America’s moment of truth on Ukraine

Will dead and displaced persons participate? "Genocide then plebiscite" is an old colonizer's game; russia excels at it.

The goal of the war, for russia, is to destroy Ukraine as a viable entity. We are an "artificial, russophobe ideology created by satanic degenerate godless Anglo-Saxons". They will not stop at Donbass unless stopped.

 

Sunk costs. If the Vietnam War taught us anything it's that continuing to make hopeless war because of the dead is foolish.

This War must eventually end. All wars do. How will it end? Outright Russian victory and the anhillation of Ukraine as an independent sovereign? Possible. Outright defeat and repulsion of the Russian invaders? Possible but less likely even than total Russian victory.

So. There will be negotiations but not effective ones until after the U.S. election. If Trump wins, Putin will push on because Ukraine will lose its most vital support. Russian victory gets much more likely.

If Biden wins, Russia will get serious about peace rather than face another four years of grinding warfare and international sanctions.

What might a settlement look like? Russia keeps Crimea and parts of occupied eastern Ukraine and pays no restitution. Sanctions are lifted.

Ukraine gets a Russian guarantee of its borders and Russia makes no objection to Ukraine joining NATO as a full member up to and including stationing NATO forces in the country.

The Ukrainian officials who sign will be villified and forced from office. Some may well be assassinated. But the peace will hold because of that NATO nuclear umbrella.

Ukraine might join the EU (but they won't if they're smart.)

No one likes any of this but my best guess is that this is what will happen if Biden wins.

 

Hold it right there, Vladimir! That's getting too personal. Exactly what, as one of the above, have you got against ME?

 

Of course. The only way to stop the inevitable world war is to show respect for the great power and satisfy their vital and legitimate interests in Sudetenland and Ruhr Region. Peace for this generation.

 

YES, I get that! My question for YOU is what the future will look like if I'm WRONG? Endless war? A unified NATO attack on Russia that would certainly go nuclear? Tell me, Stanislav, what do YOU see happening?

 

Ukraine was able to significantly alter the situation on the battlefield once first 8 HIMARS systems (far from the most capable) and a few of their analogues arrived. Several Patriot systems altered the air defence game, again.
This is what will happen: Western allies will get their sh#t together in supplying Ukrainian Armed Forces with kit they need. UAF will push harder on the invaders, and push them back, if not back to their borders then at least to pre - February 2022 positions. Ukraine joins NATO. Russia is forced into some kind of ceasefire. Sanctions continue. Ukraine joins the EU (which is, believe me, not the worst fate; all the EU regulations while not ideal at least will impose some discipline on Ukrainian government). Ukraine realises its potential in arms manufacture and builds the military that is an important NATO asset. Long term, Crimea and, should russia keeps control of it, DNR/LNR entity returns to Ukraine under some kind of political process. What happens to russia within its borders is utterly uninteresting; hopely there's some process for controlling or securing the nukes. (before you say that the latter is impossible, let me remind you that the US successfully pushed Ukraine into giving up, not only nukes, but strategic bombers as well - the very same Tu-90's russian terrorists used literally yesterday to murder civilians in Dnipro, a city their fascistic doctrine considers a "russian city").

 

The most likely way I can imagine something like that happening is if Putin died and whoever took over decided to just end it. The main advantage of ending it from the Russian leader perspective is that sanctions against Russia would end. So I can imagine a leader after Putin being interested in that path.

 

I don't know, man, russist MAGA circles uses "Anglo-Saxons" practically interchangeably with "international bankers' cagal" as a shorthand for all evil. Ironically, because it was Bush/Blair who neutered Ukraine and kept it in "russian sphere of influence" in the 90'ies. Clinton and Obama continued these policies btw. That's not even mentioning Moscow Don Trump. Biden's actions, as much as we would like more and faster, are positively heroic in comparison.

Funny how this works: last month, there was a major terrorist act near Moscow: a mass shooting at a concert venue called Krokus International. Naturally, putler pinned it on Ukraine, even though it was Afgan branch of ISIS. But there were some interesting tidbits: the venue was never inspected for safety because on paper it was still "under construction". Even funnier, the owner of the building, Aras Agalarov, is the very same person who helped broker the infamous Trump Tower meeting where Trump campaign bargained for dirt on Hillary. Apparently he's on the first name basis with Don Jr.; shady British music producer refers to him simply as "Aras" expecting DJTJ to know who that is. He's a scion of a major Moscow developer, dual Russian/Azerbaijan citizen who is a pop singer in that country and an ex-husband of the daughter of its ruling family (granddaughter of the KGB demigod Comrade General President Heydar Aliev; in Soviet times, Captain Putin didn't have rank nor trust to be his limo driver). And they are after stupid Hunter Biden, who was merely a celebrity greeter in a company of a second-tier Ukrainian crook Zlochevsky.

 

“Russia forced into some kind of ceasefire “. Exactly. You think total victory is the outcome for Ukraine. It isn’t.

 

Why? It's not inevitable. It's not particularly likely. But it's not impossible. Russia's Black Sea Fleet is already largely pushed to Novorossiysk, because it turns out they can't effectively counter little measely Ukrainian-made drone boats. Ukraine already has British missiles that can reach Crimean Bridge (just not enough of them). It is very possible, given more supplies, to screw up logistics for Crimean battle group and make them do a "good faith gesture" Kherson-style. Will it happen? I don't know. But saying it can't just encourages the orcs.

 

Nukes. Putin will use them if he's forced into a corner.

 

As long as that evil PoS Putin is in power, I think it will be difficult to end this sad war. Perhaps if Trump disappears from politics and the GOP rejoins reality then I could be mistaken.

What is most amazing to me is the strong and courageous Ukrainian heart! As long as we provide them the support they need they will continue this amazing stand against an overwhelmingly more powerful enemy. I'm very impressed!

 

If he has no chance of survival, he might. Anyway, that's a risk that the Western Democracies won't take.

 

Something to keep in mind...the time to negotiate is when you can still make war not when the enemy has his dagger at your throat.