Extradition

some people are worried

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/06/09/hong-kong-hundreds-thousands-protest-extradition-bill/1402089001/

 

They should be worried. The Chinese Communist Party, basically a group of thugs, has no intention of allowing Hong Kong to enjoy civil rights for anything like the contracted 50 years.

www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-anniversary-china/china-says-sino-british-joint-declaration-on-hong-kong-no-longer-has-meaning-idUSKBN19L1J1

 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/police-fire-tear-gas-hong-kong-protesters-tensions/story?id=63651958

 

Yes. That's what tyranny really looks like. Not Obamacare; tear gassing peaceful political protests.

 

Some things to note about these Hong Kong protests is --

If enacted, this new extradition law would effectively gut the rule of law in Hong Kong, by allowing Beijing to move trials of Hong Kong residents (citizen or foreign) and even visiting tourists, to mainland courts and the "justice" system that prevails there.

They are big. As many as 1/3 of Hong Kong's population are estimated to have participated in them.

They come on the 30th anniversary of the Tienanmen massacre. We can be sure that the CCP in Beijing is acutely aware of that. They perceive any pro-democracy movements as anti-CCP and are deathly afraid of them spreading around the country.

The current Chinese leadership is currently under pressure and has lots on its plate. There's the current trade crisis with the United States which threatens the entire 'business model' for China's supposedly-inexorable rise. There are lots of potential challengers who might make moves to replace President Xi. So Xi probably feels pressure to act dynamically so as to appear strong.

Rumors are that the Hong Kong Garrison has been alerted to be ready to take to the streets. The Hong Kong Garrison are several thousand PLA soldiers stationed in Hong Kong who keep a very low profile and aren't allowed off base in uniform. In addition, the entire Southern Theater Command of the PLA (so the rumors have it) has been alerted for possible action. So tanks are apt to roll and another Tiananmen massacre is a very real possibility.

If the PLA occupies Hong Kong and especially if it starts killing civilians, news will travel around the world instantly. Where Beijing in 1989 had few Western journalists, who could be silenced and expelled quickly, Hong Kong is swarming with media and foreign expatriots and it will be much harder for the CCP to prevent word from getting out, complete with graphic videos.

A Hong Kong military occupation and massacre will lead to a wholesale exodus of businessmen. Foreigners certainly and probably any local Hong Kong business people who can escape the PLA. The wealthier among them have already squirreled away huge assets here in the United States for just such a day.

Hong Kong essentially serves as China's USB port into the world financial system. Hong Kong violence would totally disrupt that.

Events like this would have a huge impact in Taiwan. China is currently trying to use a carrot-and-stick policy with Taiwan, promising them how wonderful it will be for Taiwan to become another Chinese province and promising Taiwan that there's nothing to be afraid of, the 'one nation, two systems' malarkey that Hong Kong was promised in 1997 will protect them. Except, if Hong Kong is occupied and massacres take place... Which just leaves the stick, Beijing's often repeated invasion threats.

In hopes of defusing the crisis, the Administrator of Hong Kong (almost certainly with Beijing's approval) has tried to placate the demonstrators by promising to suspend enacting the extradition law and instead seek more public input before doing so. But the demonstrators are having none of it saying that enacting the law must not be merely 'suspended' but taken off the table entirely. Reportedly the demonstrations are continuing this weekend.

 

It may also be worth noting that this is happening within a larger context of certain countries setting the precedent of simply annexing others' territory. Most notable was Putin's land grab in the Ukraine. The lack of a consistent response to such behavior is likely to embolden China.

 

The line between tyranny and living in a civilized society is a bit blurrier than some people wish to acknowledge. I may want to go into the bank vault. If I try, I will be prevented by force.

I would also be prevented by force from building an unsafe structure in my yard. I can most definitely be prevented by force from selling a dangerous substance and calling it medicine.

We lived with freedom to that degree before. It resulted in people's jaws falling off.

If you are a felon and you attempt to exercise your second amendments rights, you will be stopped. You will be forcibly deprived of your freedom and property.

There are many instances where the government uses force to prevent you from doing whatever you want to do. Of course, the line between libertarian and anarchy can itself get a bit hazy.

 

The People's "Liberation" Army's Hong Kong garrison posted this to twitter yesterday:

https://twitter.com/Echinanews/status/1156827062230867968

It's pretty obviously a warning.

What's more, troops have been reported gathering near Hong Kong's border. Last I heard it wasn't clear if they are regular army or some kind of paramilitary riot police. I assume that they wanted to be seen and are another bit of warning that in Beijing's view Hong Kong's time is up.

Another Tiananmen bloodbath may be coming.

 

Despite the number of Chinese students in the US, Australia is the top destination for Chinese students abroad. The protests have spilled over onto Australian university campuses

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/04/we-cannot-be-seen-the-fallout-from-the-university-of-queenslands-hong-kong-protests

 

The last couple of days demonstrators have successfully shut down Hong Kong's airport. That's exceedingly provocative and riot police are battling them today.

Meanwhile the Chinese "People's Liberation Army" is preparing for action in Shenzen on Hong Kong's border.

The demonstrators seem to have support from much of the population of Hong Kong, their demands have moved on from the extradition bill to democracy itself, and Beijing and the communist party aren't going to grant it and compromise on their own absolute hegemony.

So I don't think that this is going to end well.

Photos and videos from Shenzen here:

https://twitter.com/AlexandreKrausz/status/1160947525442056193

 

The extradition bill is as good as dead but if the Minister would resign things might calm down.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3021996/hong-kongs-concept-ministerial-accountability-dead-extradition-bill

 

Yes, it's growing way beyond the original issue.

 

The extradition bill is withdrawn but it's unlikely to make a difference at this point

https://www.foxnews.com/world/hong-kong-carrie-lam-beijing-china-extradition-bill

 

This is a landmark development in this dispute

https://www.wsj.com/articles/mainland-chinese-soldiers-take-to-hong-kong-streets-for-first-time-since-protests-began-11573907250

 

I am afraid you're right. I have to say though that it was bound to happen. Beijing is not about to back down. I expect that we will soon see some action that looks like out-takes from Red Dawn.