Is it really that bad out there?

Hey guys, just trying to get some different perspectives of the current job market brought on by the global economic recession. I know there are skill sets that continue to be in demand, such as IT security skills in the NorVA / DC area, but for those with fairly common skill sets, is it really as bad as the doom-and-gloom media is painting it out to be? I mean, if I were to say, quit my job as a sys admin today and move somewhere like Houston, would it really take me 8 months and being chosen over 300 other candidates to get a job at McDonalds making $7 an hour?

I understand employers are more picky and for some industries it's worse than others. For example, if you're a HS dropout working in contruction and are trying to find a job in Vegas, it really sucks right now. If you're 1 of 3 people in the world who can program in a new language geared towards mobile devices, you're golden. But what about those of us in the middle?

 

I read an article yesterday that explained you have a statistical better chance of being accepted to a spot for enrollment in an Ivy League school than getting hired. There are more people interested in each open job than for each spot at at an Ivy League school, making it harder to get hired for any job than to get into an Ivy League school. I think it is 5 people for every job, that are fully qualified, and want the same job as you, and are equally qualified, so - it is difficult, but if you have good skills and can do the work, you have as good of a chance as the other 4 people who are as qualified as you and are also applying for the job, sans - anyone with connections or an in at the same job you are also applying for. There are also people who could be considered overqualified applying for that same job also.

 

Check this out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

 

It's pretty rough out there. I quit my job in Feb. due to health reasons, and it took me two months to find a stable job (I did a brief stint at a car dealer in the interim; it did not go well.). That's not too bad, but my job now pays about 25% less with worse benefits.

 

Thanks for the feedback everyone. I swear, you read different message boards, even regional ones, and the feedback is vastly different. From 1 person exhausting 99 weeks of unemployment benefits to another jumping between jobs like we've got more jobs than people to fill them, it's hard to gauge what's really occurring. I would hope that someone such as myself who has always lived a frugal lifestyle and saved money outside of investing in education would be better able to handle this situation, but I have to admit, going from the 50k+ job I've got now to one making minimum wage would severely cramp my lifestyle. Any other feedback would be highly appreciated.

 

I can't find any recent statistics, and things may have changed, but Fast Food Nation and several early 2000s websites are saying 300-400% turn-over. Even if it has improved to only half that number, fast food joints will still be hiring somebody every few weeks. Despite the pay and more fast food workers being killed than cops some years (admittedly there are more of them).

If you don't wanna work fast food out here in Colorado, and you're a friend of mine, you're pretty much screwed. Maybe I'm a curse

 

Here's my very crude impression of what's happened here in the Silicon Valley area and my speculations about where we might be headed.

We saw quite a few job losses in the last two years, but it wasn't nearly as bad as the dot.com disaster in the early 00's that almost flattened this place. What hurt us the most this time was deflation in home prices, leaving lots of people underwater in huge mortgages. Most of these people appear to be sitting tight in hopes that things rebound, with the biggest forclosure rates in the lowest income communities.

Lots of people took big hits in their retirement investments, but for most people those were just paper losses. Really, all of this is paper losses for most people, as long as they keep their jobs. If they don't, then it's suddenly a disaster. Fear was palpable a year ago and consumer spending went off a cliff as people hoarded cash. But today, most upper-earners seem confident that they will keep their jobs, upscale communities are feeling fine and the overpriced restaurants are filled with expensively dressed diners again.

There have been quite a few private sector layoffs, but seemingly these were mostly lower earners who bosses apparently consider expendible. Modest communities are hurting a lot worse than the upscale communities, which is the way of the world, I guess.

That's the private sector. What makes me concerned that there's another shoe about to drop and that we might be facing a 'double-dip' -- is the public sector. While private employers were downsizing and laying off people over the last couple of years, the public sector kept everybody on and maybe even expanded a little bit. I think that a lot of the so-called 'stimulus' spending really went to prop up public employment. (Thanks for the votes, SEIU. Here's your reward.)

But this year the state and local governments don't have that stimulus cash to prop them up. Everyone's been getting their homes reassessed downwards as property values plummeted 30%. So individual and corporate income taxes are down and property taxes (upon which localities depend) are way down. Capital gains are just sardonic smiles. The state of California is effectively bankrupt and no longer able to assist local government. In fact, it's actually taking money from local governments to address its own budget deficit.

I don't think that people realize how dangerously close to total collapse state and (especially) local governments are out here in California. We are looking at cities eliminating nonessentials like parks and rec departments, teachers being told to take big pay cuts, and in a few cases cities even starting to shut down police and fire services. Massive public employee layoffs loom on the horizon. These are all union workers and there's going to be strikes and disruptions. Special interests are going to be going to war to protect their slices of the pie. I think that the brown anal-extrusions have just about reached the fan blades...

The private sector has taken its hit and downsized, now the public sector is potentially facing the same thing on probably an even bigger scale that it's totally unprepared to handle.

I worry that 'Recession II - Return of Recession' is about to become a big hit nationwide (Hollywood's gift to you). It will be driven this time not by the bloody remnants of the banking system, but by imploding Greece-style local governments that have been over-inflated for many years and can't deflate fast enough now to meet their new and more frugal circumstances.

I gather that California isn't alone in this and that other states face very similar situations. But maybe our expansive hubris and our boom-bust economy has made it worse for us. And for you.

 

Different perspective Bill, and definitely not one you hear being talked about too much by the talking heads. You've really given me something to think about. Thanks Bill.

 

In my area almost all nearby cities has laid off police and firemen. Not to mention all other local govt workers including teachers. Also contracts to outside businesses (such as civil engineering companies) have been reduced also resulting in layoffs.

 

I hear people keep talking about the second wave of the economic recession coming soon. I really wonder if we have already seen the worst or the worst is about to come. Unfortunately if the worst is not yet over, then it could end up in massive job losses and many SMEs shutting down - way more than what we have seen so far. Unfortunately though it would seem that most of the local governments or big corporates haven't really learned anything from the recession. While I hope the worst is over, i wont be surprised if it got even worse.