Trump and the Ukraine War

I take your point, Stanislav, but really, endless war is horrifying. In Ukraine's case, it may also be impossible. Unfortunately it may also be unavoidable.

You seem to think Ukraine will never agree to cede any territory to Russia. You ought to know. I can certainly understand the sentiment. But Putin won't back down either and Ukraine cannot defeat him. So the war will go on.

 

Khuylo will not back down while a sliver of free Ukraine remains. Unfortunately, the only real way to protect Ukraine that doesn't upend world order (NATO membership) requires the same kind of courage on behalf of the West as actually helping Ukraine win. So any kind of "peace" that I see achieved is just appeasement, How well does this work?
Cyprus kind of solution (ceasefire, rapid path to NATO and EU for Ukraine) could work even without immediate return of all territories (forgetting for a moment human rights implications for people in occupied territories and displaced persons). Is it on offer? Realistically?

 

No. You're right. Appeasement doesn’t work.

 

But Trump is apparently considering appeasement for Putin and withdrawing support for Ukraine if they don't agree according to CNN.

 

I don't think it has much to do with what is best for the USA or our allies. Trump's only consideration is his personal gain or his personal loss. This is just the way that the mind works for someone with Narcissistic Personality Disorder. Trump is in Putin's pocket because that's where he sees his best potential long term gain. Of course, Putin may also be threatening something negative as well over Trump's head. Hopefully, he'll see political gain in coming in on Ukraine's side, at least a good bit. We'll see.

 

Presidential candidates often make ambitious declarations and promises during their campaigns. While some genuinely attempt to deliver on these commitments, many face challenges that lead to those key promises being delayed or abandoned altogether.

For example, during his campaign, President Biden gave hope to many undocumented migrants by pledging to reform immigration laws, create a pathway to legal status, and protect families. However, these proposals never came to fruition, leaving many disillusioned.

Former President Trump and now President-Elect made bold declarations during his campaign, such as building a border wall. While portions of the wall were constructed, other parts of the promise remained unfulfilled, highlighting the gap between political rhetoric and practical outcomes.

On the global stage, the ongoing war in Ukraine underscores the importance of international cooperation. The question of what is acceptable or achievable in this conflict lies with the Ukrainian people and their elected leadership. Their resilience is supported by assistance from the U.S. and other nations, which has been crucial in their fight against Russian aggression.

Meanwhile, EU countries bordering Russia are using this critical time to bolster their defenses and prepare for potential threats. The prolonged conflict has also taken a toll on Russia itself, depleting its resources and weakening its position globally.

 

Ukraine needs to win by losing.

In Revenge of the Nerds, the frats are competing in the Greek Olympics. In the tug-of-war contest, the Alpha Betas (the football team, essentially) drag the ROTC guys through the mud in their match. When the nerds (Lamda Lamda Lamda) faced the Alpha Betas, the nerds just let go of the rope, watched the Alpha Betas fall backwards, and didn't get dragged through the mud. They couldn't win, so they won by losing.

Ukraine should let go of the rope. Negotiate a deal with Russia that ends hostilities and cedes some land. In return, Russia agrees to stop attacking and stop trying to invade. Because NATO won't admit an occupied country, this would clear the way for Ukraine's admission to NATO, thus ensuring lasting peace with Russia. (As much as any NATO nation can be so assured.)

There are lots of reasons to say this won't work, but one that says it will: it must.

 

But will the Ukrainians agree?

If China or Canada occupied part of the U.S., the only way I'd be willing to accept the loss is if it were Texas. Then, sure. Otherwise, no.

 

Well, I might let Canada have Indiana but China has got to take Texas otherwise no deal.

 

And what indikates that Putin 1) will agree to this and 2) will keep his end of the bargain? Remember that russia is a signatory to the UN Charter (well... sort of) and at least two treaties with Ukraine promising to respect its "territorial integrity". Besides, what you're describing is "NATO in exchange for territories" - something no one offers, not russia, nor NATO.

That's not how it works. At all. Just as a logical construct.

 

No one is going to beat Russia, so what's the end game?

 

If they don't, they will suffer until they lose.

 

Because Russia is so unbeatable?

 

The problem is that Putin can throw a practically unlimited number of Russia lives at the war in Ukraine. The only way I see Ukraine winning is if they were able to to pour enough destruction across Russia to get the Russian public demand the war end. I don't think Ukraine can get sufficient missiles, planes and bombs to accomplish that. What other scenario can you see?

 

What is being proposed here now is something Ukraine could have considered over two years ago but they choose to fight. All the lives lost, all the destruction would be for what?
Ultimately, the decision will rest with Ukraine. If I recall correctly, even President Zelensky has indicated a willingness to consider some form of territorial compromise. At what cost, though? Yet saving lives and normalizing life, economy, rebuilding strenght are nobel causes.
Meanwhile, Russia appears to be on the brink of economic collapse. The ruble is already hovering around 112+ to the US dollar, now back to 100, and China has started raising prices on its goods and imposing tariffs on Russian merchandise. These shifts could be significant factors as both sides navigate this ongoing conflict.

 

Of course they are. So are we. So are a lot of countries. Nuclear weapons do that.

Ukraine, of course, gave up their nukes when they thought they were dealing with a reforming and democratic Russia.

Ukraine's only hope, absent a negotiation, is a military loss and occupation, followed by a long, protracted occupation by Russian forces, an asymmetrical war against them, and holding out for decades until Russia gets tired and goes home.

Of course, they could lose that and simply be conquered.

What they will NOT do is win a conventional war against Russia. Russia's size, military, and nuclear weapons will see to that.

 

Even if Putin falls in a coup, the war still won't end in any way satisfactory to Ukraine. Russia is everywhere on Ukrainian territory. Ukraine hasn't been able to dislodge them. Russia will never agree to reparations. Russia will never, ever give up Crimea. Any such peace would have to be imposed on a Russia facing annihilation and that isn't going to happen short of a general nuclear war. The West, meanwhile, will not resort to first use under any circumstances.

The reverse, I'm sorry to say, meaning a peace forced on Ukraine in the face of annihilation, is far too realistic an outcome.

 

Not true. Nuclear powers lose wars all the time. Both USSR and USA lost in Afganistan. And putin's rurssa, senator, is no USSR.

The idea that not getting his way in his own war of choice, to putin, is akin to "annihilation" that will make him desperate and start a nuclear war (which is the only scenario when his own physical safety is in any danger) is a piece of desinformatziya.

 

But Afghanistan didn't, in turn, conquer those countries. Russia is determined to conquer Ukraine, but Ukraine cannot conquer Russia. Ever. Again, it can only hope to fight an asymmetrical war until the Russians give up and go home. I seriously doubt the success of that. Unlike in Afghanistan, the Ukrainians have a LOT to try to hold onto.

 

Sorry, I know it was meant to sound profound, but it's gibberish. Who in the world wants to conquer putinistan?
Certainly not Zelenskiy (other than as an entertainer - I believe he actually has won some russian movie prize for one of many romcoms or for a TV sitcom "Svaty" back in the day. Plus he got this start competing in the KVN comedy league, and many people say his team "95yi Kvartal" was up for the championship and was robbed).