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In any one singular situation? Hard to say.

Since I'm certified in HR (I'm an SPHR) and have worked in HRD for 40 years (with and around HR, and sometimes within), and did a pretty thorough dissertation on this subject (including 276 participants in an experiment regarding checking degrees) for my PhD, I'm pretty confident overall.

 

You stated that your research is two decades old. DegreeVerify is an online service. A lot of organizations were not utilizing online services 20 years ago as much as they do now. But my question was not what percentage of HR departments use DegreeVerify. My question was how would you know that someone checked. You can't accurately state that no one checked when you don't have to be notified that they checked. My point is that you're gambling when you lie about having a degree. Just because SHRM doesn't cover this doesn't mean that no company out there has adopted a degree verification policy. There are, indeed, employers that use DegreeVerify or directly contact colleges. They couldn't care less that SHRM doesn't tell HR professionals to verify education.

 

Back in 2004, SHRM found that 34% of employers verify education credentials. A 2022 survey of 1,250 senior management professionals found that 57% of employers verify education credentials.

https://news.elearninginside.com/intelligent-com-survey-reveals-nearly-half-of-employers-rarely-or-never-check-job-candidates-education-credentials/

 

Back in 2017, a survey of 4,000 employers found that 49% of employers verify education. However, only 15% verified the international backgrounds of U.S.-based employees. 13% verified the backgrounds of employees based outside the U.S.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170419005191/en/10th-Annual-HireRight-Benchmark-Survey-Finds-48-Percent-of-Employers-Do-Not-Rescreen-Employees-Despite-Prevalence-of-Organizational-Risk