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Dennis,

I was thinking the same thing, but I'm going to stay engaged for the next two sessions.

 

Here's a press release about the session Charles posted: Rule of Law Should Precede Democracy in Iraq Say International Scholars in Online Forum

 

Session 2 chats

The session 2 chats were quite a bit more palatable. Session 3, "The War in Iraq and the Changing Face of the Middle East," will probably be the most contentious.

Chat with Mr. Jim Noyes:

mazyar
Hello and welcome back everyone. Our panel today is called: "The Coming Reconstruction: The U.S., Iraq, and the International Community"
mazyar
Let me welcome our first panelist, James Noyes, and start with the first question.
mazyar
Mr. Noyes, how do you imagine an authoritarian regime, with "moderate orientation" that is different from Saddam's regime? Is democracy possible in Iraq?
mazyar
Please send your questions to me. I will post them in order and relevance, within our 45mins. time slot.
Duncan Cox
The Kurds, under no-fly-zone protection of the US and Britain, seem to have been able to govern themselves satisfactorily. Could this be a good model for the early post-war period, where protection is provided by the UN to the Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis, allowing them to govern themselves while a central republic is established with democratic roots and protections of minority rights?
Robert Mitchell
Mr. Noyes, Eric Davfis describes a rather pluralist social/political environment in the Iraq of the 1920s. To what extent has that survived the last 80 years?
Jim Noyes
Certainly, over time, democracy is possible in Iraq, but there will have to be a long period of an interim government, I believe. The last time Iraq had a "civil society," which was functional, occured in the period before 1963. Since then, most of the middle classes of Iraq have left the country. There are well over a million Iraqis abroad. Some of them may return, but without prosperity and without a middle class of any size, it will take time to overcome the Stalinist structure now existing.
Tanya Williams
Even if democracy is established, why would anyone think that other countries in the Middle East will follow the model?
Jim Noyes
Duncan: The Kurds are bitterly divided into two factions, but have been able to reach at least temporary aggreement. To some extent, their relative success in government is transferrable to the rest of Iraq. But the danger lies in the Kurdish desire for complete autonomy and independence. This could be replicated by the Shiite community.
Deborah Riordan
Are we being too optimistic in imaging a "moderate, pro-Western, democratic" state to emerge in the near future in an area that has no traditional or experience in the democratic process?
Jim Noyes
Robert: This is a very key question. In part it depends on whether expatriate Iraqis return iarge numbers, and whether the long Baathist brainwashing may have erased these pluralistic impulses which lasted until 1963. Who knows?
ingrid uys
After so many years of tyrannical rule in Iraq, do you forsee the possiblity of a brekdown in civil order and a realignment of cultural groups that may (or may not) lead to further ethnic tensions?
Edmund Resor
I belive the Kurds are doing well because the power of the regional governments is limited. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. I believe Iraq needs and will prosper with a consitution that strictly limits the power of the Federal Government.
Jim Noyes
Tanya: If democracy is established, it may well be that the initial impact is to cause some of the Arab regimes to become even more repressive rather than democratic. They would fear their own demise in a democratic context, but over time a real Iraqi democracy would undoubtably be a powerful agent for change in the region.
Robert Page
Mr. Noyes: In your paper, you refer to Iram. Yet, there appear to be at least two distinct forces in Iran: the clerics and the reformists. Do the different forces have the same interests regarding such matters as Kurdish independence? I would think the Iran reformists and the Iraq Kurds would share an interest in the spread of democracy and secularism but be competitive regarding control of territory, population, and oil. Comment please.
