India’s Population Has Overtaken China’s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/india-s-population-overtakes-china-to-become-world-s-biggest-analysts-estimate A mysterious religious cult leader is taking credit for India's population boom.
This is a gigantic story. I don’t know if it’s true yet but if not it soon will be. India is poised to reap decades of economic benefits from her demographic dividend. China is already feeling the bitter hangover from her growth and prosperity era.
I'm not sure it will be a benefit for anywhere near all Indians. India now has a middle class of 200 million plus, but rural poverty is extreme. 750,000 little villages - poor prospects, hungry people, lacking health care etc. I've read of things like a boy going blind, because his parents couldn't afford $8 for prescribed ointment. There are at least two Indias - and the poorer one is h-u-g-e. Last I looked, half the school-age kids in India weren't in school. Many 11-12 year-olds are far away from home, on labour contracts. Not because their parents don't love or want them - but because they can't feed them. The kids most often send money home so the folks there can eat. They learn trades and hopefully do better in life. Looking at the numbers of South Asian faces around here, I'd say many, many Indians are fed up with their country's inequities, iniquities (corruption) and inequalities - and are coming here and elsewhere in large numbers, to do better for themselves. Many younger folks, whose parents presumably have some money, come to the colleges here on student visas, pay a huge foreign student differential and manage to get jobs and attain permanent residency after graduation. Judging by the few Indian-made manufactured goods I've purchased - and regretted, India is as yet, NOWHERE as a manufacturing nation. These things were AWFUL. I don't know how the country intends to attain sufficiency, let alone prosperity, for all. Just how is this a "demographic dividend" nosborne? I'd call it more of a "logistical liability." Or maybe a nightmare.
All that you say is true but over the last couple of decades India's fertility rate has fallen from about 8 children per woman to close to 2.1, replacement only. There's no reason to think it's done falling. India is entering a time when it will have a multi-decade cohort of productive working age people who have comparatively few children and elderly to support. China grew like crazy at a similar point in its demographic history.
Looking at the signs, many of those people may become India's chief export. But I could be wrong. Many people left Italy in the 50s and early 60s because they could make a decent living here, but not in Italy. There was a popular song there - that got played on Italian-language radio here. Its title translated as "A Little House in Canada." That was a popular version of Paradise. Then things turned around at home - so people stayed in Italy. Life was suddenly way better. But - it'd have to be the biggest turnaround in millennia, for India to experience this. I'd not put money on it.
As to the Middle Kingdom...um. The Chinese government admitted that as of 2022, their population has begun its inevitable decline which is a problem because the population is also therefore aging rapidly. This trend will be exceedingly difficult to moderate let alone reverse.
But there are experts who point out that "Demography is not Destiny." Personally I think it is, more or less, but I am no expert.
People are still (or have been) leaving Italy in droves. You still cannot make a decent living in Italy. Things did turn around a bit in the 70s and 80s, but then that growth eventually reversed. Not as bad as in the 50s and 60s, but it's bad enough that they made a short film about the problem in 2018 or 2019: It's entirely in Italian, but you should be able to get the gist of it even if you don't understand the language. There was also a different popular song in the late 80s or early 90s about people leaving Italy. I don't remember what that one was called, though. It's only in the past year or two that Italy has actually had a good economic situation. Italy happened to be poised exactly right to be able to come out on top. Exactly how, I don't know. I don't see the situation changing any time soon, though. There are a lot of factors, besides GDP, why Italians leave Italy. People are still going to be leaving Italy to go to the rest of the world (mostly Europe) for at least the next 10 or 15 years, IMO.
Grazie per questa buona informazione. Indeed, thanks, Rachel. And I do have a bit of Italian. It's come almost by itself over the years, knowing Italian people here. And both my sons married girls from Italian families - smartest thing they ever did, I took a bit in night school, too. I'm sad to see that so many people find they have to leave such a beautiful country. But I understand - you can't eat scenery, history, culture etc. I was brought here from UK for the same reasons, 71 years ago. It must be VERY hard for people to leave all that behind. I hope those who leave find what they're looking for, and that things improve in Italy for those who stay. Buona fortuna a tutti!
Besides, Johann, Canada had, and has, a sense of endless possibilities that I rather think the UK did not. Of course, Canadians and US-ians share a largely common culture that is perhaps a bit freer and more individualistic than anything in Europe. (Apologies to those British Citizens who insist (rightly) that Britain is not Europe!) Anyway I'm doubtless prejudiced against the Old World and in favor of the New.
