Civil War

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by Kizmet, Oct 4, 2017.

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  1. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator

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  2. decimon

    decimon Active Member

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  3. heirophant

    heirophant Member

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    They came pretty close on Sunday, the way the national police shut down polling places and beat up voters.

    Reportedly the Catalan legislature plans to declare Catalonia's independence next Monday. That is if they are allowed to meet. I expect armed forces to occupy their legislative chamber so that they may have to meet in some secret location. I also expect the Madrid government will declare the Catalan regional government disbanded and null-and-void.

    So what happens if they declare independence? They will be under military/police occupation by Spain and no other countries are likely to recognize them. I would guess that we would see a general strike. (Catalonia is responsible for a disproportionate share of Spain's economy.) That might devolve into street violence.

    Spain's the fourth largest Euro-zone country so troubles in Spain will have ripple effects, even up there in haughty Berlin.
     
  4. sanantone

    sanantone Active Member

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    Let me get out the popcorn.
     
  5. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator

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  6. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator

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  7. decimon

    decimon Active Member

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    Slouching towards Barcelona.
     
  8. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator

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  9. Kizmet

    Kizmet Moderator

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  10. heirophant

    heirophant Member

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    The Catalan regional parliament has just voted to declare independence. The vote was 70 for, 10 against and 2 abstentions, in a chamber with 135 members. (The opposition boycotted the vote.) Apparently the prospect of Madrid abolishing the Catalan regional government and assuming direct rule of Catalonia forced their hand.

    Catalan parliament declares independence from Spain - BBC News

    If Madrid declares the Catalan parliament illegal, it will have to meet in secret and those rebel members will have to avoid arrest somehow. Military and national police loyal to Madrid will presumably flood into Catalonia.

    How many elements of the local Catalan administration will remain loyal to Catalonia and how many will side with Spain? How will the local and regional police behave? Will they confront Spanish police and military? Will there be mass demonstrations and civil disobedience? Will the Catalan economy collapse? Will there be Basque style terrorism striking at Madrid and the Spanish leadership?

    Another headache for the rapidly unraveling EU.
     
  11. decimon

    decimon Active Member

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    In the beginning was the Plan.

    And then came the Assumptions.

    And the Assumptions were without form.

    And the Plan was without substance.



    Always have a Plan B.
     
  12. heirophant

    heirophant Member

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    The Spanish parliament in Madrid has imposed direct federal rule on Catalonia and abolished its government, while pro-independence crowds happily gather in Barcelona's streets.

    The US has come out in favor of Spanish unity. (It isn't clear that any foreign country is prepared to recognize Catalonia's independence.) The EU's Donald Tusk say the EU will only deal with Madrid. Tusk also said that he hopes that the 'force of arguments' prevails, as opposed to 'arguments of force'.

    NATO says that this is an internal matter for Spain to sort out.

    The Catalan parliament has called on Catalan government employees not to follow orders from Madrid but rather to practice peaceful 'resistance'.

    Spanish stocks and bonds are selling off. (Though not as much as one might expect.)

    Catalan parliament declares independence as Spanish government imposes direct rule | Fox News

    Catalans declare independence as Madrid imposes direct rule - BBC News

    Catalonia declares independence from Spain, direct Madrid rule looms | Reuters
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 27, 2017

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