Let the Betting Begin - Bernie's VP

Wrote a long response and blew the 10-minute edit limit. In short: 1) Your principled and strategic stand is precisely Bernie's "political revolution". I can't stand this stuff. 2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Douglas

 

It's caught me many times... can we have a popular uprising to change this, it doesn't need to be centered around a demagogue, we can use memes??

 

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While it would be interesting to know what deals were made, the fact that the Biden campaign is having to do this... is very concerning as it transitions into a general election.

 

Heirophant put a great info-graphic in the other thread, that stated that Pete's voters likely won't change the dynamics to a great extent. I'm a bit hesitant on what ever methodology they used, as almost every Pete supporter that I know, views him as the centrist/moderate candidate... and I would think are likely to now view that as Biden. Rumors were out there that the Biden campaign had been in talks with both Pete and Amy's, and now it appears that is the case, as both have announced they are supporting Biden. While this is essentially normal political jockeying, the fact that the establishment candidate has been doing so poorly opens a number of questions. Keep in mind, that there was quite a bit of political talk prior to the primary season of even major DNC figures questioning Biden's competency to close this. Reportedly, even Obama had candid conversations on the matter. I don't consider it concerning that private deals were made behind closed doors, that is life. I'm concerned that if the DNC congregates around Biden in this manner, it's indicative of struggles that they will face when the campaign transitions to a general election. Realistically, while I know few likely Democratic voters who dislike Biden enough to not vote for him, I know few likely Democratic voters who are enthusiastic of him as a candidate. With there being many arguments that presidential campaigns are primarily run simply by voter mobilization and not actual issues, his candidacy could be a significant detriment to mobilization campaigns.

I agree. Besides, Warren has a history of not backing down... even when she arguably should have.

 

That's her brand... "she persisted". She's by far the most talented of all candidates; it's shame she's not polling higher.

 

I'm inclined to agree. Although, I think she's been on a downward spiral politically since the Pocahontas incident, and I honestly don't think she'll recover.

 

Speaking of which . . . One thing that trashed her beautifully is the photoshopped version of a song from Irving Berlin's musical Annie Get Your Gun. (The original featured Betty Hutton and can also be found on YouTube.) But the Liz Warren version is a gem in itself.

 

Today is Super Tuesday and 14 states are holding primaries (elections or caucuses). So what's going to happen when the smoke clears this evening (or whenever, California counting will be very slow).

On the Republican side, I expect 14 Trump victories. My California ballot had a dozen or so "Republican" challengers, but I only recognized one, Bill Weld. I can't imagine him or any of the others winning a single Republican primary. I haven't seen a single Weld ad on Bay Area TV or heard about any political events, either.

On the Democratic side, the exact opposite is true.

Here in California, by far the bulk of TV advertising has been by Bloomberg. I've seen ads for Biden and for Elizabeth Warren too, but combined they were fewer than Bloomberg's. Very little Bernie advertising on TV (I don't recall seeing any), but lots on the internet, on places like Facebook.

So are we are going to see Bloomberg doing well, perhaps showing that elections can be bought? Or at least that "moderates" consider him a stronger alternative to Biden?

My own sense is that despite the dearth of advertising, Bernie is the one generating all of the excitement. Twenty-somethings absolutely love him and his anti-establishment persona.

And my prediction is that Bernie wins California by double digits. (~30%+ of the primary vote, with Bloomberg and Biden each about ~20%. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Bloomberg to come in second in California.

The Democrats' Byzantine proportional representation rules will complicate matters. Delegates are awarded proportional to percentage of the vote. But with a requirement that a candidate must get at least 15% of the vote to win delegates. That will squeeze out the weaker players and maybe even Elizabeth Warren (if she can't reach the 15% threshold) and help Bernie add to his delegate total.

I'm far less aware of what's happening in other states. My gut tells me that Biden will do pretty well in the South, very well in states where blacks are half the Democrats. Biden might well take Texas too, the evening's second biggest prize. But I'd expect Bernie to do well in Massachusetts and Colorado.

So all in all, I expect Super Tuesday to deliver mixed results. Bernie and Biden will each get several high profile victories. I'm very interested to see if Bloomberg breaks through anywhere. (Virginia perhaps?) My gut kind of anticipates that Elizabeth Warren doesn't win any states and may drop out on Wednesday or Thursday. Or maybe not.

But given the proportional delegate allocations, Bernie and Biden may end up with most of the pluralities that they can spin as victories, but the delegate counts will be a lot closer.

And that suggests a brokered convention. Elizabeth Warren and Bloomberg might want to stay in so as to become highly-courted king-makers, when nobody has enough delegates to win outright on the first ballot. If Bernie comes into Milwaukee with the most delegates and the others maneuver to exclude him and deliver the nomination to one of themselves, I expect riots not unlike the Democrats' 1968 convention.

 

In only 13 contests? Good luck!

 

Don't go out and buy armbands, poster board, and spray paint just yet. If you think the 1968 riots were about a stupid contested political convention, you are severely misinformed. Contested ("brokered") conventions had been the norm for our entire history to that point; we were just then seeing a shift towards more emphasis on primaries. The riots weren't about that at all.

If Sanders has a plurality going into the convention, yet does not receive the nomination, he should take it like a good sport, because it will be by the rules his camp had a hand in developing and he agreed to.

 

Down in San Diego, California, I've seen mostly Bloomberg TV ads by far. My mailbox has been filled everyday for the past week with Bloomberg mailings. I've seen Warren and Buttigieg TV ads but no Biden ads.

I was expecting Bloomberg to do well in California but mostly by people that were looking for an alternative to Sanders. After South Carolina, I'll guess that most of those kind of folks will be voting for Biden. Your percentage guesses aren't too bad from my view but I'd probably guess a few more delegates for Biden and a few less for Bloomberg. There's been a large number of early voting ballots mailed in here in California. Those may reflect numbers closer to your guess.

Trump was trolling the Democrats with the statement that the "establishment" Democrats were pulling the rug out from under Bernie again. I'll just, begrudgingly , throw out some Kudos to Bernie on his response.

 

I'm not really tracking this but I just heard that Biden won Virginia. I think that's a big win.

 

In the end, we’ll get the government and president that we deserve.

 

....and Warren calls it, or here.

 

It will be the best government that money can buy