Jim Noyes
Ingrid, I think you suggest a very real danger in the early stages, even leading to a possible breakup of Iraq as a nation-state. This is why it is so critical to have a US presence in the initial period which defines itself as temporary for the sake of reassurance but which prevents a breakdown of civil order.
Pete Schmidt
Would it be good for Iraq if the interim regime divides the nation into provinces along ethnic lines? Wouldn't that most-likely lead to the eventual break-up of the state? And, given it's origin, is there a reason to maintain the existing borders?
R. Thomas Strother
The world seems repleat with ethnic and religious differences, as in the former Yugoslavia. In view of this, would it not be wise to separate the Kurds from Iraq, iran, and Turkey into a nation of their own? if so, who should do this?
Warren Brown
What's wrong with letting the Kurds have there own country or even breaking up Iraq into three countries?
Jim Noyes
Edmund, I think you are right that Iraq definitely needs a constitution that limits the power of the federal government and gives fair expression to the various minority groups. This would be somewhat chaotic, perhaps, but along the model of Lebanon the division of power eventually into a multi-party system might well prevent dictatorship.
Charles Smith
Mr. Noyes, How strong are the medical institutions and the institutions of higher learning ie graduate and post graduate programs and how involved have they been with international students and what can be predicted for these institutions?
Jim Noyes
Robert, whether reformist or clerics, Iranian nationalism would see Kurdish independence as a threat to Iran. Iranian democracy would probably bring a desire to see Iraq as a whole, democratic, but not an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq.
Farhang Jahanpour
I think one problem with the loose use of the term democracy is that we do not exactly know what it means and whether the West would welcome a real democracy. I believe the rule of law and a tolerant and pluralist society would be the best thing one can hope for rather than a replica of one or other Western models of democracy. Do you agree?
Jim Noyes
Pete, ideally Iraq would be better off without ethnic provinces. Many Shia positioned in Sunni areas and vice-versa, so the hope is that we will not now see a destructive impetus toward ethnic cleansing where, for example, Sunnis in the south of Iraq are persecuted and driven out. I know there are some in the US government who would like to see Iraq broken up as a state in order to improve the political and strategic enviornment of the region. I disagree strongly with such a theory, and believe the chaos that would result might well provide terrorist havens and more threats to our friends in the region.
ingrid uys
Farhang, is not conceivable that the people of the Middle East would enjoy freedom of speech, association of the press just for starters? opposition would seem to be the basis of any kind of democracy.
Erik McDermott
From what you know of the US's plans for post-war Iraq, do you think these plans reveal good understanding of the many difficulties as you see them, or do you think they are recipes for failure?
Jim Noyes
Thomas, Turkey would fight to its last soldier in order to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, not to mention including the Iranian Kurds or their own Turkish Kurds. The Kurds are a sad part of the breakup of the Ottoman Empire and the events that followed WW I.
John A. Coleman
Ingrid.Your streching Farhang's suggestion.The rule of law is a good start.Tolerance is certainly a possiblity..They could build on that after some time.
Jim Noyes
Farhang, I agree, if we have in the early stages a classical democratic state in Iraq, with majority Shia representation, we might well face the prospect of a radical Islamist state. Iraq will probably have to develop its own way of having a rule of law and pluralist tolerance.

