East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Japan started it?

Oh, yes. No doubt.

I am not defending the actions of Imperial Japan.

But who fires the first shot as "starting" a war matters more to Americans than it does to the Japanese. Or at least it DID until Iraq came along.

 

I think that the United States is superior in the air and on the sea. Man for man and tank for tank, it probably has similar conventional warfighting superiority over the Chinese on land.

The problem is that our army has been downsized so much since the end of the Cold War, to say nothing of the demands that Iraq and Afghanistan place on it, that the numerical disparity would be too great to overcome.

If we got into a conventional land war on Chinese territory, I can imagine US armored columns ripping through the Chinese. But then what? The US Army would be extended many hundreds of miles deep into China with its flanks exposed. We might be trying to occupy and pacify large populations and major cities. I see us bogging down much as the Japanese did in World War II.

The US would be stupid to be lured into a conventional land war on Chinese territory. That isn't likely to happen.

What IS more likely to happen is China finally acting on their often repeated threats of war against Taiwan, with the US and China finding themselves fighting over that.

In that case, if land war erupted, it would be the Chinese trying to mount an amphibious invasion across the Taiwan straits. The land fighting would take place in Taiwan, with Taiwanese forces, backed up by the US, attempting to defeat the Chinese beachhead. I don't think that the Chinese currently have the capability to successfully invade Taiwan.

So what's more likely is a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan. Chinese submarines and aircraft would target shipping and air traffic going into and out of Taiwan in hopes of crippling the island's economy and forcing it to bend its knee to Beijing hegemony. The Chinese might lob a few hundred conventional high-explosive guided missiles into Taipei as well.

So the US would find itself running convoys into and out of Taiwan, doing ASW against Chinese subs, and probably doing non-nuclear air and missile strikes against the mainland to suppress air, naval and missile threats in the theatre.

And things could very easily escalate from there. The Chinese might strike to suppress our forward bases in the Pacific, hitting Guam and maybe even Pearl Harbor. We might try to blockade their vital oil imports.

But whatever happens, I don't see the US in a conventional land war on PRC territory.

 

Who knows?

Maybe. Maybe not.

I think it equally likely, though, that when the Bejing thugs turn their dogs loose on Taiwan, we will wring our hands and send a STIFF note of protest.

Why?

The China of the thugs represents an enormous, profitable market for the U.S. Plus, the thugs hold LOTS of U.S. debt. The profitable approach would be to keep out of the way of what is, after all, the resolution of the "one China" issue. And the thugs doing the resolving constitute the U.S. recognized government of China!

On the other hand, there's not much "in it" for the U.S. to defend Taiwan. The most we could hope to do would be to preserve the island's unrecognized independence; we certainly wouldn't undertake an invasion of the mainland nor would we be likely to exchange nuclear missiles when no vital U.S. interest is really at stake.

Soooo, to give ourselves a moral "fig leaf", we'll protest. But that's about all, I'd guess.

 

Doubletalk on Taiwan

Here is a link to an important State Department statement concerning the U.S. "commitment", such as it is, to Taiwan:

www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2004/31649.htm

It's a very good example of saying a lot and promising nothing.

 

Re: Re: East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

I think he has a point. The West cannot produce soldiers that are as dehumanized and desentized as dictatorships can. Conrad dealt with it. Coppola, too. This is how Coppola himself put it:

 

Re: War Prayer

I thought of a Private Story of a Campaign that Failed also by Twain.

 

Slightly off topic, but interesting nevertheless...

Our policy toward Taiwan is in clear conflict with our often-expressed insistance that there is "one China" and our giving de jure recognition to the criminal regime in Bejing as the legitimate government of that "one China".

Selling arms to the de facto government of what the recognized Chinese government terms "a renegade province" is actually an act of war. It is also, as the thugs put it, an unwarranted and unacceptable intereference in the internal affairs of China, also a violation of international law and the UN Charter.

Until now, the thugs haven't felt strong enough to put our feet to the fire. That's changing. I predict that they will, by some overt action, slam the ball into our court within the next five years.

 

When it comes to the issue of a land war in Asia, if I was President Putin, I would be very concerned about my Siberian border with China. There is also not a great deal of love lost between India and China over some of the mountainous border regions between them.

 

Ishihara is a nut-case and his opinions are not the same as the Japanese government, much less the rest of east Asia. He has made it very clear he does not like foreigners in Japan. American or otherwise. He is popular in Tokyo though because of his boisterous, in-your-face style, which is very different from the typically quiet, don't say much Japanese politician.

I lived in Tokyo when Ishihara was elected Governor. I remember there was a large scale natural disaster drill going on in preparation for a Kobe-like earthquake that is expected to hit Tokyo on of these days. It was a joint exercise involving Japan's Self Defense Forces and local emergency organizations. At the end of the disaster drill, Ishihara gave a very nationalistic speech saying, "We need to prepare for when the foreigner's invade." Presumably he was referring to China and N.Korea.

The JSDF commander said, "What is this guy going on about? This is a natural disaster exercise, not a military operation. Besides, we don't even work for him."

Meanwhile, while the Governor Ishihara was ranting on about the impending invasion of Japan, a real natural disaster was happening on the island of Miyakejima, a island that is part of Tokyo prefecture. A Pompeii like eruption was happening and the island was calling to be evacuated, but the governor did nothing. Luckily, the wind was blowing the right way and most of the hot pyroclastic flow went out to see, and not on the people. After a week, an evacuation was finally ordered. When asked by reporters why he didn't act sooner, his response was, "It's only 3500 people."

 

Agreed.

Agreed.

 

Googled Mr. Ishihara

Does have his opinions all right:


Governor sparks Tokyo race row

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,3985413,00.html

"After the Los Angeles quake, it was ethnic minorities, including blacks and Hispanics, who went looting. The same thing would happen here," he said. "Although some Japanese might take part in riots, the strongest fear is about areas with high levels of illegal immigrants."

 

Re: Re: Re: East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

God is on the side of him who has the biggest armies.

 

Re: Re: Re: Re: East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

I'm not religious but "How many divisions does the Pope have?" was not Stalin's best dismissive comment. If, that is, he did so ask.

 

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

I thought the "God is on the side of him who has the biggest armies" was Napoleon's quote.

 

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Or the biggest steppes and biggest winter.

 

Perhaps you should define "knowledgable military people"