Yeah, probably. Next week in New Hampshire will tell. I was slightly surprised DeSantis eked out a victory over Haley though. Glad to be rid of Vivek Ramaswamy. Odious little creep.
The gut twister in the whole GOP primary process is that just about any nominee could (it seems) beat Joe Biden except DJT. So is Trump’s grip on the Right really something we Democrats should wish to see broken?
It appears that many Trump supporters think that no one can tell for sure if DT will lose to JB in 2024, actually they appear energized that DT will be victorious in 2024, and don't know if other nominees can beat JB in 2024.
Trump voters ARE highly motivated. Seeing that motivation in 2020 made me pretty sure Trump would win a second term. As it is, he received the second highest number of total votes of any Presidential candidate in history. Nevertheless, Donald Trump has never, as in NOT EVER, won the popular vote. The reason is simple and telling. He motivates his MAGA Base but he ALSO motivates all those people who value our democratic institutions. Trump is seen to be what he truly is, a dire threat to the country. Joe Biden is unpopular. The thing is, Joe Biden has always been unpopular. He is President today because his name isn't Donald J. Trump. Well guess what? His name STILL isn't Donald J. Trump. Trump has done little to expand his base of support but I think we will find that he has done a good deal to expand Biden's base. Trump absolutely may win but history suggests that he won't.
Iowa is usually a pretty poor predictor of who will be the eventual nominee. This year, instead, Trump has made Iowa irrelevant. And New Hampshire...and South Carolina...
Trump is a very talented natural politician if not a very capable (or engaged) administrator. His success in 2016 was an amazing accomplishment. But one mustn't underestimate crafty old Joe Biden. Biden has run in three Electoral College races in his life so far and he won every time, popular as well as Electoral vote. He's been in the U.S. Senate since some time just after the Secession Winter of 1861. He knows exactly how to win elections despite being personally unpopular while Trump is the gift that keeps on giving in the fearmongering department. Donald Trump is by no means a stupid man but he has odd mental attributes that Biden fully understands how to exploit. Believe me, every gaff, every racist or misogynist remark, every threat of vengeance and claim that the 2020 election was rigged, every promise of authoritarian rule will be repeated to the electorate, usually in recordings of Trump himself saying those things. And little of it will be clearly traceable to the Biden campaign! So that's how I expect it to go. Trump will inevitably make the election about himself since that's all he is capable of doing. Biden will make the election all about Trump thus diverting attention from himself. In that scenario, Trump will probably lose. Fortunately for Biden, he's boring, he knows he is boring, and he is not afraid to capitalize on that fact.
One thing to look for is if Biden refuses to debate Trump. I would refuse if I were Biden. There's nothing to gain and the sight would lend a false air of moral equivalence between the two.
If we're being honest, debates are also not Biden's strong suit. His best approach to them has been to take a page from the George Washington school of warfare: avoid disaster long enough for your opponent to make a fatal mistake.
