Projections for the 2022 Midterms

Here are the projections for the 2022 midterms

House: 250 Republicans to 185 Democrats
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/house/elections-map.html

Senate: 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

Governors: 31 Republicans to 19 Democrats
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

If the polls show a left-leaning bias as they did in 2016 and 2020, then these projections are the best-case scenario.

Are there any races you are following?

 

I would tend to go with FiveThirtyEight instead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

 

Senate:
It appears to me that there’s a lot of seats on a 50-50 coin toss, speacially the four, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Momentum appears to be is in the favor of Republicans in Arizona, Georgia and in Pennsylvania.
I think Nevada is going to Dem's.
Libertarian voters that would otherwise vote Republican and could swing the outcome in the Senate in Dem favor as well.
NY - Senator Chuck Schumer will get fifth term in the U.S. Senate, he leads his Rep challenger Joe Pinion 54 - 42 percent.

NY State Governor race:
Hochul Holds Slight Edge Over Zeldin.
While Zeldin is trailing still has a chance in NY state race.
There was event not to far from were I used to work were many South East Asian business owners who were Democrat donors, endorsed Zeldin.
And they’re putting signs in 300 gas stations across the state of New York. It appears there are demographic changes with voting patterns among Asians, Southeast Asians, Orthodox Jews and Hispanics. So maybe?

 

The betting markets tend to be the best predictor of future events.

So if we look at the markets, they are predicting approximately 66% for Republicans to win Senate seats in:
Arizona
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Georgia

Big Stories

1. Oregon looks like it's going to have a Republican governor (58% chance Republican to win)

2. New Hampshire is in play as the Republican candidate is now trailing by only a few points. (35% chance Republican to win)

3. New York is a closer-than-expected race though Hochul is still expected to win. (25% chance Republican to win)

What is hurting Hochul is the bad optics on the COVID vaccine mandate and her record on crime, allowing woke DA's to do whatever they want by not putting criminals in jail.

Longshot upsets are possible in Washington and Colorado for Senate seats. (18% and 12%, respectively)

The polls from the last two elections were off by as much as 7% so anything close is in play.

 

So, I see that making fun of other people's health issues is now a GOP mainstream. Such a lovely bunch, totally worthy of running the country, amiright?

 

Apparently a despicable lie that Mr. Pelosi's attacker was an estranged boyfriend of his is running rampant on social media in Republican circles.

 

Republicans, Conservatives including main stream right media condemn an attack on Nancy Pelosi household, on her husband.
This was not a random act. This was intentional. And it's wrong.

Any usage of this horrific act to score political points is wrong.
Unfortunately there are some exceptions who sadly abuse this attack.

 

I give Sloth credit. At least he had the balls to debate, unlike Arizona Democrat governor candidate Katie Hobbs who is too scared to do any debates.

Katie Hobbs, a twice-convicted racist, probably isn't what voters want anyway, so maybe she should just quit before the election. She is going to lose anyway.

 

I find it difficult to believe but, it seems, LevelUP, that you're using a political commercial to try to prove true that Katie Hobbs is actually a "twice-convicted racist"? All I can do is shake my head in disbelief, I hope that I've just misunderstood?

 

Kari Lake is an election denying nut job. The fact that this is what the GOP actively normalizes and the voters still might put it on top blows my mind.

 

GOP is running on issues, such as inflation, crime, etc.. In my opinion.
The issues you mention are not discussed much among voters. People are conserned with more pressing issues from cost of living to crime, abortion (pro and con) and other issues.

 

Not much evidence for your opinion, seeing how Ms. Lake over there and many like her are, again, a bunch of election denying whack jobs. You see, neglecting democracy preservation in favor of "more pressing issues" is self-defeating. The only reason the government will care about anything most of us care about is they do not want to be voted out. You know this as someone who lived under a system where those on top were not in any danger of being voted out. This is why seeing how, eg., Greg Abbott clearly prioritizing идеологическая работа (ideology work) over, you know, the electric grid? gives me chills. This is how they caused and then tried to hide Chornobyl disaster.

Pressing issue: the Republicans are openly scheming to use their presumed new majority in the House to gain right to gut Social Security. This is, literally, the only concrete economic idea they have. Yet the voters who rely on Medicare to, you know, not hunger to death in their old age are about to vore in the GOP so they can "handle the economy better". The media and public schools (in ruins after the "parental choice" crowd weakened them for decades) are failing us.

 

Social Security will raise the pay in 2023 by some 8+ %.

Every elections since I'm in this country the GOP is being demonized that they will cut/gut SS. Its a well known accusation from Democrats "a typical red herring."
Some in GOP proposed plan is strengthening, and shoring up Medicare and Social Security, which they say are both headed for bankruptcy if we do nothing.
I think they are right about Social Security’s financial status if nothing changes.
There’s about $2.9 trillion in the program’s combined trust funds. Without some intervention, those reserves will run out by 2034.
Without additional funds, it could afford to pay only between 70% and 80% of the benefits people expected.

Politifact:
There are a number of Democratic proposals to shore up Social Security. President Joe Biden floated a plan during the 2020 election that lifted a million seniors out of poverty, funded by a tax hike on households making over $400,000 a year. The Democratic options vary, but all have been more generous than what the GOP has offered. The question now is, what do the Republicans have in mind?

In June, the House Republican Study Committee produced its own Social Security reform plan. It largely made no changes for current or near-retirees. But people retiring after 2030 would see a change in their monthly checks. The plan would offer a more generous minimum benefit than current rules do. It would do the most for people who have worked 40 years and were making about $47,000 or less at retirement.

Overall, lower-income workers would see their benefits rise faster than higher-income recipients.
The plan also would raise the age at which people could claim their maximum payment from 67 today to 70 in 2040. People who opted to start receiving benefits before that age could continue to work and not face a temporary reduction in their monthly checks as they do now.

The architects of the plan included no tax increases and called for Congress to allow workers and employers to put money into private retirement funds rather than the Social Security trust funds.

The Republican Study Committee plan has not been endorsed as party doctrine. You won’t find it, for example, in the House Republicans’ Commitment to America, a broad set of principles and policy goals."

 

Right. Good old "privatize Social Security" ploy.

The near-term plan is simpler: make Social Security into discretionary spending. What says "security" more than "let Congress vote on it every 5 years"?

 

Real Clear Politics is now predicting that Republicans are favored to pick up the senate seat in New Hampshire.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

Considering that there are 54 states in the U.S., that means that Republicans will now equal the Democrats in senate seats!!!

I guess the two sides will have to work together now.