Trump and the Ukraine War

I have to assume this is the hope of about everyone here. My biggest concern right now is that Trump will pressure Ukraine into an even worse situation than they are in now. For example, Ukraine being forced to agree to a ceasefire with no guarantees just a worthless promise from Putin he won't attack again.

 

But I get the impression that Ukraine won't agree to cede any territory to Russia in return for a peace treaty. If that's true, I don't blame you, but what possible pressure can Ukraine bring to bear that will achieve that goal?

Really, I'm not arguing here. I want to understand what you're thinking.

 

How do you cause the Russians to leave?

 

The way they were compelled to leave Kherson. By making it costly to stay.

I want to press you for one answer though: what did you mean when you said Ukrainian victory would be an "existential risk"?

 

I am thinking about one thing: right now, pretty much 100% of American experts on the region focused on Russia. They studied it in college, grad school, more likely than not spent time in moscow, interacted with their counterparts and russian "elites" etc. This means they probably unwittingly absorbed russian perspectives and narratives and are at least open to ideas of a "triune russian nation", "natural sphere of influence" or the notion that admitting Ukraine into NATO and the EU constitutes a legitimate threat to russian security that can trigger a nuclear war. Sort of a Walter Duranty malaise (I wonder how many people know why Ukrainian diaspora community pushes for stripping the guy of his Pulitzer).

 

Oh, only the "conquer Moscow" foolishness that you have rejected.

Well, if you think that Ukraine can keep the pressure up for ten years or so, maybe so. Maybe so.

 

What I'd like to see is having the USA send countless long range missiles to Ukraine. When Russia takes out electricity in Ukraine then Ukraine could do something similar in Russia? Bombing in Russia by Ukraine would hopefully soar the Russia population against the war.

That assumes that the Russia people don't believe the silly lies that Russia is fighting Nazis in Ukraine.

 

I would like to see the source of the "10 years" estimate please.

 

Just how long it took us to leave Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. A large economy can blunder along for quite awhile if the conflict isn't of an existential nature.

What's your estimate for how long it will take?

 

I read the following opinion online.
Here is a translation:
West’s policy, to support Ukraine enough to simply survive rather than win in the face of Russia’s war of attrition, didn't help to end the war.
Many Ukrainians, from officials to military and civilians, have expressed quiet hope that Trump could get tough with the Russian President in an effort to stop Russia’s advance.

A ceasefire was always inevitable — but now, more than two years into this war, Ukraine finds itself in a much worse position.
Since the first ceasefire was considered, Ukraine has lost even more territory, and the human toll has been devastating.

According to the Wall Street Journal, between 750,000 and 1 million casualties have been reported. That’s hundreds of thousands of men, women, and children senselessly killed or maimed — lives shattered because leaders, from Boris Johnson to others, prioritized geopolitical maneuvering over human life. They sat safely in offices, thousands of miles from the battlefield, playing a deadly game with people’s futures, treating their lives as cheap, disposable pawns.

The consequences are tragic, and the cost has been beyond measure. It’s time to ask: what could have been avoided if diplomacy had been prioritized sooner?

In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. Nearly four in 10 Ukrainians (38%) believe their country should keep fighting until victory.

Another interesting opinion:
https://kyivindependent.com/how-will-russia-war-in-ukraine-end/

 

I don't believe the intensity of these two wars are even remotely comparable.

 

Talking about "existential threats", here is a snippet from an "academic paper" from a prominent blogger and vodka enthusiast:

I really don't quite understand how to begin looking for a common ground with this. It's not about territory - it's about existence of a big enough stick to keep these ... individuals... on their swamps and not threatening people.

BTW, this is written by Dmitry Medvedev, current Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the "Russian Federation" and former President of "Russian Federation".

 

I think Dmitry Medvedev should drink a gallon of vodka in about an hour and then die with his face lying in a pool of vomit. I will even volunteer to pay for the gallon of vodka!

His words reflect silly Putin type thinking. Putin is going to continue with his Ukraine war as long as he concludes it's in his best interest.

 

This stuff is almost common knowledge in Russia. In fact, the claim that there's no separate Ukrainian nation was the party line since at least Empress Catherine, who commissioned the first comprehensive history account on her empire, Nikolay Karamzin's "History of the Russian State". Fun fact: the book is based on many, many records originals of which were "lost" and haven't been seen by anyone but him. In other words, they're falsified, to serve the interests of the ethically German Schlezwig-Holstein-Gottorp-Romanov dynasty. This is the root of all Russian ideology ever since.

 

In other words, they want us not to exist anymore. That's the play.

 

Can Ukraine win a war of attrition against Russia?

 

True. This is what they dish out for domestic consumption. Since the late 1600ies.

 

This depends a lot on the Western aid.

 

And Trump gets to be President next month. Well, we shall see.