Dang! I missed it!

If the GOP Base does begin to see the light, Pence is their best choice. That being so, Pence needs to start saying unpopular things.

 

And isn't that interesting? Trump's endless lies and frauds help Biden stay in office.

 

Yes as well as to get into office in the first place. Trump is really good at activating the Republican base. Perhaps one of the few things he does even better is to activate the Democrat base.

 

Manchin is concerned with profits for fossil fuel corporations, reducing regulation, "competitiveness" (read: lower corporate taxes) and the risk that mothers will use child tax credit for drugs. These are typical Republican positions. Unlike modern GOP, he doesn't want to torch the government, acknowledges reality, and is open to solving problems through legislation. He is precisely the type of a progressive Republican that used to make bipartisanship possible not so long ago. And yeah, treating him better by the Bernie faction could have helped to achieve more, and it's not like you could elect a real Dem in WV. Even absent that, he did vote for some substantial bargains.

Sinema ran as a Progressive and sharply changed positions. That Humpty Dumpty wasn't pushed, she jumped.

 

But if you win your supporters could cheer "Foer-more-years"

 

Sinema ran as a progressive and then did a hard-right turn immediately after getting into office. Her supporters feel rightfully betrayed. Manchin though, he's been as transparent and genuine as Bernie Sanders has in his beliefs. Never tried to hide his conservatism or centrism or whatever you want to call it. I don't care for him, but nobody can say they've been sold a false bargain in West Virginia.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nikki-haley-mike-pence-rise-140000545.html

Nikki Haley and Mike Pence Rise in the Polls Without Spending Too Much
Hadriana Lowenkron and Laura Davison


"These Republican presidential candidates running low-budget campaigns are climbing in the polls, at the same time that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis — the candidate whose operation started with the most money — is seeing his support fade away.
After noteworthy performances at the August debate, former South Carolina governor Haley is polling at 6.1% and former Vice President Pence at 4.9%, according to RealClearPolitics averages. Haley is even beating President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday."

 

Democrat though I am, that's good news.

 

I think the current polling in my opinion show that voters are looking for alternatives in GOP nominees.
Also both parties engage in what appears as "process as a part of punishment" tactics where trials, and talking about impeachments and other tricks are used.
Just like the speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has announced an impeachment inquiry into President Biden’s “culture of corruption.” that may not be a good move for GOP but if
it gets enough publicity damage can be done, that includes GOP as well. Is it the right move for GOP and how will it impact the elections I don't know.
And we know Trump trial will begin in the near future.

 

Regrettably that's true. Not new either.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/utah-gop-sen-mitt-romney-175517614.html

Utah Republican Sen. Mitt Romney said Wednesday that he will not run for reelection, ending a storied two-decade political career that included the 2012 Republican GOP nomination for president and a term as Massachusetts governor.

Romney, 76, said the country's many challenges call for a younger generation of leaders. He said the U.S. would be better served if the two front-runners for their parties' 2024 presidential nominations — Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump — stepped aside. Biden is 80 and Trump is 77.

 

Instead of age, let's use a different standard. Everyone who has tried to overthrow the government steps aside.

 

Biden: 80
Trump: 168

(It's an addition problem.)

 

Mitt Romney is one of the few sane Republican politicians that is willing to stand up for what he believes in. He was a Bishop in the Mormon church. I'll not hold that him against him.

 

Nikki Haley surges ahead of Ron DeSantis in SC poll

Haley, who had been lagging behind in polls since February, has started to see polls tick in her favor. She was in second place after Trump with 18% of the votes in the SC primary poll. Meanwhile, Scott was at 10% and DeSantis, who has substantial support in the Upstate in South Carolina, was at 9%.

 

Polling at this point is irrelevant. This from a guy who is a fan of polling.

It's not just that it's too early. The polling results are inaccurate because people are fuzzy at this point regarding what they'll do next year. Most people don't even have plans for dinner tonight, much less how they'll vote months (primaries) or more than a year (general) from now.

Better are qualitative descriptions of what's happening. DeSantis being the kid no one likes. Haley sounding almost human. Hutchinson and Christie telling the truth. And Trump being processed by the criminal justice system.

Same on the other side. Using polling data to predict Biden's electoral doom is absurd.

It's not the polling methodology that makes them inaccurate. GIGO.

 

But horse races sell papers!

Biden will likely be the nominee mostly because no credible challenger has emerged. That's common with an incumbent seeking reelection.

On the GOP side I think all bets are off. Trump remains very popular with his Base but there are a lot of Republican voters who just wish he would go away. He might go away to prison or exile or even just disqualification. Even if he doesn't, the non MAGAs might make up their minds to actually win this time. Trump is a loser and any Republican with the sense of a (dead) mayfly knows it.