Ukraine to surrender.

 

I want to see Ukraine as a sovereign country with lasting security.

Regarding rare earth minerals, did Zelensky sign a deal with the UK four days before Trump’s inauguration? UK and EU gave many loans not that many grants to Ukraine.
Still great support.

I may not have all the information you do, but I regularly follow news in Ukrainian and Russian on Ukrainian TV, including channels like Freedom. Additionally, I stay in touch with friends in Odesa and Kyiv via WhatsApp, though I no longer have contacts in Chernivtsi.

My concern is that Ukraine could face a fate similar to that of Yugoslavia. To be clear, I am not endorsing or recommending any outcome—just analyzing the situation.

From what my friends in Odesa and Kyiv tell me, Zelensky insisted on visiting the White House about five days in advance, with backing from the UK and the EU. I’m told this visit wasn’t strictly necessary and that he intended to “confront” Trump. Was there anything to offer US if it was commited to UK the 100 year agreement?
After the fallout in US, Zelensly canceled the UK agreement? Boris J flew to Ukraine to work with Zelensky. Rada enetually voted to extend Zelensky term as President after initial refusal, so not clear what legality was in UK signed agreement.

UK's 100-year deal with Ukraine 'under threat from Trump'
Questions are being asked about whether a deal on minerals between Washington and Kyiv is compatible with the UK's own agreement with Ukraine, which commits both countries to exploring opportunities for natural resources

Questions are being asked about whether a deal on minerals between Washington and Kyiv is compatible with the UK's own agreement with Ukraine, which commits both countries to exploring opportunities for natural resources

Opinions within Ukraine vary. Many Ukrainians want the war to end and for their husbands and sons to come home. Meanwhile, Ukrainians in New York advocate for continued financial support to sustain resistance and liberation efforts.

The economic situation in Europe is also a factor. With Germany’s economy shrinking, the impact of COVID-19, and sanctions on Russia, economic conditions are challenging. The EU appears to be pressuring the U.S. to engage more deeply in the conflict, but not all member states are aligned. For instance, Italy has rejected France’s proposal to send troops to Ukraine. According to Rai1 TV, Prime Minister Meloni has stressed that Italian soldiers will not be deployed to Ukraine amid the ongoing war. Meloni said she is unsure about the EU’s defense strategy in Ukraine.
on sending European troops.

 

The particular bad faith debating technique Lerner demonstrates here is called "Gish gallop". Don't be like him, boys and girls.

The situation is clear: Trump admin stopped military aid to Ukraine. Including one approved under Biden. Including Patriot missiles already shipped and warehoused in Poland. The same Patriots Ukraine uses to protect cities like Odesa and Kryvyy Rih Trump’s buddy putin promptly bombed. Then US stopped sharing intelligence and crippled HIMARS targeting. What in the name of all that's good and holy within your text vomit up there can possibly justify that? At long last, have you no decency, sir?

 

I said it in the past, you were provoking me again.
I support Ukraine and was surprised with current admin stopping the much-needed military supplies.
Yet, you are distorting the real situation by showing blown-up buildings, as if it's US fault.
Attacking Trump will not , I repeat will not help Ukraine.
So why is UK so nervous about the rare earth deal, and why UK and EU not providing grants?
EU maybe wants US Russia China war? Some speculate, just listen and check their behaviouir.

 

Stanislav, I think this technique called whataboutism.

 

Gish gallop again. I'll take a stab at 1 point, which is more than your bullshit arguments deserve: seeing how Stormer directly urged Zelensky to try to make up with Trump (including reviving the deal) and how Zelensky now did just that (by Trump’s own public admission), your claim that "UK is nervous about the rare earth deal" is false and originates from informational sewers you prefer drinking from nowadays.

Yes, withholding air defense missiles leads to buildings being blown up. You being so chill about it is... what's the word? - deplorable.

 

Done in this manner it's Gish Gallop.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/gish-gallop

 

You are to blind, to see the theatrics.

Your total BS reply.
Here is a fact:
The U.S. move doesen't and won’t have an immediate impact on the battlefield, where Kyiv’s forces are struggling to stem a relentless Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.
As to Stromer, did you really watched and listened to whole address?
And it's OK for Ukraine to make minerals deal with UK but not US?
I bless tue defence 100 year deal with UK.
It's good for Ukraine.

 

Looney toons!

 

Here is some actual info, to contrast your distorted accusations:

The US is not alone in providing Patriots; other NATO countries like Germany and the Netherlands have provided Ukraine with batteries and missile interceptors.
But Trump's decision to pause aid raises questions about the future of what is now Kyiv's top air defense asset
for which the US has been a key supplier. Halting further supply could prove detrimental.

Ukraine now reportedly operates six Patriot systems at undisclosed locations around the country. These batteries have helped Kyiv shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, including some that the Kremlin claimed were unstoppable.

