Nuclear war

Friends, we are closer to a nuclear exchange than ever before in my lifetime and I am old enough to remember the Cuban crisis.

Putin is acting irrationally. His invasion was irrational and he now finds himself losing with no way out. He's finished no matter what. He is a psychopathic megalomaniac with no conscience and now he has nothing to lose. He just ordered the Russian nuclear arms people into high alert.

Will anyone stop him? I have no idea. God knows I hope so.

 

Five minutes after I read your post, Nosborne, I heard from a friend in Europe - he's VERY worried, naturally - this is monstrous. I believe your description of Putin is very accurate. The only thing I can hold onto is: I believe Putin has done the exact same thing before - during his Crimean invasion in 2014.

I don't pray any more. Ever. So I hope, with everything I've got. I think everyone should do one or the other, about now - their choice.

 

Indeed, he ordered to bring to higher readiness the strategic arsenal with includes nukes.
His demands regards NATO and strong pressure from the west trigger this behavior. He wants the ballistic missiles removed from Europe as they can be easily turned against Russia.
Paranoid that west plans to end his rule for a long time now and part of the plan to turn Russia to a subhuman demon country.
Russia claims that west always dehumanizing the enemy by pointing to the past conflicts and wars.
He claims Ukraine was a tool used by the west to provoke Russia to invade.
I'm far from being an expert on Russia etc but he appears to stand his ground.
Russia states that they spoiled west plan by not attacking civilian targets in Ukraine. They claim that alot of fake news is systematically flooding social media sites.
While we know that the aggression commited by Russia invading sovereign country Ukraine.
He is sure that Ukraine will be forced to completely remove demands to join NATO.
Ukraine agreed to join talks in Belarus.
And serve as warning to other countries.
This triggered Germany to dramatically increase it defence budget.
I can be wrong in my observations.
Trying to analyze by what I see and hear in the news and internet.
Putin care less about public opinion, this allows him to make moves and take actions.

I think maybe talks will bring to de escalation.
There is strong support to Ukraine .

 

May this horror pass by and be gone swiftly - and Vladimir Putin along with it.

 

My thoughts exactly, on the other hand, he's also a very sneaky SOB. He obviously likes to feel in control and this is just an opportunity for him to strut his stuff. Similar to the way he behaved at Helsinki. Putin thoughts, "Fear me. I'm the top dog here. I call the shots. I do what I want. I control people. I murder people. Fear me."

I have a suspicion that he was a bit surprised how well his land grab of Crimea went and when contemplating this invasion he had high hopes for similar results.

 

Do you think Russian senior military officials will undermine Putin? I've read a few news posts about the possibility of Putin having cancer, and I think this may weigh within his inner circle.

 

Yes, MAD assumes rational actors. Putin isn't acting in a rational manner.

I think Lerner might have it right though, if I understand Lerner's post. Perhaps Ukraine will offer Putin something he does not have right now; an off ramp. Not sure how much the Ukrainians can concede though.

What a hell of a mess.

 

I've read stuff -- but some of it doesn't look too reliable. They say Putin has Parkinson's - and also underwent (unspecified) abdominal cancer surgery. Parkinson's can have severe mental effects. If true, this is NOT good news. Word is, he's grooming his daughter, Katerina Tikhonova, former dancer, now AI scientist, as his successor. Of course, Dmitry Medvedev is also in the running.

It's also said Putin's girlfriend, Alina Khabaeva, 37, is urging him to quit. I don't know how seriously he's listening, or if he's listening at all. Judge for yourselves. I make no recommendations about the source.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13253481/putin-cancer-parkinsons-emergency-surgery/

 

What do we do...hm. If I were Joe Biden I think I'd do pretty much what's being done. I think I'd try to get the message through to the Russian general staff that we don't intend a first strike. General Miley is apparently trying to get to someone over there but they aren't answering. The message might be delivered through the Chinese though. Part of the problem is that Russia has very few friends.

If Putin launches a conventional attack on any NATO country, which I don't think he will since his resources are largely tied up in the Ukraine debacle (? fingers crossed), I'd respond with conventional means. I'd avoid touching Russia herself but I'd attack Russian warships and aircraft outside Russian airspace.

I think the most difficult possibility would be if Putin resorts to WMDs inside Ukraine that are non-nuclear. These things are generically called FAEs, fuel air explosives, or thermobaric bombs and they kill with almost nuclear efficiency. Launchers have been sighted going into Ukraine. If Putin starts using these weapons all bets are off and that's another thing I'd try to tell the Russian generals.

If Ukraine falls or surrenders we should play a long patient game. Sanctions and support partisan groups. We know how that works. Unfortunately so do the Russians.

Well, there's a few kilotons of reflection. Keep in mind, this isn't theoretical. It's very, very real.

 

I've seen suggestions that Putin may be planning to nuke Russia himself and blame it on the Ukrainians/NATO to give him an excuse to launch full-scale war against other countries. Not sure how reliable that is, but I sure hope not.

 

If Putin wanted to "back-down", he needs to do so with dignity. What would that look like? What deal would that look like?

 

"Demonizing the Devil?" Sounds imaginative - novel plot, maybe. People would know where those nukes came from ... AND on whose orders. But I'll bet there are "news sources" willing to print this stuff!

 

Russia thinks in case of MAD. They will survive.
I remember reading that most humanity will die if 7 large nukes detenated.
Nuke winter will wipe food, and prior to that radiation and deceased humans will die.
I hope this never happens.

 

He signs the peace papers, we pay some Russian general to give him a medal. Maybe two or three. Putin steps down, off the podium and goes home. For one day, the Russian headline is "Хуйло - герой" "The little p-you-know-what is a hero." That's it.

 

They're pointing out that there's a good indication that Putin did the same thing to get elected to the presidency in the first place. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings#Russian_government_involvement_theory According to the speculation, it may not even be a conventional nuke but a "dirty bomb" of the type that (almost) anyone would be able to make. Makes it easier to pin things on non-Russians.

 

I wish Putin had never happened. Eugenics should include retroactive birth control.

 

I'm pretty sure the people who are paid to analyze things at that level - would likely suspect Russia FIRST in such a case. Russia might even be their only suspect. Might be a heck of a job to prove, but our side has people who are pretty good at that, too. --Thank goodness!

Only problem - I'm pretty sure Vlad would wade in with "retaliation" long before the paperwork even got properly started. So - unfortunately, I guess that IS entirely possible. He could be in trouble -- long after some innocent country was in rubble.

 

True. But he doesn't have to convince us. It'd be to get the Russian people enthusiastic about the war and raise his flagging popularity rating. It's not like they can actually vote him out, but if he becomes too unpopular, he might be "retired" in the Soviet fashion.