Oy! Trump might NOT be toast!

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by nosborne48, Oct 20, 2024.

Loading...
  1. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    ABC 538 now says Trump has a very slightly better chance of winning the Electoral College than Harris has.

    Still basically 50/50.

    How is this even POSSIBLE?
     
  2. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Some say there is a significant Trump headen voters and GOP is counting on that. This is something that occurred in past two elections.
    Also on economy, people think Trump will do better.
    I can be wrong.
     
  3. sanantone

    sanantone Well-Known Member

    I'm not sure how trustworthy the polling averages are. In 2022, Republicans released a bunch of Republican biased polls at the last minute resulting in the prediction of a red wave. Republicans ended up winning far fewer seats than predicted. This year, it could be a tactic to make it seem like Trump is the leader going into election day. So, if he loses, they can more easily claim that Democrats cheated.
     
  4. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    I will cling to your observation like a rat from the Titanic.
     
  5. Acolyte

    Acolyte Well-Known Member

    I don't think it's anywhere close to 50/50 except in certain states - the problem I have with the 50/50 "narrative" is that if Trump loses by a substantial margin, it will make it easier for him to claim cheating and "rigged elections" because the margin of his loss will be significant, which doesn't line up with the 50/50 polling narrative at all. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, and in 2020, it's clear that a majority of Americans do NOT want him as a president - it makes sense that he should lose the popular vote again in 2024, the question will be more about how that lines up with electoral votes. There have been two elections in the past 20 years where the popular vote and the electoral vote have not lined up (this should be a relative RARE occurrence!) - and this has IMO undermined the collective will of the American people. I fear we are about to learn a lot more about "faithless electors" and all sorts of electoral anomalies - and I fear there will be widespread , but not catastrophic violence in the days following the election. :-(
     
  6. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    There's no doubt that Harris will win at least a few million more votes than Trump, that is 2 or 3 million more votes. My vote in California is worth only about 1/3 of the vote of someone in a small red state like Wyoming. That's just the way the electoral college works. If the electoral college count is close a very messy situation as you describe is very possible.

    Getting rid of the electoral college would be extremely difficult. If Trump gets back into the Oval office then he may get rid of the constitution and then maybe we write a new constitution in 10 or 20 years. Perhaps we can get a real democracy then. Otherwise the easiest way to prop up the democracy would be to give statehood to the likes of Washington DC and Puerto Rico.
     
  7. Suss

    Suss Active Member

    If trump gets back in the oval office I predict a civil war.
     
  8. sanantone

    sanantone Well-Known Member

    Trump lost the popular vote twice, and Republicans are forcing him on us a third time. This is crazy.
     
  9. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    The electoral college is what counts, and until it's the law of the land, it's how in the US we elect President etc.
    In 2020 President Biden and Dems got elected via electoral college.
    The dilemma of GOP voters is the issues that they believe are at the heart of the nation vs a candidate who can deliver.
    People I talk to are not necessary happy with the candidate's way of talking and way of expression, but they are convinced in Trumps ability to address the issues better than Dems.
    Economy, Immigration, Security, Pro-life vs Reproductive rights, and what many perceive a Dems Marxist agenda are what is being considered by the voters.
    The divide is deepening, but the civil unrest and God forbid war, is exactly what our enemies are working on.
    From Putin, to China, N Korea and Iran, and others, they wish and contribute, plot a civil turmoil that will paralyze the country.
    An effort need to be made that we to go that path.
    Trump already was a President, and people can have an Idea of what to expect. They watched years of what was perceived as a witch hunt.
    So now almost immune to all the barrage of attacks on Trump, justified or not.
    On a large family gathering, I conducted a pole, and Harris got 78%.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2024
  10. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Yup. Even worse, this crazy system was deliberately designed to make such a result possible.
     
  11. sanantone

    sanantone Well-Known Member

    According to Steven Bannon in October 2020, Trump is going to go crazy during his second term because he'll be term limited. He won't have to worry about another election.

    Regardless of how the idiotic electoral college works, the fact is that the majority of Americans did not want Trump as president - twice. Republicans keep running unpopular candidates with Trump being the worst. Decades of the Southern Strategy is backfiring to the point that Cancruz is afraid that he will lose in Texas.
     
  12. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    We have a Constitution!
    And at this time, majority popular vote has no say in electing President. The electoral college, some call it genius and a gift from the founders of our country others for a long time now say it's old and no longer works, need to be changed or modified, some call for complete removal.
    Until this is the law of the land we are to follow it, and as in Democracy, there can be effort to change the elections' system in the future.

