Hi all, On the reading thread, I talked about the book Superforecasters. (https://www.degreeinfo.com/index.php?threads/so-what-are-you-reading.42566/page-73#post-549769) I recently signed up with Good Judgement Open (GJPO), which is an online platform that duplicates what the original forecasters did, except now it's open to the public. You can make forecasts/predictions, assign them probabilities, provide your rationale and then see if you're right. Examples of new questions (they usually add new ones on Friday) What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021? What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021? Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022? What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021? I decided to answer the Ada cryptocurrency and the California recall election. The people who pose the questions also provide "buckets" for the answers. Some will be "yes" or "no", but most will involve a few options. For example, the Ada cryptocurrency provides 4 options: Less than $0.50 Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive More than $1.00 but less than $2.50 Between $2.50 and $5.00 inclusive More than $5.00 While the question on Newsom provides three options: Yes and Newsom will be recalled Yes, but Newsom won't be recalled No [there will be no recall] If any of you are interested in participating, let me know and we can follow each other. They say providing feedback on each others answers (especially in areas like counterfactuals - what would need to exist for this prediction NOT to happen, what assumptions am I making, etc.) can be very helpful.