The U.S. move doesn't and won’t have an immediate impact on the battlefield,

Podolyak, speaking through a translator, said that Ukraine still needs to identify which areas of US security assistance would be affected by Trump's aid decision and which weapons or ammunition could be replaced by other partner nations.

Zelenskyy said Tuesday that the way the meeting unfolded was "regrettable" and that it was "time to make things right."
"Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format," he wrote on social media. "We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively."

My understanding is that once signed, Trump Admin will resume the aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine will share what they offered UK in minerals with US. But not sure how it's possible if 3/4 of it is under occupation by Russia?

 

For those keeping score at home: this is called "moving the goalposts", which is a trick a tad more advanced than typical whataboutism but falls short of the Gish Gallop. Are you getting tired in your propagandizing for Trump/Putin?

So, you're a big picture now, huh, Ler? I bet you will be comfortable going to the family of that guy Mordor has murdered in Kryvyy Rih and tell them "well, at least the pause in support won't affect the overall position at the LOC - yet".
Yes, Ukrainians can hold off the murderous horde for 6 month or more, even without US help. However, "pause" in shipments means that Ukraine has a supply of Patriot missiles that'll run out in days at best. In addition, Agent Krasnoff cut off intelligence info exchange - including some warnings about missile launches aimed at both Ukrainian troops and cities. Don't tell me you need spelled out how this changes the tactical decision making, on both sides. This is exactly what leads to surges of terrorist strikes on Ukrainian cities, like the one we are freaking seeing right now. And yet, you obsess over the mineral deal. And at the same time you have an unmitigated gall to come here and demand sympathy for Barnard College students who are inconvenienced by having to evacuate the bomb threat. Fun fact: when I was at Kyiv Poly back in late 90ies, we evacuated the buildings, at times, every week. Back then some dumber students thought that calling a bomb threat was a funny prank. We all survived just fine (except maybe for someone who finally got arrested for that crap when the authorities learned to deal with it). What is NOT fine or funny is my 4-year-old nephew having to evacuate with his kindergarten class due to credible air raid alarms.

You are hard to parse when you're not in your copy-and-paste mode, so I don't know what this stupid distraction may be about. From the reports in Ukrainskaya Pravda, the Ukrainian side managed to talk the "rare earth deal" down from a shameless shakedown to something more neutral, and potentially mutually beneficial in the long run. I am OK with Ze trying to appease the Truylo and sign this thing; doubt that'd be sufficient for restoring aid or all that helpful for a "peace deal". More hope on Europe.

 

Ukraine would be stupid to sign a deal with Putin without some kind of guarantee that he won't just attack them again in another year or two. This is despite Trump's stupid position that Zelensky has no choice because he doesn't have any cards. Which was probably very confusing to Zelensky since they weren't playing cards and he was probably not familiar with that colloquialism. Trump needs to let the experts do their job. Instead he blunders around like a bull in a China shop.

 

I think as an immediate neighbor, this should be expected.
But I expect US to provide aid.

They already did it with giving up their nukes.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, thousands of nuclear arms were abandoned in Ukraine, leaving Kyiv at the time with the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
the Budapest Memorandum, signed on December 5, 1994, resulted in a multilateral agreement affirming Ukraine's security and sovereignty in exchange for giving up the nuclear stocks.
The United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia were among the signatories, as was Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine itself.

Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine became the parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, leaving their nuclear arsenals to Russia.

In exchange, they were promised that Russia would:

• Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
• Refrain from the threat or the use of force against the signatory.
• Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by the signatory of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
• Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
• Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against the signatory.
• Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

However, tellingly absent from the document is reference to any recourse action or enforcement mechanism which would be triggered if one of the parties broke the deal.

In fact, as the agreement was taking shape, U.S. State Department lawyers highlighted a distinction between "security guarantee" and "security assurance," with the former entailing a military response by the co-signatory countries if one of the sides were to violate the agreement.

 

This is a pretty useless point right now, is it not? Except to highlight the role US had in conning Ukraine (and Belarus and Kazakhstan) into Budapest. Belarus and Kazakhstan ended up becoming Russia-influenced authoritarian sh1tholes. NOT a coincidence. Ukraine was well on the way to the same fate under Kuchma and especially Yanukovich. Now with US influence on the wane the danger of this skyrockets.

BTW, does everyone realize that the goal of russia is not subduing Ukraine to ward off NATO? It's warding off NATO in order to subdue Ukraine. Means and ends. Also, everything Trumplo is doing is absolutely consistent with being a russia asset. Appointing a drunk SecDef. Picking a fight with Denmark ffs. Picking a fight with Canada. Pissing off NATO allies. Making federal government useless with DOGE. Giving up US influence by killing USAID. Crippling scientific research. Crippling public health measures. Encouraging extremism. How the f. is he not an asset?
Lerner knows this BTW: in Soviet times, the KGB was practically omnipresent. Especially in anything around foreigners. So it is very hard to imagine, knowing Trumplo's personality and well-documented business failures, that he WASN'T recruited on his very first trip to Moscow back in 1987. A high-profile businessman with glaring character traits, on the brink of bankruptcy, married to an Eastern Bloc model? OF COURSE he was approached.

