Tea leaves?

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by nosborne48, Aug 24, 2020.

  1. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    There is no rationale for professional pollsters to intentionally sandbag a poll. Plus it would take more than just one company. It would have to be a conspiracy of polling organizations. That kind of stuff only happens in QAnon land and such. Read the Vox article that Rich pointed too. It explains why polling is so difficult and how this kind of thing happens in the real world.
  2. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Bill with his QAnon again :).
    As I said before I don't trust the polls not take them seriously. I read the Vox. I like what it had to say but I also know that there are people involved.
    They should have learned from 2016 and be more accurate but they failed in my opinion.
    Transparency in how a poll was conducted is associated with better accuracy.
    Citizens receive information about polls through the media can affect the outcome of elections. Voting behavior is affected by biased reporting of poll results.
    This for all sides.
    This all suggests that election results could be sensitive to biases in the way that the traditional media reports poll results.
    SpoonyNix likes this.
  3. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    I didn't claim it was part of any QAnon theory. I claimed that it was similar to a QAnon type theory. In that it is conspiratorial and without any basis in fact. Say someone wanted to even do this polling error on purpose, it is unclear who such an error hurts or helps! Reasonable argument would seem to me that there would be pros and cons for both Republicans and Democrats for this particular error. So why would anyone want to hurt their professional reputation doing it and why would they even be interested in joining such a conspiracy? If they were caught anyone involved would be ruined! It just doesn't make any sense, at least not to me.

    I'm not claiming that the polls are not off. I'm claiming that just like 2016 they are only off by a very small margin just like in 2016. I've stated many times that Biden's lead in each state was razor thin in the battle ground states just like 2016. Just like in 2016 I'm sure that the overall 2020 national poll numbers are going to be very close.

    When it makes more sense to think there is no conspiracy, why is there tendency to think that some conspiracy might be involved especially when there is zero evidence?
  4. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Bill I will admit I think there are times when I see corruption everywhere.
    Just were people involved there is always a % of biased and corrupt people. Why would people working in polls be different?
    When corruption sets in, it doesn’t stop it goes down.
    I don't have any evidence and its my speculation that some polls were intentionally targeting specific groups in specific areas.
    And the media can further misinterpret the polls in a bias way to affect the peoples minds.
    Noting more then speculation on my side.
  5. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

  6. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I'm not so sure about that. The election has been pretty placid so far.
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  7. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Editor's note: Economic historian Phil Magness wrote the following yesterday and I thought it made sense so I'd share it.

    A few quick thoughts on whatever it was that happened last night:
    • A complete moron with historically high unpopularity ratings basically fought this election to a draw (or near-draw depending on whatever happens in the counts), and did so facing the most aggressively one-sided media coverage skew against a major party candidate in US electoral history.
    • The "blue wave" that was touted as a near-certainty by the same media and pollsters less than 24 hours ago didn't materialize. If anything, it appears that the Ds will lose a few seats in the House that they picked up in 2018 due to unusually strong Democrat showings in a few center-right leaning districts that year.
    • It would be a mistake to conclude that these outcomes reflect the wider popularity of Trumpism. His approval never veers north of the low 40s. Rather, we have a clear and politically determinative segment of the electorate consisting of people who pinched their noses and voted for him as a repudiation of the media, big tech etc., and out of disapproval for the alternative.
    • It turns out that if you spend 4 straight years publicly ostracizing people for simply having political beliefs that diverge from the media and treating anyone who even considered voting for Trump as if they had violated a grave moral taboo, those same people will lie to you when you ask them who they intend to vote for next time.
    • Expect Trump to descend deeply into conspiracist territory over the next few days as he wages a challenge to any close returns that go against him. There's a nonzero chance that this strategy could result in a successful election challenge (see 1876) or at least tie it up in courts for a month (see 2000), even if its success becomes less likely if the final counts in the key states show Biden ahead.
    • Also expect the very same media elites, academics, and Democrat elected officials who spent the last 4 years publicly questioning the legitimacy of Trump's win in 2016, and publicly advancing far-fetched conspiracy theories of their own about stolen elections (see Stacey Abrams) to insist that it's inappropriate for Trump to stoke the exact same thing about Biden.
    • Whoever emerges victorious will do so without an electoral mandate, with a divided congress, and with nearly half of the country openly skeptical about the legitimacy of their win. That's probably a good thing on net, as it will severely hamper any aggressive legislative efforts over the next 2 years.
  8. Maniac Craniac

    Maniac Craniac Moderator Staff Member

    Incredible. It doesn't get too much closer than this!

