Are Russians going to test the West / President Biden?

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by Lerner, Apr 7, 2021.

  1. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Western military sources estimate that Russia concentrated at least 28 battalion tactical battalions along the border with Ukraine , in addition to Russian forces stationed in the Crimean peninsula and areas held by pro-Russian differences.
    Moscow says that this is a big maneuver of the Russian army, but Moscow does not say when this maneuver will open and end.

    Washington, NATO, and Western European countries, led by Germany, fear P. Putin is
    planning a new round of war in Ukraine, a round that will increase the territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists and possibly also the territory that Russia holds on the Crimean peninsula, measures that would undermine the pro-Western central government in Kiev.

    Past two weeks the Russian military has concentrated forces, including heavy artillery and tanks, along Russia's eastern and northern borders with Ukraine.
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2021
  2. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Some politicians in W criticize what we have now what appears to be a leadership that is a one dimensional leadership that
    executes plan and see what happens. Then the side effects come when they don't think things thru. Maybe they should have followed the adage: " If is not broke, don't fix it."
    What follows is a multidimensional reaction to at best a one dimensional non thought out foreign policy plan. Russians preparing to what appears taking control of Donbass and other areas.
    China deploys initially 5000 troops to Iran. China in Iran will gain a quick reaction force to choke point to 80% of the worlds trade routs (Oil). Also to deter Israel from attacking Iran.
    Iran will feel that they can retaliate with impunity.
    Should US president reverse his oil pipeline exec order? Were will US get it oil in such event? What will happen to the world piece?
    Challenging decisions/times awaiting.

    "Partly, it is the usual tactics, turning up and down the conflict to create instability, to show that Russia is a key player," said one EU diplomat. "We cannot exclude that Biden's presidency is part of the Russian calculus, that it's time for Moscow to show a bit of muscle."
    Lets hope this is proven wrong and our leadership prove Russian calculations wrong.
  3. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    There's an argument to be made that the Ukrainians should never have given up their nukes.
  4. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Ukraine gain independence in 1991.
    By 1996, Ukraine transferred all Soviet-era strategic warheads to Russia.
    Ukraine received extensive assistance to dismantle ICBMs, ICBM silos, heavy bombers, and cruise missiles from the U.S.
    funded Cooperative Threat Reduction Program.

    United States and other NATO members argue that Russian aggression, including the annexation of Crimea,
    violates the Budapest Memorandum that led to Ukraine renouncing the nuclear weapons on its territory following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
  5. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    Russia to pull troops back from near Ukraine - BBC News

    Seems like Biden passed the test. Small wonder; Biden is perhaps the best friend Ukraine has in US, short of maybe late McCain.

    Now, Ukraine needs more help. Weapons, training, and above all NATO Membership Action Plan. Also, straighten up Ukrainian hapless government into more meaningful reform, less corruption, and less stupid political system. Similar to what Joe did for us as Obama's point man on Ukraine.
  6. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    On Obama's point man on Ukraine:

    "Speaking in Crimea, Mr Shoigu said units on exercise would return to base."
    Remainder - under Obama and the point man Ukraine lost Crimea.

    Trump provided the much needed weapons and training you are mentioning.
    Ukraine is thankful do for the blankets that the Obama and the point man provided.
    Straighten up Ukrainian hapless government into more meaningful reform, less corruption, and less stupid political system - not arguing against that.
    8 years under Obama didn't help much in that area but maybe this time around things will be different.
    I welcome the decision to "de-escalate" tensions at the border.

    President Zelensky raised the troop build-up with European leaders last week.

    "Although Russia has shrugged off the build-up as training exercises in response to "threatening" actions from Nato, it is also said to be planning to cordon off areas of the Black Sea to foreign shipping.
    Ukraine fears its ports could be affected."
  7. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    The biggest problems Ukraine faces are internal. Obama admin were the only ones doing a damn thing about them. You clearly didn't pay attention, because you bought the "Biden got a prosecutor fired to protect his son" doozy. You would have known how cathartic firing that prosecutor (name is Viktor Shokin, btw) felt, how it seemed like corrupt institutions are finally starting to be cleaned up. You may know that President Poroshenko was the best partner for the West and the most effective leader Ukraine had since 1991; all this is true. What is also true is his background is being an oligarch, an ultimate swamp predator; he had to be dragged on to keep going on addressing corruption and democratic nation-building. Under Obama/Biden, we had enough of progress to further the EU Association agreement and get close to getting that visa-free travel deal with EU. It all slowed down dramatically when Trump came, and even further when the whole Guiliani-Derkach fiasco culminating with "do us a favor though".
    You've heard about Javelins. They're quite welcome; now Joe has the opportunity to ease restrictions on Ukraine actually deploying where they're needed. They were a nice boon for Poroshenko politically. Right before the deal (and the short meeting with Trump Poroshenko desperately needed politically), Ukraine Prosecutor General office shelved investigation into Paul Manafort's shenanigans and stopped cooperating with the Mueller report. You can't tell me with a straight face these things are not related. What that stupid effort to cook up the Biden affair did was further corrupting Ukraine's already corrupt law enforcement system. What I see starting this January, though, is sharply reduced influence of pro-Russia elements within Ukraine's government, combined with more pressure on Ihor Kolomoisky, I see new sanctions on Russia, and I see some NATO partners bringing up MAP for Ukraine (also, Zelensky finally clearly asking for the MAP). So far, Biden passes your "test".
  8. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    What, exactly, did you expect Obama to do? He was president of the U.S., not emperor of the universe.
  9. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Clearly Obama admin was to soft on Russia. Could Obama have stopped Russia? Perhaps.
    Senator John McCain of Arizona, a harsh critic of Obama’s foreign policy, recommended U.S. to send arms to Ukraine.
    The United States and some other countries boycotted the Moscow Olympics in 1980, and Washington helped arm Afghan rebels against Soviet forces, who eventually went back home.
    McCain conceded that the fight must involve diplomacy, not the military when it came to military US involvement. Unless there was war the military action was of the table.
    One possible military response could have been for NATO to agree to deploy additional forces in countries with significant Russian populations.
    But Obama viewed the Ukraine conflict through another lens.
    Obama’s theory here is simple: Ukraine is a core Russian interest but not an American one, so Russia will always be able to maintain escalated dominance there.
    Obama stated:
    “The fact is that Ukraine, which is a non-NATO country, is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do.”
    But economically there was a way to put pressure by sanctions as the Achilles heel for Russia is their economy – the ruble.
    Russia has consistently defended its own interests, whether it was backing Serbia during the NATO conflict in the Clinton era, invading Georgia during the Bush years, or Ukraine in Obama’s presidency.
    Russia has shown repeatedly that it’s willing to use its military and other means to protect what it sees as its sphere of influence.
  10. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia former Warsaw Pact countries allied with Russia
    as well as the former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all now NATO members, which grants them collective protection in the event of an attack by an external actor, presumably Russia.
    Its about time for Ukraine to join.
    Additionally, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia are also members of the European Union.
    Ukraine came close in 2013 with association agreement with the EU, which the Ukrainian government was scheduled to sign in late 2013.
    That agreement would have ultimately resulted in a free-trade deal between the EU and Ukraine, meaning the former Soviet republic would have moved away from its largest trading partner, Russia.
    Moscow persuaded the Ukrainian government of the time to suspend the signing of the agreement. Massive protests followed, ultimately leading to the ouster of the government.
    Some months later Russia invaded Crimea. Saying it was never Ukrainian anyway.
    Putin return to presidentship in 2012 shows he increasingly viewed the US as an enemy and that the results of the reset of Obama, Clinton was falling apart.

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