Trump and the Ukraine War

No one knows how Trump intends to fulfil his bombastic promise to end the Ukraine War. A news channel I watch, TLDR, has pieced together a possible plan from Trump's and his supporters' comments. Everyone will hate it but I'm not sure how anyone could do better, if it's accurate. It entails Russia keeping part of the eastern territory and Crimea, which it already holds, Ukraine not joining NATO for, say, twenty years, and an immediate ceasefire.

Putin gets most of what he holds, Ukraine gets peace with eventual NATO protection and recognized borders with a buffer zone patrolled by...somebody, and both sides get an off ramp.

This is not an "honorable peace" for either side but no honorable peace for either side would be acceptable to the other side.

Meanwhile, the Great Orange Dealmaker also says he can end the Gaza War in 24 hours because he is such good friends with Netanyahu. No, he can't. Not without getting some significant concessions from Bibi's coalition partners and they won't budge. They want it all.

 

So, no real safety, and a virtual guarantee that Ukraine wouldn't exist in 20 years or, at the very least, gets Finlandized into being practically a russian region, but with an even lower standard of living and even less rule of law. Yay peace!

If this appeasement idea gets approving commentary even from you, a thoughtful Dem voter, we are truly and fully f@#$ed.

P. S. Something like this could work if Ukraine would be allowed to, and was capable of, re-gaining its own nuclear deterrent (as it by right should seeing how the Budapest Memorandum is dead and buried). Most sober people think that's not a realistic opportunity...

 

My fear is that Trump wouldn't mind in the least if Russia just destroyed all of Ukraine and enslaved everyone living there. What nosborne described would be far superior to that. Putin has Trump in his pocket for some unknown reason.

What I'd really like to see is pouring huge amounts of Patriot missiles and offensive missiles into Ukraine and let Ukraine make the world a safer place by decimating Russia and ideally dethroning Putin.

 

No, I'm not approving it. Rewarding Putin for war crimes isn't a good idea. It's just that I can't see any other way to end a war that Ukraine can't fight forever.

 

1. Strengthen Ukraine's hand by providing more of the obsolete equipment from US warehouses.
2. Negotiate ceasefire in exchange for REAL security guarantees (either immediate NATO membership for Ukraine or treaties equivalent to Article 5).

What you suggest is NOT ending a war. It's losing a war. There is NOTHING there to stop putin from violating any "ceasefire", which he WILL do at a time of his choosing.

 

Really? Because I don't see any difference if you think ahead for 30 seconds. Putin will NOT abide by any kind of agreement if he doesn't want to. What this scenario amounts to is russia getting time to transport tons of rusty exploding sh1t and just rolling over Ukraine when the world isn't looking closely. How is this not blindingly obvious?

 

This also needs to be taken into consideration:

Link: https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-poll/

"As attitudes around potential future peace negotiations continue to shift in Ukraine, 52% of Ukrainians now say that they would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war "as soon as possible," according to a survey published by Gallup on Nov. 19.

The survey, released ahead of the anticipated harsh winter months amid Russian energy attacks, highlights that approximately 10% to 12% of Ukraine's population living in Russian-occupied territories were excluded from the poll.

The poll, released on the 1,000th day of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, indicates a progressive shift in sentiments surrounding the end of the war, with only about four in ten, 38%, respondents saying that the country should "continue fighting until it wins the war."

 

You're correct, it is blindingly obvious to me. My concern is Trump. Trump is under Putin's spell. I'm afraid that he might even be tempted to go out of his way to help Russia destroy Ukraine.

 

I'd be more concerned about Putin than Trump when it comes to any future deals.

 

Yes, my point was that Ukraine would be in a very difficult position if Trump cut off any further aid to Ukraine. Trump will almost for sure do that.

 

MOSCOW (Reuters) -President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the Ukraine war was escalating towards a global conflict after the United States and Britain allowed Ukraine to hit Russia with their weapons, and warned the West that Moscow could strike back.
Russia, Putin said, had responded to the use of U.S. and British missiles by firing a new kind of hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile at a Ukrainian military facility. More could follow, Putin warned. He said civilians would be warned ahead of further strikes with such weapons.

 

I find it amusing that Putin thinks that it is perfectly okay to use Iranian and North Korean missiles and drones to attack inside Ukraine. But Putin thinks that it is horrible in a war that he started for Ukraine to shoot American or English missiles into Russia.

Actually Putin is a smart guy. He's just trying to scare us (meaning Trump) into giving him what he wants.

 

I remeber people saying that Putin was just teying to scare Ukrane.
He acted on his words and invaded.

Now GOP saying Dems are trying to escalate the war for Trump to deal with.

 

I think Biden is trying to give Ukraine the upper hand or pressure Russia into pulling out before Trump takes over and abandons Ukraine. Trump's "peace" plan involves Ukraine giving up a big chunk of its land.

 

Its a posibility, time will show.

 

He could have done it sooner. Korea gave the excuse, I guess.

 

Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center commentary: Why Russia May Live To Regret Trump's Re-Election

Link: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/11/russia-trump-new-perspectives?lang=en&center=russia-eurasia

"It is obvious that Trump’s solution will be far from Kyiv’s wishes. Any concrete proposal to stop the conflict just now will be at Ukraine’s expense in one way or another: in other words, unfair and defective in terms of international law. That’s little consolation for Putin, however, who doesn’t seem to want any peaceful solution currently, fair or otherwise. He appears to have recovered from the setbacks of 2022 and 2023, regained military and economic confidence, and is now proceeding on the basis that time is on his side in this war of attrition. Russian officials constantly repeat that all the goals of the “special military operation” will be achieved."

 

I'm not favoring the alleged Trump Plan. But really, Stanislav, do you think Ukraine can force Russia and Putin out? Do you REALLY think Ukraine could occupy the Kremlin with anything short of nuclear war? Because that's what Ukrainian victory would require. I just don't see it. What I do see is an ongoing war of attrition.

 

The nuclear threat: Putin's last bargaining chip
"If a few years ago you had brought up during a discussion the possibility of a third world war breaking out, they probably wouldn't have taken you seriously at best, or labeled you delusional and hysterical.
Today, the West behaves just like the frog whose water temperature is raised a little at a time - until the water reaches boiling point

This week, two fundamental things changed in the war between Russia and Ukraine, which crossed the 1,000-day mark. One: changing the approach of the United States and removing the restrictions from Ukraine to attack with long-range American weapons, a confirmation to which Britain also joined (albeit unofficially).
And the second happened in the Kremlin (and is much more dramatic) the announcement of the change in Russia's nuclear doctrine, the same protocol that details the threats and scenarios against which the president may decide to use nuclear weapons.
Clauses have now been added to the doctrine that lower the reaction threshold and allow the use of nuclear weapons even in the event that Russia is attacked with long-range conventional weapons and if the attacking country has the support of a nuclear power."

 

Well...hm. Nuclear use doctrine isn't really a basket of options for a State to choose among. The nature of the weapons themselves dictates that they cannot be used. Ever. That's why the U.S. finally gave up on so-called "tactical nukes". A nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon and crossing that line in the face of anything short of an immediate, existential threat is suicide. So Russia can say whatever she likes but nothing really changes.