    The whole country is in extreme state, since I read posts about possible civil unrest in the country I'm afraid for the safety of the whole academic community as well.

    Anti-Israel and at times US the US campus groups radicalize in front of our eyes, with no one to stop them, experts warn.
    Former security officials say increasingly violent rhetoric mimics that of 1960s students who pivoted to domestic terror.
    It’s going unhindered as students point to First Amendment.





     
  13. sanantone

    sanantone Well-Known Member

    More low IQ, mentally unstable Trump supporters have threatened FEMA workers. We even have law enforcement leaders threatening Harris supporters. Not to mention the three right wing crazies who threatened Trump's life. As a government employee, most of our threats have come from right wingers. A right winger once threatened to shoot me, and some have pointed guns at my coworkers.

    As a part-time academic, I'm not concerned about university protesters. As a Black person, I'm more concerned about the white supremacist wackos who think that Haitians are eating cats and dogs. They can't and don't care to distinguish between various Black ethnic groups.
     
  14. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Every coin has two sides.
    I will not insult Dems voters and not going to predict their IQ levels, but I can assure you that there are High IQ, hardworking Americans that will vote for Trump and are arming themselves but not because of elections, but because of lawlessness and sharp rise in crime and assaults.
    They don't trust the artificial reports, they know from what is happening in NY, CA, CO and other states.
    So the arming is for self-defense because in some cities alegebly anti-police officials and maybe as they accuse some "progressive" DA's are undermining the security of the people. Not enough resources to protect the residents.

    I only small one voice, call for civil, and peaceful elections.
    As we all know, when I go to hospital or call police, I don't check if the guy who is helping me a Republican, Independent or Democrat.
    Our unity in US has to persevere the polarization that increases during the elections time.

    But there are crazies on all the wide range of political spectrum.
     
  15. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Too be fair, I really don't think that sanantone was insulting Republicans in general. She did not say that all Republicans were low IQ mentally unstable. Or even that Trump supporters were all low IQ , mentally unstable. She was simply specifying the group that she was insulting which was the "low IQ, mentally unstable Trump supporters". This is a much more note worthy group than on the Democratic side because Harris is not telling the low IQ mentally unstable Democrats to commit crimes like Trump is doing on his side.
     
    Suss and sanantone like this.
  16. sanantone

    sanantone Well-Known Member

    There are definitely high IQ Republicans, such as Mitt Romney. I believe Vance is intelligent; he's just a Christian extremist who abandoned his values to further his political career. But the idiots who believe the FEMA conspiracy theories are, indeed, idiots. Trump said that he loves the uneducated! That's why he's winning the uneducated vote.
     
  17. sanantone

    sanantone Well-Known Member

    Because my coworkers and I have been threatened by armed, far right extremists, I have increased my security. Government workers have always had issues here and there with anti-government extremists, but the problem got so bad recently, my employer had to change its safety policy for field employees. This was before Hurricane Helene. The field employees had been freely working in the field alone for three or four decades. Now, they have to go with a partner and take other precautions before going out. This has resulted in them being mostly in the office.
     
  18. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Yes, I understood that, just felt the need to mention what I think that majority of Republicans are not low IQ.
    And call for unity and not fall in to the agitators doings, there are agitators, hostiles, people who hate the US, and for hire operatives here in the US trying to split our society, breake our spirit, take advantage of our political struggles, and the Democracy we all cherish.
    Crazies, and low IQ people, we also have on all sides of the political spectrum, I hope they are very small #s..
     
  19. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Yes they're on both sides. Yes they're small percentages but that works out to be large numbers across the whole country and like I said, Trump is telling his supporters to commit crimes. That is news worthy and dangerous.
     
  20. sanantone

    sanantone Well-Known Member

    Your posts promote paranoia, distrust, and misinformation i.e. your comments on crime statistics. You also use Islamist and Muslim interchangeably to imply that all Muslims are ideological extremists. When someone said that most of the Hispanics immigrating to the U.S. are not a public safety threat or something to that effect, you posted a random video of Hispanic boys fighting with no context. We didn't know if they were natural born citizens, legal immigrants, or illegal immigrants, but it doesn't really matter. You thought that one video was proof that Hispanic immigrants are dangerous. You even tried to justify the actions of the white supremacist terrorists in the UK.
     

Share This Page