Let the Betting Begin - Bernie's VP

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by Vonnegut, Feb 27, 2020.

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  1. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly

    The Libertarian Party's magazine is called "LP News".

    I realize that you don't understand how some people who actually believe in their principles would rather vote for what they want and not get it, than vote for what they don't want and get it. Fine.

    But there are also at least two strategic reasons to vote for the candidate that you actually like, even if it's profoundly unlikely they'll win.

    1. In many states, getting a certain percentage leads to ballot access for a span of time without the cumbersome task of gathering petition signatures every year (part of the way the corrupt major parties try to protect themselves from competition).

    2. There's a longer term strategy of sending a message to one or the other major party that if their nominee is lame enough, they'll lose support to third party candidates at the polls and lose as a result. I know that one's hard to grasp when we're told every four years like clockwork that "this is the most important election of our lifetime!!!1!" but it's still the case.

    Most of his supporters don't understand the consequences of what would happen were all of his plans to be implemented. You cannot add $97 trillion in spending without completely obliterating the economy. It would be a complete disaster that would make Argentina look like Singapore. And considering that the U.S. economy is the lynchpin of the global economy, we're talking about a major global depression. And you don't have to be libertarian to understand this, even CNN put the price tag of a Sanders administration at $60 trillion. That's what one is supporting by supporting him, and sorry, but that's insane in the membrane.

    Really? I had no idea that was your opinion. ;)
     
  2. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

     
  3. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    Wrote a long response and blew the 10-minute edit limit. In short: 1) Your principled and strategic stand is precisely Bernie's "political revolution". I can't stand this stuff. 2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_Douglas
     
  4. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

    It's caught me many times... can we have a popular uprising to change this, it doesn't need to be centered around a demagogue, we can use memes??
     
  5. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

    LINK

    While it would be interesting to know what deals were made, the fact that the Biden campaign is having to do this... is very concerning as it transitions into a general election.
     
  6. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly

    Even if one is a Biden fan, I'm not sure why this is concerning. He's probably the chief beneficiary of both of this week's dropouts, although Warren will also probably do much better tomorrow than she would have otherwise. And if his campaign arranged it in exchange for favors the likes of you and me will never know about, is that concerning, or is it just politics?
     
  7. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly

    Also, even though this breaks my rule of not making predictions, I don't think Warren is going to follow suit any time soon. She's well funded, and smart enough to understand that she's a contestant in an elimination reality show where anything can happen. So even if she doesn't win a single state, I think she's looking at delegate counts, and is hoping to make it to a brokered convention where she might emerge as a compromise candidate.

    But that said, all this is so unpredictable that she could prove me wrong an hour from now. :)
     
  8. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

    Heirophant put a great info-graphic in the other thread, that stated that Pete's voters likely won't change the dynamics to a great extent. I'm a bit hesitant on what ever methodology they used, as almost every Pete supporter that I know, views him as the centrist/moderate candidate... and I would think are likely to now view that as Biden. Rumors were out there that the Biden campaign had been in talks with both Pete and Amy's, and now it appears that is the case, as both have announced they are supporting Biden. While this is essentially normal political jockeying, the fact that the establishment candidate has been doing so poorly opens a number of questions. Keep in mind, that there was quite a bit of political talk prior to the primary season of even major DNC figures questioning Biden's competency to close this. Reportedly, even Obama had candid conversations on the matter. I don't consider it concerning that private deals were made behind closed doors, that is life. I'm concerned that if the DNC congregates around Biden in this manner, it's indicative of struggles that they will face when the campaign transitions to a general election. Realistically, while I know few likely Democratic voters who dislike Biden enough to not vote for him, I know few likely Democratic voters who are enthusiastic of him as a candidate. With there being many arguments that presidential campaigns are primarily run simply by voter mobilization and not actual issues, his candidacy could be a significant detriment to mobilization campaigns.

    I agree. Besides, Warren has a history of not backing down... even when she arguably should have.
     
  9. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    That's her brand... "she persisted". She's by far the most talented of all candidates; it's shame she's not polling higher.
     
  10. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

    I'm inclined to agree. Although, I think she's been on a downward spiral politically since the Pocahontas incident, and I honestly don't think she'll recover.
     
  11. Steve Levicoff

    Steve Levicoff Well-Known Member

    Speaking of which . . . One thing that trashed her beautifully is the photoshopped version of a song from Irving Berlin's musical Annie Get Your Gun. (The original featured Betty Hutton and can also be found on YouTube.) But the Liz Warren version is a gem in itself.

