Taiwan hot spot

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by Lerner, Oct 3, 2021.

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  1. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/02/asia/china-warplanes-taiwan-air-defense-intl-hnk/index.html

    An air defense identification zone (ADIZ) is an area outside of a country's territory and national airspace - but where foreign aircraft are still identified, monitored, and controlled in the interest of national security.
    China sees democratic Taiwan as a breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state.
    Is it a mater of time before China make a move to take over Taiwan?
     
  2. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Actually it's not so clear how Taiwan sees itself, at least, not officially. Until now, both sides have accepted the modus vivendi but Xi wants reunification as part of his legacy. Well, what Xi wants is an end to the Chinese Civil War with total victory for the Communist Party thugs. Taiwan is officially the Republic of China, the descendant of the semi fascist and incredibly corrupt dictatorship of Chaing Kai Shek. But modern Taiwan really is a democracy, more or less, and a very successful capitalist society. The CCP screams that the world has accepted the One China Policy and therefore any foreign government dealing with Taiwan directly is interfering with China's internal affairs. This from a government that ignores international law in so many ways is pretty rich.

    Now, is Xi willing to start a major shooting war to conquer and rule over a people who do not want him? Maybe. I have no special insight but it seems to me that Xi's ideal solution would be a peaceful transfer of sovereignty claims to Communist China under a version of "one country two systems" and that all the military bluster is intended to make that option seem more attractive. It might have worked that way except for the ham handed way Xi has dealt with Hong Kong.

    Sometimes I wonder if Xi is really very bright.
     
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  3. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    The former is why I think the latter is either no, or else functionally no in that his underlings don't feel safe telling him the truth.
     
  4. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    The question is what will US do or the West will do if full scale military takeover happens ?
     
  5. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Very hard to say. I think it might end up as a sort of larger scale Falklands Island operation. Any sort of attack on the mainland runs the risk of going nuclear. I don't think anyone will be willing to put troops on the Island either. But historically speaking, shooting wars at sea don't necessarily immediately result in land wars. So I suppose our submarines will be active.
     
  6. AsianStew

    AsianStew Active Member

    <yum!> I was reading this as Taiwan Hot Pot... why won't we just leave it at that...
     
  7. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    We won't do anything without the blessing of one or another international organization. I expect the UN to prove itself as worthless and hypocritical as ever but perhaps one or another of our military alliances will agree to act.
     
  8. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Whether other countries, especially Japan, agree to help or not is one thing, but even if so it's the U.S. and Taiwan itself that will have to get the job done.
     
  9. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    While I think it is prudent for the United States to take precautionary measures (primarily to prevent sending the wrong signal), I suspect macroeconomics will win out over hegemony. (And no, Hong Kong is a largely different matter.)
     
  10. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    The way Hong Kong plays into it is that those people in Taiwan that were thinking China would let them keep any form of self governance if they joined China voluntarily no longer harbor those kind of thoughts. It really wasn't that long ago that it was a pretty decent chunk of the population thought that way. My wife doesn't really know any percentages but it has been part of some major party platforms in the past. Of course China did their best to encourage that platform. A very large part of Taiwanese income is based on tourists from China.
     
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  11. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Well, if we learned anything from the Afghan debacle it's that the Taiwanese have to want their independence badly enough to risk fighting and dying for it.
     
  12. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Very true, some differences are that Afghanistan was run by a totally corrupt leader in a society that generally accepted corruption as being part of politics. Taiwan is a democracy with a history going back 50 years or so.. Taiwan has a far stronger economy than Afghanistan.

    The folks in Taiwan that thought becoming part of China would be good thing are/were generally older folks and was a shrinking minority even before Hong Kong.
     
  13. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    But Taipei has studiously avoided declaring independence. The U.S. can't do that for them. I am far from sure that the Taiwanese public overwhelmingly supports one side or the other. Xi is a temporary phenomenon. He will die or be removed at some point and re-unification with the Mainland might then look a bit better. For us in the West, China is a waiting game. If we can avoid armed conflict for a few more years, China might find herself in a position where she cannot pursue military aggression due to economic and demographic challenges at home. War avoided now might mean war avoided for the foreseeable future. Demography is destiny and the U.S. attracts immigrants. China doesn't.

    Time is on the side of the West.
     
  14. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Then again, Xi might just see things the way I do and feel pressured to act now, while he still can. He has greatly increased the number of overflights in recent days.
     
  15. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    But the cost of an invasion...Xi cannot believe that his vaunted (and expensive) Navy will survive such a war.
     
  16. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Yes, I'm afraid that war is more likely than it seems. One article I read recently stated that Xi wanted Taiwan to be "absorbed" before his tenure expired.
     
  17. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Yes, but when will his tenure expire? He managed to get himself exempted from the term limit the CCP imposed after the horrendous Mao years AND he got himself written into the state constitution. He does come up for reelection every few years but he has made many, many deadly enemies. I can't imagine him stepping down and I can't imagine anyone daring to challenge him at this point. He will hang around longer than...well...Winnie-the-Pooh!
     
  18. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Evergrande is selling off its best assets to raise cash. Bad sign. Now another gigantic property developer is following it, Fantasia Holdings, which just missed a couple hundred million dollar bond payment. The Chinese government may find containing the financial collapse harder than they thought. Finance has laws just like physics. Capitalist or communist, these laws have force.
     
  19. Vonnegut

    Vonnegut Well-Known Member

    While I’d certainly agree that is true, it is becoming increasingly apparent that these laws and physics are poorly understood and defined at best. Even the Fed report making rounds… essentially states… we don’t know how the economy works on either a national or global level... Of course, we have armies of bankers and economists who insist they do… but also can’t consistently beat a non-managed index fund without a crony capitalism assist…
     
    SteveFoerster likes this.
  20. Rich Douglas

    Rich Douglas Well-Known Member

    Quite. But I would argue socialist and Stalinist apply to China.
     

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