Toxic question, I guess, but WCTD?

Harris continues to pull ahead. It's still technically "early days" but Labor Day is when the polls supposedly begin to matter. Harris will go into Labor Day with leads in most swing states and nationally. I don't know what the betting markets are saying but if I were to place a bet, I'd put my money on Harris winning in November.

But here's my question. If the Trump Campaign called me up and offered me, say, $10 million for my advice on how to turn the election around, what would I say? First, $10 million in gold coins, not cocaine or IOUs or stock in Trump business enterprises. And payable in advance and non-refundable.

Then...dang. How to turn this thing around? I'm honestly not sure it CAN be done. The hardest thing in the world for a politician to escape is his political past. Donald Trump has a LOT of political past and he keeps bringing it up himself. That would be my first, solid bronze recommendation. STOP TALKING ABOUT THE PAST. Give voters a vision of the future.

Hm. That's part of the problem, though. A future full of "Christian" Male White Supremacy? Basically, a future of subjugation for everyone else. Hard sell. Project 2025 is (and should be) scaring people to death.

Well, that suggests I need to give them their gold back (less a 10% handling fee). There IS NO path forward that I can see.

 

He was doing a little better among Black voters than the last time around, but with Biden dropping out of the race and the disastrous NABJ interview, Harris has begun to widen the gap among Black voters. She would have to make a major blunder for Trump to pull in more than 20% of the Black vote.

LULAC, for the first time ever, has endorsed a presidential candidate, and they endorsed Harris. I don't know whether that'll affect the Latino vote.

JD Vance was an awful pick, but if Trump drops him, that'll also look bad. Project 2025 is also dragging Trump down, and he's hardly fooling anyone with the lie that he had nothing to do with it. In 2022, he said that the Heritage Foundation was coming up with a plan for his second term.

 

There is no "Latino vote". For example, there is a stark division between the Cuban exiles and their descendants, who traditionally vote GOP, and the Mexican-Americans who tend toward the Democrats. New Mexicans have voted mostly Democratic but have frequently supported Republicans for Congress and State offices in the recent past. There are many other divisions and subgroupings as well.

It's complicated. The fact is, a socially conservative "Big Tent" GOP of the sort envisioned by the Party itself before the MAGA cancer started to take over would have a lot to offer Mexican Americans starting with emphasis on family and religious values. MAGA destroyed all of that by being what no party can long afford to be; exclusive.

 

I think this covers it pretty well. One thing that I haven't really ever figured out is why the Mexican-Americans typically vote Democrat. Most are Roman Catholic and I think most Catholics vote Republican because of the abortion issue.

 

Partly because Dems are more liberal on Immigration?

 

6 in 10 U.S. Catholics are in favor of abortion rights, Pew Research report finds (Jason DeRose, NPR, April 12, 2024)

 

How does one define "Catholic"?

 

During the Obama era I heard a Catholic analyst say there is a myth of a Catholic voting block. There are a large number of Catholics that are Catholics in name but do not follow Catholic moral teaching, etc. A number of Catholic Bishops and clergy are actually left leaning.

Another issue is immigration. What has helped bolster the numbers of Catholics and avoid some of the decline experienced by other denominations is immigration both legal and illegal. As you might imagine a significant number of the Hispanic population that comes to the United States is Roman Catholic and by significant I mean a majority. So there are active pro migrant groups run by clergy.

Even in the area of gay issues there are gay Catholic priests and Bishops. I have known gay Catholic priests and gay Catholic parishioners (very spiritual and adherent parishioners outside of that area of their life). So there is an overt adherence to Catholic teaching but what I can best describe as ignoring it in other areas.

Sure you do have some arch-Conservative Catholics. The whole issue is much more complex than simply Catholic equals conservative.

 

Be sure to get a full melt assay on that gold.
Trump might decide to give you tungsten bars painted in a thin layer of gold. You pick the melting assayist, but make him pay for the assay.

 

What does tungsten go for these days?

EDIT: Oh, yeah, surprisingly cheap. That bastard, pulling a stunt like that! I'll sue! Oh, wait...

 

60% of Latinos in the U.S. are of Mexican descent. Cubans are mostly concentrated in Florida, and they only make up about 4% of the Hispanic population. There are also generational differences in how Cubans vote. Puerto Ricans and Dominicans lean blue.

Puerto Ricans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, and Cubans make up the largest groups after Mexicans. If you add all of them together, they still don't come close to the Mexican population.

 

https://www.energyandcapital.com/beware-of-this-gold-scam/#:~:text=Scammers will sometimes take a,that's been filled with tungsten.

$22 for tungsten vs. $2400+ for gold. Bullion prices, per ounce. Tungsten and gold have similar density, making them hard to distinguish without detailed examination.

(Edited to add last sentence and link.)

 

I can't speak for Hispanics, but I grew up in a predominantly Mexican American city where most are born in the U.S. and many have families that have been in Texas for hundreds of years. They tend to vote for Democrats for economic reasons and because they believe that Republicans are racist. They do live in a red state, so their opinions come from first-hand experiences. It's actually offensive that Democrats and Republicans believe that Hispanics only care about immigration.

 

Hence your screen name.

 

No offending meant.
Where I used to live, Immigration was one of most important issues for Hispanic comunity.
Ofcorse economy and other issues are important as well.
There is the whole spectrum in the Hispanic comunity. I'm an Immigrant from old USSR, my Hispanic American friends range from many generations Americans to immigrants like me.
They care about same issues I care about.
They are my dear friends and colleagues no matter how they vote.

 

I was married to my ex-wife for about 25 years. Her family immigrated to the USA from Mexico when she was 16 years old. I had plenty of talks about politics with her, her family, and many of their friends. The discussions were about normal topics. I don't remember any discussions about immigration. They cared much more about the normal kitchen table issues like cost of items, what I'd consider just normal topics.

 

Immigration was a significant topic among Hispanics I know. Many had family members who came illegally or were illegal so it was a sensitive issue.

One of the interesting aspects was that I also knew a dyed in the wool Mexican American (mom came from Mexico) who voted Democrat without thinking and bled blue. Against any attempt to have someone show ID to vote. Yet, on immigration he had strong views against illegal immigration (undocumented migrants).

I knew another guy from Venezuela who served in the US Army. And he was a Republican who bled red white and blue.

Certainly not monolithic.

 

In people's imagination perhaps. I have known county Republican party chairman that are Hispanic along with the leadership, Reagan and Bush spoke positively about immigration. Marco Rubio is Hispanic. Ted Cruz is Hispanic.

Much of it boils down to marketing by the Democratic Party that has ensured that people believe that if you're African American you must vote for them and if you're Hispanic you must vote for them, etc. You must stay on the plantation. African Americans occasionally have criticized that the way the Democratic party takes them for granted. And one only need to look at the name calling of African Americans that do become Republicans. They are called Uncle Tom's. General Colin Powell was. Tim Scott recently was. It helps keep people in line by ensuring they pay a price.

 

You don't get that nonsense here in New Mexico. We do have a few MAGA connected politicians but most of the Republicans know better. MAGA loses here but traditional GOP doesn't necessarily.