     
  12. heirophant

    heirophant Well-Known Member

    Today is Super Tuesday and 14 states are holding primaries (elections or caucuses). So what's going to happen when the smoke clears this evening (or whenever, California counting will be very slow).

    On the Republican side, I expect 14 Trump victories. My California ballot had a dozen or so "Republican" challengers, but I only recognized one, Bill Weld. I can't imagine him or any of the others winning a single Republican primary. I haven't seen a single Weld ad on Bay Area TV or heard about any political events, either.

    On the Democratic side, the exact opposite is true.

    Here in California, by far the bulk of TV advertising has been by Bloomberg. I've seen ads for Biden and for Elizabeth Warren too, but combined they were fewer than Bloomberg's. Very little Bernie advertising on TV (I don't recall seeing any), but lots on the internet, on places like Facebook.

    So are we are going to see Bloomberg doing well, perhaps showing that elections can be bought? Or at least that "moderates" consider him a stronger alternative to Biden?

    My own sense is that despite the dearth of advertising, Bernie is the one generating all of the excitement. Twenty-somethings absolutely love him and his anti-establishment persona.

    And my prediction is that Bernie wins California by double digits. (~30%+ of the primary vote, with Bloomberg and Biden each about ~20%. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Bloomberg to come in second in California.

    The Democrats' Byzantine proportional representation rules will complicate matters. Delegates are awarded proportional to percentage of the vote. But with a requirement that a candidate must get at least 15% of the vote to win delegates. That will squeeze out the weaker players and maybe even Elizabeth Warren (if she can't reach the 15% threshold) and help Bernie add to his delegate total.

    I'm far less aware of what's happening in other states. My gut tells me that Biden will do pretty well in the South, very well in states where blacks are half the Democrats. Biden might well take Texas too, the evening's second biggest prize. But I'd expect Bernie to do well in Massachusetts and Colorado.

    So all in all, I expect Super Tuesday to deliver mixed results. Bernie and Biden will each get several high profile victories. I'm very interested to see if Bloomberg breaks through anywhere. (Virginia perhaps?) My gut kind of anticipates that Elizabeth Warren doesn't win any states and may drop out on Wednesday or Thursday. Or maybe not.

    But given the proportional delegate allocations, Bernie and Biden may end up with most of the pluralities that they can spin as victories, but the delegate counts will be a lot closer.

    And that suggests a brokered convention. Elizabeth Warren and Bloomberg might want to stay in so as to become highly-courted king-makers, when nobody has enough delegates to win outright on the first ballot. If Bernie comes into Milwaukee with the most delegates and the others maneuver to exclude him and deliver the nomination to one of themselves, I expect riots not unlike the Democrats' 1968 convention.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
  13. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    In only 13 contests? Good luck!
     
  14. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    Don't go out and buy armbands, poster board, and spray paint just yet. If you think the 1968 riots were about a stupid contested political convention, you are severely misinformed. Contested ("brokered") conventions had been the norm for our entire history to that point; we were just then seeing a shift towards more emphasis on primaries. The riots weren't about that at all.

    If Sanders has a plurality going into the convention, yet does not receive the nomination, he should take it like a good sport, because it will be by the rules his camp had a hand in developing and he agreed to.
     
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  15. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Active Member

    Down in San Diego, California, I've seen mostly Bloomberg TV ads by far. My mailbox has been filled everyday for the past week with Bloomberg mailings. I've seen Warren and Buttigieg TV ads but no Biden ads.

    I was expecting Bloomberg to do well in California but mostly by people that were looking for an alternative to Sanders. After South Carolina, I'll guess that most of those kind of folks will be voting for Biden. Your percentage guesses aren't too bad from my view but I'd probably guess a few more delegates for Biden and a few less for Bloomberg. There's been a large number of early voting ballots mailed in here in California. Those may reflect numbers closer to your guess.

    Trump was trolling the Democrats with the statement that the "establishment" Democrats were pulling the rug out from under Bernie again. I'll just, begrudgingly :), throw out some Kudos to Bernie on his response.
     
  16. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator Staff Member

    I'm not really tracking this but I just heard that Biden won Virginia. I think that's a big win.
     
  17. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

    In the end, we’ll get the government and president that we deserve.
     
  18. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Active Member

  19. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly

    Sadly, we'll actually get the government and president that only the majority deserve, and even then certain restrictions apply.
     
  20. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator Staff Member

    It will be the best government that money can buy

    [​IMG]
     

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