Biden trailing Trump in battleground states

The scorpion and the frog.

 

So since it appears that the frogs are wising up to the scorpions' nature, things might not go well for the scorpions in 2024.

 

Interesting remark. I'd never heard of frogs vs. scorpions and I thought it might have something to do with Aristophanes' Comedy -"The Frogs." It doesn't. It's a relatively modern fable, teaching that mean people suck. They'll hurt others even if it does the meanies themselves no good. Likely origin appears to be Russia in the early 20th century.

БЛЯТЬ! My samovar is boiling over.... there. Now, about the coming Revolution....

 

You've heard of Trump's favorite variant of the story…

 

I remember the song well...

"Aw, shut up, silly woman, said the reptile, with a grin
You knew darn well I was a snake, before you took me in..."

I used to sing that to my wife once in a while ...before we got divorced.

 

Meanwhile the GOP talking heads are talking about “creating a culture of life” to convince the electorate. What they’re NOT talking about is that the Religious Right needs to back off a bit on abortion (and other issues).

Fantasyland.

 

While the cultural war issues seem to activate the Republican base. It just seems like nonsense to the rest of the electorate. The problem that they have with abortion rights is that even the Republican base generally thinks women should have control over their own bodies. The Republican elected officials (and the SCOTUS) really are in fantasyland on this one.

 

I was thinking about it this morning in Talmud study. General Election polls a year out have little predictive power. Donald Trump has certainly gained very few supporters from 2020 when he lost and before all the treachery, insurrection, and endless sniveling. He has not become more generally popular. My guess is that a large subset of those who voted for him in 2020 will vote for him in 2024 but it will be fewer.

Add to this all the bragging about appointing judges to overturn Roe plus all the criminal charges pending against him now plus maybe a conviction or two and toss in the overall disaster of the GOP run House...

I think Chris Christie is right. Trump probably can't win.

 

I agree with your analysis. I'll just add two points. First, Chris Christie's is likely correct but it is also a self serving prediction so should be taken with a grain of salt. Second, while Trump probably won't win I'm very concerned about my opinion being wrong because if it is wrong then it could mean the end of over 230 straight years of democratic government in the USA.

 

Okay, but there will be two people in the race. What about Biden? He's not exactly noted for being popular at this point. Has his support eroded, too?

Are we facing a crap shoot because the two nominees will both be extremely unpopular? I think it's safe to say that Trump will have the advantage in the Electoral College in a close race.

Also, no one expected Trump to win in 2016, either.

 

True but a lot has happened since 2016 and none of it reflects well on Trump. Biden isn't scary.

 

Depressingly true. Still, we vote by State. Texas will go Trump regardless. Texans can be as nutty as they like and it makes no difference. California will go Biden regardless of the level of left wing insanity in that gigantic zoo. Just the "usual suspects", the handful of swing states, will matter and frankly, I don't see Trump swinging them back into his column. Maybe he will but it's hard to see it. He had them in 2016 and lost them in 2020.

Of course that was my reasoning for predicting a Trump win in 2020 and that didn't happen...