Polls Have Improved for Democrats with Harris at the Top of Ticket

As everyone probably knows, the polls have improved for Democrats since Biden stepped down. The election outcome is still definitely within the polls' margin of error. The main thing that makes me a little hopeful is Trump seems to be panicking. Although it's hard to tell how much of that is just Trump being worried because his big lead has apparently evaporated.

What I'm wondering about is the impact to Trump from potential sentencing and details coming out about the indictments that Trump still has outstanding. How hopeful do folks think us Democrats can get? I don't feel nearly as worried now as a month ago but I'm still very reluctant to get very hopeful. My current tendency is to be slightly hopeful since the good trend seems to be continuing and bad news for Trump seems likely over the next few weeks. What do other folks think?

 

I read an opinion piece this morning by Doug Sosnik, who is best known for being a top adviser to Bill Clinton, that discusses this thread topic in detail.

‘A Completely Different Campaign’: How Kamala Harris Reopened the Electoral College Map
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/17/doug-sosnik-q-a-kamala-harris-00174479?cid=apn

Well except he doesn't touch on Trump's legal problems at all. Which perhaps says a lot about how important he feels it is!

 

Yes, very true. Although there is one tangential question. I'm wondering, say Judge Merchan sentenced Trump to a week in jail, for his blatant contempt of court during the proceedings, how likely is it that he would have to serve that time prior to the election? Is that a zero percent probability?

 

The country is not doing well.
I think it got worse for people in the US.
Cost of living, Crime, Aging infrastructure and other pressing issues, internally and abroad.
We need capable leaders.

 

Oh, hard to say. Indirect contempt charges have to be tried and judgments can usually be appealed.

I suspect that what's driving the Harris "honeymoon" is more deeply felt relief than anything else. The electorate has a viable candidate who isn't elderly or crazy. If I'm right, the "honeymoon" won't end until after November.

Trump is toast.

 

The country is doing incredibly well. We’ve recovered from both a devastating pandemic and the economic chaos it created. Wages are rising faster than inflation, and inflation is down where it should be. Millions of jobs were created and the economy grew at an unanticipated rate. The only thing left is illegal migration, and no one has shown why that is actually a problem.

Crime is down. The cost of living increases are normal. Infrastructure is improving because of Biden. The world ALWAYS has “pressing issues.”

We have capable leaders.

 

Thanks for the legal insight. I agree with the honeymoon not ending until November. I'm very hopeful that Trump is Toast but, not as certain. Just call me a worry wart, I guess.

 

I wish it was so.
But the country is not doing well.
Crime is on the rise, in some cities by a lot.
Salaries can't catchup with the rise in cost of living.
Looks like we are talking about different countries.
The rising in delinquencies can force banks and other lenders to lend less money to borrowers ranked riskier or cause lenders to charge even higher interest rates. Who knows if combined effects can influance a broader economic slowdown or even a recession?

 

TSCL estimates Social Security benefits have lost 20% of their purchasing power since 2010 because COLAs have consistently failed to keep pace with inflation.
The accuracy of that figure is debatable, but other evidence supports the idea that benefits have lost purchasing power.

Two-thirds of seniors surveyed by TSCL this year said the 2024 COLA failed to cover the increase in their basic household expenses.
Additionally, 26% of retired workers surveyed by the Employee Benefit Research Institute said they lacked confidence in their ability to finance retirement.
That was the second-worst reading since 2015.
Unfortunately, Social Security's 2025 COLA may once again underestimate inflation, meaning benefits could lose more buying power next year.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/social-security-cost-living-adjustment-060000560.html

Not everything is negative, there is positive, such as low unemployment which is great.
Less than three months before the presidential election, the economy tops lists of voter concerns.
And now we also have an economic plan from Harris.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/harris-unveils-economic-plans-inflation-201223846.html

 

Your feelings on this matter are not really relevant to the facts of the situation. For example, Pew Research Center says that crime is down not up as you falsely claim. Pew Research has VERY HIGH reliability and least biased reporting. The absolute best possible.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/

Our economy is actually doing great one of the best if not the best in the world.

You keep talking about Infrastructure. Biden got a big Infrastructure bill passed a couple years ago without a single Republican vote. New bridges roads etc. are being put up around the country.

The problem obviously is that you are not getting your information from reliable sources. I've been over this with you again and again. I can't bring myself to go over it again right now.

 

Meh. I don't trust modern political polls, but if Trump is freaking out, it's because his internal polling shows that he's lost his lead. The main thing people need to worry about is the margin of error in swing states. Harris will likely win the popular vote because Republicans have only won the popular vote once in the past 30 years with a wartime incumbent. Republicans are sending out 100,000 people to polling locations to intimidate and harass people, so that could affect things in swing states. They were also successful in getting thousands of Michigan votes thrown out in 2016, and they halted the Florida recount in 2000. Disenfranchising voters is the only way they can win.

Harris is not a particularly exciting candidate. You have to be a pretty awful candidate for people to get excited about Harris.

 

Trump got his cult to vote against the border security bill. It was going to pass with bipartisan support, but Trump told Republicans not to vote for it because he needs the immigration issue to win in November. The MAGA cult chose one man over national security. Trump only wants to win badly so he can stay out of prison.

The information about the border bill came from Republican Senator James Lankford. He said that he was threatened for working with Democrats on the border bill and that Trump ruined the deal because he was concerned about the election.

 

Bill, I see what I see, in daily news.
Local and national, also international.
I'm going to the grocery store, driving gasoline car. I remeber how things used to be, the good and not so good.
In my humble mind, I wish things been better on all the issues mentioned before.
We need stronger leaders, policy makers, good economists, statesman/women, to do what is right for the nation. Some in administration work very hard, I admire the current secretary of state Antony John Blinken.
But I'm skeptical if this is what we are getting. Fear we will get mediocre leader that will be closer to radical left.
Hope I'm wrong.
I hopped GOP will have real center concervative candidate.

 

I meant local TV such as ABC, CBS, CW, NBC, Etc, the usual channels that every city has.
I can film all the homeless encampments around here, we didn’t used to have those, drugs, fights, fires and homicides.
I don't recall seing those streets of RVs, tents, and cardboard etc, syringes, stray pets, and police activity.
This was unseen in these parts of town prior to 2020.
Gangs robbing small businesses multiple per street, be it 7/11 or other store.
Home invasions, robberies all on rise.
And major part of the local news channels report about the crime and other hardships of the residents of the city face.
A lot of crime goes underrepresented and don't get in to statistics.

 

"According to the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), more than half of violent crimes and around 70% of property crimes go unreported to the police. In 2022, the BJS found that only 41.5% of violent crimes and 31.8% of household property crimes were reported to authorities."
In 2024 no much changed in reporting % of crimes.

 

Science is a philosophy for building knowledge and learning truth. Lerner is most definitely not a scientist type person.