Biden takes a risk

over Taiwan. He's providing the island with military support on the same footing as we provide support to sovereign nations.

China will do whatever China will do but this really is bearding the dragon in his den. I don't like to see the U.S. back Xi into a corner. I'm afraid it might precipitate matters.

 

Yes, this is new.

quote:
The package – which is part of the State Department’s foreign military financing (FMF) program – totals $80 million and will be paid for by US taxpayers.

“FMF will be used to strengthen Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities through joint and combined defense capability and enhanced maritime domain awareness and maritime security capability,” the department wrote in its notification to Congress that was reviewed by CNN.
...
The US has sold weapons to Taiwan in the past through a separate program called Foreign Military Sales (FMS). The FMF program will provide grant assistance, paid for by US taxpayers, to Taiwan in order to make those purchases.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/30/politics/us-taiwan-foreign-military-financing-program/index.html

China is going to be upset but they seem to be in a permanent upset state over the past couple years. We are still paying lip service to the "one China" policy. If we changed that then China might take action?

 

Biden has been standing up to China since becoming president, including retaining some of the things Trump initiated. I wish he'd start up the TPP, though.

China is in trouble economically .Their former one-child policy has had disastrous effects. Cities are failing. They're facing deflation, which is recessionary.

I think that's why they're exercising another form of national power: military. But all-in-all, I'm not too worried about China. They're our 3rd largest trading partner, and I suspect they'd like to keep things that way. But there will always be tension between one-party communistic capitalism and the two-party democratic version. Like exes co-parenting kids.

 

It appears hot war with Russia is around a corner. Add this to tension with China.
I was watching Japaneese news TV in English and the panel there was talking about invasion in to Russia. Speculation.

 

Scenario
Sudden missiles land in Poland, ‘The Russians did it! Our NATO ally has been attacked! We’re going to war’! Japanese TV host quoting Tucker on Hungarian vist radio interview.
"I can see that happening very easily."

1964 Vietnam was mentioned.

 

It's posible.
But out of desperation Russians already deployed Nukes to Belarus, I don't think this is good for NATO.

Russia's former PM has warned his country would have to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine's counteroffensive succeeded.

 

Which, bad as it was, notably never escalated to a hot war directly between the U.S. and Russia's predecessor. Circumstances make that outcome even less likely today, particularly the composition and self-interests of the Russian elite. (I don't like the Russian elite, but I give them credit for not being utterly suicidal.)

 

This is one of those times when I wish that I'm 100% wrong.
And there will not be NATO war with Russia or China, NK or Iran.

 

A primary Russian diplomatic play is sabre rattling with nuclear weapons. They're just trying to scare folks, plain and simple. Like a want to be bully in elementary school that is too small and weak to beat anyone up. So instead he threatens everyone by saying his big brother will beat them up.

 

Forms of national power include military, economics, government, and culture. (I'm sure people could name others).

Russia is bereft of all of these, save military. Their GDP is comparable to Texas. The only exception is fossil fuels, which is why (a) Europe is trying to wean itself from their dependence and (b) the US is trying to supplant Russia as an exporter.

Even their military power is suspect, especially conventional. (I doubt their nuclear forces are much better, but even a D- grade on them would be bad news, so let's not find out.)

The key to China is engagement. The key to Russia is containment.

 

I remember a year ago Russia kept bragging about their new hypersonic cruise missiles that were impossible to shoot down. We finally gave Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine and this much older technology didn't seem to have much problem shooting down Russia's invincible hypersonic missiles, at least not when in the hands of the Ukraine military.

 

A thug like Putin (or Trump) does everything on a “What’s in it for me?” basis. Not “What’s in it for the country?” or even “What’s in it for my friends?” I don’t see what Putin would gain by bringing NATO down on his head.

 

Putin (and Trump) have no friends. Just fellow thugs and targets for their thuggery.

 

In fact, I’d be unsurprised to learn that one of Putin’s biggest worries is how far he can push without triggering a NATO response.

 

EXACTLY! He was expecting it would be over and done with in just a few days. Similar to his takeover of Crimea. If that had been the case there wouldn't have been any opportunity for much of a negative response to even develop. Similar to his takeover of Crimea.