  9. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

    Wait until dark.
  10. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Hope not. We don't turn into ravening timber wolves in the U.S. like y'all do up there on the frozen tundra!;)
    Johann likes this.
  11. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

  12. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I know, I know...the darkness and cold close in...food gets scarce...you turn feral just to survive!
  13. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Feral Canadians...sounds like a great video game!
  14. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    • Presumably, calling him "a complete moron" would have not be one-sided (since Mr. Magness thinks it warranted). Perhaps the media could just do that isstead of their unspeakably one-sided skew-a-thon that actually happened.
    • Fair enough - a Blue Wave did not materialize
    • Let me distill that: a "determinative segment" is OK to foist a "complete moron" on a nation in order to own the libs. Gee, such a reasonable bunch of folks.
    • See above. I love it how people first revel in open cruelty towards their fellow citizens and then complain how they are "ostracized". The very same people are fond of calling others "snowflakes"
    • This is already evident. Don't think Trump will succeed there though.
    • Both-side-ism. Also, Kemp did steal an election from Stacey Abrams; if his antics did not determine the outcome (didn't they though?) it was not for lack of trying. Black votes matter!
    • Yay for the Do Nothing Congress!
    Let me guess: economic historian Phil Magness is fairly comfortable in his privilege, so he feels he won't likely be harmed by political inaction. Good for him and his ilk, I guess.
  15. Johann

    Johann Well-Known Member

  16. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Donald Trump declared himself the winner of the 2020 election.

    This is of course another silly lie by our lying President who has publicly told over 25,000 false or misleading statements since taking office. Here's my serious question. Is this the ONLY lie that Donald Trump told that NOBODY believed? I'm really curious. Did literally no one believe this and is this the first time? Is this the only one?
  17. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    He's working the refs.

    People who vote for him do not care about the tens of thousands of lies. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about the more than 20 accusations of sexual harassment, sexual abuse, and rape. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about the more than $8 million dollars of tax payer money he's collected and put into his pocket. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about his disgusting statements about people he hates. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care he obstructed justice. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care he violated campaign laws by paying off two women so they wouldn't talk about his affairs with them. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about the horrific levels of preventable sickness and death from the novel coronavirus. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about exploding the deficit through a huge tax cut for the wealthy. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about his failures with North Korea and Iran. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about his kowtowing to oppressive leaders. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about his disastrous trade war with China. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care that he tried to shake down the president of Ukraine to get him to announce an investigation into the Bidens. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about his abandonment of our allies in the ME, the Kurds, left to die on the battlefield. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    They don't care about his support for white supremacists and his racist statements. If they did, they wouldn't vote for him.

    You get the idea. So, why do they vote for him? Because they want him as our president. That's why anyone votes for a candidate for president.

    It's okay. But own it, please.
  18. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Working the refs is an excellent theory. I think he will repeat this lie about winning the election and it being stolen from him by cheating Democrats so often that eventually his fans will believe him.
  19. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

  20. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    AZ Maricopa county just counted a lot of ballots that are in support of President Trump that may give Trump advantage.
    So its close.

    Whats happening with blocking observers who are allowed by law to observe?
    Looks like laws are being violated.
    Legitimate oversight is allowed by law, in PA, the count is going on without allowing observers.
    Not good for PA. Fraud and corruption.
    Lets have competent authorities handle this. Videos and testimonies are there.
    Post Offices collecting ballots that are sent after Nov 3.
    Again if this is true its troubling.
    More like Belarus?
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2020

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