 

ti

I guess CIA or FBI would know such info? Especially those who been wronged? These allegations played out in 2016 and for some time after, and during Biden, Harris campaign woul been used if it had any prove.

I speculate there are business motives but not only, and the current president believes it beneficial to the US as well, same for VP (who publicly stated what he thinks of supporting Ukraine).

I'm biased pro Ukraine and make conspiracy theories from everything, so I asked my non-Ukrainian, American friends, some of them have children in active duty.
There were mixed responses. One blatantly stated that we have no business there. One almost duplicated what you are saying.
The main leading response among them was - He is stepping back, avoiding committing US troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia, he leaves it to Europe as it was hundreds of years in Europe.
That this is best interests of current admin. They were surprised that Pr. Zelensky challenged and argued with Trump in public, a big no no, not with Trump.
Also, it appears UK is hinting to step side after Macron declaration of possible extending nuclear umbrella.
Turkey, a NATO member, offered to send its troops as a peace keeping force after the agreement to end the war.
Will Russia wait for EU to get stronger so it threatens Moscow, or use as an excuse if one needed to attack further in other EU states?

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-considers-pulling-troops-180000828.html

"Trump is considering pulling US troops from Germany and redeploying them to Eastern Europe, The Telegraph can reveal.

Pr Trump is weighing up withdrawing some 35,000 active personnel out of Germany in a move that would further sour US-Europe relations.
The US president, who has repeatedly warned that Europe must commit more to its defensive capabilities, is becoming increasingly frustrated that the continent is “pushing for war”, sources close to the administration said.
Around 160,000 active-duty personnel are stationed outside of the United States, a vast quantity of whom are in Germany.

“Trump is angry that they [Europe] appear to be pushing for war,” a source close to the White House said.

Brian Hughes, a US national security spokesman, said: “While no specific announcement is imminent, the US military is always considering the redeployment of troops around the world to best address current threats to our interests.”"

 

This is not really true. Watch it again. Zelensky did not challenge of argue with Trump. JD and Trump attacked Zelensky. The only time he spoke was when they asked a question and they never let him finish an answers. It was an obvious ambush for the benefit of the MAGA crowd and the Russians.

 

You are providing interpretation.
Yet, what people saw on their TV sets is an argument in the Oval Office broadcast globally.
The Ukrainian president pushed back at suggestions from his more powerful partners. That's what people saw, and friends commented on it. They thought it was a mistake, even if he made good points.
Escalated to President Trump and President Zelenskyy argued about how to end Ukraine’s war with Russia broadcasted globally.

"What kind of diplomacy, JD, are you talking about? What do you mean?" he said.

The exchange then became visibly tense, with Vance replying: "the kind that will end the destruction of your country."

After Vance challenged the Ukrainian president over problems he's had with the military and conscription, Zelensky replied: "During the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have a nice ocean and don't feel [it] now, but you will feel it in the future."

That comment rankled Trump and drew him into the clash that up until this point had been limited to Zelensky and the vice-president."

 

Besides how stunningly bad this take is, and how chickenshit you are hiding behind unnamed "friends" to take it, what in this justified stop in sharing the intel? The very same one multiple sources say led to additional victims in Ukraine? Truylo had said he's "imagining" russians are "pounding them as hard as they can", making this outcome deliberate. Seriously, what will it take for you to condemn this administration, and throw support to the opposition party? Another mass casualty attack? Whoops:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2025/03/8/7501886/


Western and Ukrainian officials indicated that the US suspension of intelligence sharing is generating battlefield effects. Time reported on March 8 that five senior Western and Ukrainian officials and military officers stated that the suspension of US intelligence to Ukraine has helped Russian forces advance on the battlefield.[4] An unspecified officer told Time that the suspension has left Ukrainian forces unable to use "some of their best weapons systems." A source in the Ukrainian government stated that the suspension has impacted Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast the most and that Ukrainian forces have lost the ability to detect Russian aircraft approaching Ukraine — compromising Ukrainian authorities' ability to warn civilians and military personnel about incoming Russian strikes. CNN reported on March 8 that a Ukrainian official stated that Ukrainian forces may run out of artillery shells by May or June 2025 — likely referring only to stockpiles of US-supplied ammunition.[5] A Ukrainian official also told CNN that Ukraine may exhaust its stockpile of Patriot air defense missiles, upon which Ukraine relies to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, "in a matter of weeks." ISW cannot independently verify statements about the effects on the ground of the US intelligence sharing suspension. ISW continues to assess, however, that the complete suspension of US intelligence sharing would damage Ukraine's ability to use long-range strikes to generate battlefield effects and defend against Russian offensive operations and would allow Russian forces to intensify their drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian rear areas, affecting millions of Ukrainian civilians and the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).[6]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8-2025