has "online" peaked? https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/article/2019/01/09/are-we-seeing-early-signs-saturation-online-academic-programs
I think we've reached a saturation point of higher ed, period. We have too damn many schools. Many of them really only ever enjoyed geographic convenience. Now they're online so they have a greater reach. And people might have considered them for the novelty of having a unique degree and occupying a niche space when they entered. But we're also at a point where there are many more competitors. Objectively, what is the difference between the PhD in Leadership at Johnson University versus University of the Cumberlands versus any number of other small, largely unheard of Christian schools now offering the same degree? Online learning just pushed off the inevitable reckoning of there being too many small schools which only exist because they receive federal funds.
Also, it has been pointed out elsewhere, that ease of access has resulted, in part, in degree inflation and so the question becomes not just "What is the difference between a Leadership PhD from school A and one from school B?" but also "What is the value of the degree, regardless of which school it comes from?" Is a PhD worth the money, time, effort, opportunity cost? In short, what's the ROI for these semi-generic degrees from lower tier schools. You can buy that inexpensive car but will it actually get you to your destination? Now everyone (including me) talks about "personal enrichment" degrees but I believe that somewhere inside that enrichment is a not so secret hope that the degree will get you something beyond a warm glow of satisfaction. But will it? Maybe not all by itself.
The doom and gloom continues with traditional sources, after one such study, predicting the decline of online learning. Note that this is the first such minor decline since Mr. Gore invented his Internet. What is important in my view, which probably means little to anyone but me, is that online is no longer new. It is not the panacea for significant growth for traditional colleges and universities it may have been perceived by some previously. It is now expected, and those who do not have such a delievery mechanism are missing out. It is a tool by which progressive institutions of all type deliver education, and institutions that do not offer online learning are missing that market completely. At some point, all of higher ed will be saturated, and we may be at that point, but there is still significant market there.
