Syrian Army Surrenders: Is Assad’s Rule Over?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/assad-said-to-flee-damascus-for-unknown-destination/

Syrian Army Surrenders: Is Assad’s Rule Over?
In a stunning development, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled Damascus, with his regime in apparent collapse. This marks a significant blow not only to Assad’s hold on power but also to his key allies, Iran and Russia. With the Syrian army surrendering, questions arise about the future of the regime and the risk of rebel forces gaining control over Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles. Could this be the beginning of the end for Assad’s rule?

 

The speed with which things happened.
Tectonic changes are happening before our eyes.
The fall of the Assad regime to the Sunni rebel coalition is potentially a historic event, a real game changer.
This is not a local or one-off event, but a regional and global upheaval. With Israel weakening the Hezbollah and Iran, Russia busy in Ukraine, the rebels used the opportunity to attack.

Beyond the fundamental change in Syria itself, which is still unclear whether it will survive as a single state entity or split into several state entities - cantons, perhaps even hostile to each other, the event sends ripples throughout the entire space and beyond.

It marks a significant weakening of the axis led by Iran and of the regime in Tehran; poses a threat to the stability of Jordan; causes a change in the regional status of Turkey and Qatar, which believed set in motion the wheels of the Sunni takeover of Syria; And of course, also poses a complex challenge to Israel.
It can be viewed as a global change, which may also affect the war in Ukraine, and perhaps I speculate even the stability of the regime in Russia, which extended its patronage over Syria.

 

The Shah of Iran all over again.

 

That post was an excellent summary of my overall view of this.

Nuancing it a bit further I will say, "On the one hand, the devil we know is less concerning than the devil we don't know. On the other hand, I have to like it that it causes Iran and Russia consternation."

 

It appears the Iranian dominoes are crumbling. Hamas Oct 7 caused this fall.
Israel took over the Syrian part of Golan, creating a buffer zone.
We will see if Syrian rebels remeber the field hospital and the help Israel provided during the rebel war with Assad.
Any one who needed help was accepted to the hospital, many transfered to Israel for further treatment and hundreds of Syrian children delivered.

 

Israel generally has better relations with Sunni countries than Shite countries because Iran is Shite. Hopefully things will improve between Syria and Israel because of it.

 

I'm hoping we mean "Shiite." That other word has a different meaning, especially in the UK.

 

Let's just call it a Freudian slip.

 

Rebles declaring ùhat their goal is Jerusalem, amd Makka.

 

Patience!

This is obviously a very chaotic period in Syria. Some rebels bragging is not news that should mean much. They have not yet formed a government. When/if similar statements come from a Syrian government official then it will be news.

 

How can I help with your goal to conquer Alpha Centauri? Maybe I've just been watching too much Transformer movies lately?

You want to just help me take over Jerusalem instead?

 

The rebels waited patiently for their moment. During this time, they armed themselves, recruited fighters, and trained extensively.
When Israel indirectly weakened Hezbollah and Iran’s presence in Syria and Lebanon, the rebels seized the opportunity, launching a rapid and decisive attack.
In a matter of days, Assad’s army was forced to surrender.

It's important to note that these rebels are not a unified force. Some are radical jihadists, while others are more focused on local Syrian interests and may not share the same ideological extremism.

Meanwhile, following Assad’s fall, large numbers of Syrian refugees are beginning to return from Turkey and Lebanon. I hear from friends in Germany and Austria that in the EU are hopeful that more Syrians will return from Europe as well, given the shifting situation on the ground.
A halt to asylum requests,
Germany and Austria, which took in some one million and 100,000 Syrians respectively, have suspended their decisions on asylum requests amid the developments.

The future remains uncertain, and many issues remain unresolved. However, Israel remains proactive, especially as the threat from groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS continues to grow. The lessons of October 7th, 2023, have been learned—no more assumptions. Israel is determined to stay ready and prepared to repel any future attacks.

 

I hope that our discussion makes it onto the Internet videos that Lerner watches! I'll be watching this forum closely looking for the link.

 

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said that “the end of the brutal tyranny of the Syrian dictator Assad is a great relief for many people who have suffered from torture, murder, and terror.”

The latest video has been aired on major TV channels across the Middle East, including official Israeli TV channels!

 

Syria is no where near Jerusalem. It seems obvious to me that some rebel let the euphoria of victory get into his head and then nonsense came out of his mouth. Like I said, when a Syrian government official makes such a statement then it will will be news.

 

It's possible what you are saying is true, but such rebels remind me how Taliban, al-Qaida, Hamas, Hutis, and Hezbollah started. Some rebels with AK-47s and bazookas.

Officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said commanders of the elite military force were blaming each other “in angry terms” for the collapse of Assad’s regime and the loss of Iranian influence in the region.

“The atmosphere is like something between almost punching each other, punching the walls, yelling at each other and kicking rubbish bins. They are blaming each other, and no one is taking responsibility,” one official from Tehran told The Telegraph.
Iran spent billions of dollars propping up Assad’s regime after intervening in the Syrian civil war in the mid-2010s. The thing with Iran is that they like to sacrifice others and not fight themselves.
As some quote Iran general saying," We will fight till the last Arab"
As a result,
A, Turkey will try to take the leadership as main leader with Egypt eyeing the developments.
B, IAEA claims Iran dramatically accelerating uranium enrichment
""Today the agency is announcing that the production capacity is increasing dramatically of the 60% inventory," Reuters quoted Grossi who was speaking on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain.

He claimed that Iran's production capacity was set to rise to seven, eight times more, maybe, or even more than the current level of 5-7 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity a month.

Reuters also claimed to have seen a confidential report to IAEA member states, which said Iran had increased enriching uranium to up to 60% at its Natanz and Fordow sites.

The report claimed that Iran had increased the enrichment rate of the material to feed them into two interconnected cascades of advanced IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow.
"

 

It definitely tickles my fancy to see Iran going through their angry consternations and turmoil. It's definitely a disappointment for those terrible Iranian government officials. I just hope someday that the Iranian people have their own rebellion and cleanse out the religious zealots ruling their country.

I'm sure similar disappointment is being expressed in the Russian government.