 

Mr. Jim Noyes chat continued

Farhang Jahanpour
Ingrid, I am all for the establishment of democracy in the Middle East and I believe there are different versions of democracy in some Middle Eastern countries. What I wish to say is that any democracy that develops there must be in keeping with the cultures of those countries, rather than an imitation of a Western model.
Eddie Rogers
Mr. Noyes, is there a role for the Arab League in the reconstruction?
Elaine Morton
Mr. Noyes: Who are the people your are referring to when you say that some in the US government would like to see Iraq broken up as a state in order to improve the political and strategic invironment of the region? My impression is that there is unanimity about the importance of NOT creating a situation in which Iraq breaks up.
Charles Fout
Mr. Noyes- French President, Jacques Chirac, has demanded that the UN take the central role in rebuilding Iraq. What authority would you give to the UN regarding the rebuilding of Iraq?
Jim Noyes
Erik, there have been so many statements coming from various members of the Administration and apparent disagreements within the Administration that I think they are simply improvising at the moment. There are dilemmas with the UN. The UN doesn't want a unilateral US guidance in Iraq, nor do the European powers want to pay for the role that they say the UN should have. If we continue in a mode of pique and jealousy within the Security Council, it will be a disaster. We need the UN and they need us. The timing of their role is the key factor. Even if we all agreed that the UN should take charge immediately, it would take six months to a year for the UN to organize full administration in Iraq.
Jim Noyes
Eddie: The Arab League is not known for its ability to be effective or cooperative. They might, however, provide some kind of support at some stage. They are hardly useful mentors for a democratic state, however.
Erik McDermott
How likely do you think it is that democracy in Iraq could lead to fundamental Islamists coming to power -- only to then abrogate the democracy?
Eddie Rogers
Agree with that, but some form of participation by Arab states in reconstruction would help take the edge off the anger in the Arab World.
Farhang Jahanpour
I think the model in Afghanistan worked rather well, despite the problems that still exist. UN gives an impression of impartiality and respectibility, while a US backed administration would be seen as foreign occupation. That may work in the short-term, but soon Arab nationalism will turn against it.
Jim Noyes
Elaine, I know that the official rhetoric from Washington fortunately supports Iraq's territorial integrity. To a great extent, this is reassurance to Turkey that we are not going to permit an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq which would become a dangerous stimulant to seperatist asperations among Turkey's Kurds.
Robert Page
Farhang and Mr. Noyes, are you aware of any effort toward the development of protocols to arrive at an appropriate blend of democratic principles and local culture?
Ricardo Oxenford
It is evident that to have international approval and support, the UN should have a decisive role in designing the future government in Irak. This would obviously take into account the different local opinions. For them to "obey "the new democratic system, the UN would be a much more credible broker than the coalition as "imposer" of a new government system. Do you agree?
Jim Noyes
Charles, certainly the UN has urgent, immediate responsibilities for humanitarian and other activities. It just remains to be seen whether agreements can be made within the Security Council to broaden the UN role, eventually, so that the US profile can diminish.
Imre Juhasz
Re. Charles Fout's question to Mr. Noyes, the UN is comprised of 191 nations who are signatories to the Charter. Their signature signifies that they are going; to operate under the rules of the Charter. No one has the right to place themselves outside of that charter and talk about what powers should we give to the UN or in any other way to operate outseid eof the Charter. So the very question of what authority we should give to the UN is illegitimate and assumes that there is a power outside the Charter which is greater than the accepted law (Charter).
Farhang Jahanpour
Robert, many in Iran including President Khatami speak of an Islamic democracy. I think that is meaningless. However, I believe we should allow for local varieties of democracy. To me the ability to change the government and respect for human rights are all that counts.
Ricardo Oxenford
Right on, Imre
Jim Noyes
Eddie, the US and the UN, whover, will be have their hand out to the wealthy countries of the Arab League, undoubtedly to assist in the financial reconstruction of Iraq; but the Arab League, as I said, is so badly divided that I don't quite see how they could take a major role in reconstruction.
Edmund Resor
I believe the U.S. and U.K. Govts. and the UN Professional Staff need to protect the Iraqi people from the French and Russian Govts. using their veto power in the Security Council to pursue their own commerical interests, particularly debt collection. The UN Specialized Agencies can mobilize Arab and Muslim professional to help rebuild Iraq. See the work to date and the UNDP Report on Human Development in the Arab World.
Jim Noyes
Robert, I am sure there are many academic and governmental taskforces studying this problem. It is one that has been addressed for decades from many angles. But I don't know of specific studies at the moment.
ingrid uys
Mr Noyes I think Eddie has a point. If this exercise is about persuading other countries in the region to reform then the Arab League is surely a good place to begin. bring them on side and nurture them...it is a start
Robert Page
Mr. Noyes: Is it reasonable for the US to expect others to contribute funds to rebuild facilities we chose to destroy against objections from others? If not, then funds to rebuild such facilities should come from the US, the UK, and the Marshall Islands (all of them).
Elaine Morton
Ricardo: Even the UN-designed future government for Iraq that you propose would reflect an undemocratic process because it would impose a government from above. It would be better for the UN and/or the Coalition to facitiltate the assembly of a Constitutional Convention made up of Iraqi components with wide internal representation. They are the ones who should design a government for Iraq.
Jim Noyes
Imre, the US is a signatory of the Fourth Geneva Convention, and we have responsibility as an occupying power to care for the humanitarian needs of the Iraqi people. This is the urgent responsibility of the moment. If the big powers of the UN do not agree on a course of action, this does not mean that the whole process should stop.
Charles Fout
Re. Imre Juhasz statement the UN showed that it is impotent over the last 12 years. The U.S. , UK and the the rest removed Saddam. France, China, Russia, Syria are in no position to make demands. The Iraqi people are free not because of the UN.
Jim Noyes
Robert, Iraq has been destroyed by its wars against Iran and Kuwaitt, The destruction we have caused is relatively small. Iraq must have complete monetary reform, legal reform, etc. etc. and the rebuilding of facilities is but a part of it.
Pete Schmidt
Speaking of the Iraqi people being free, was it a good decision for the US forces to allow looting of Iraqi government offices? I guess the follow up to that is, Could they have stopped it?
mazyar
please stop sending your questions in.
Jim Noyes
Pete - I don't think the US forces will be in a position to stop looting until they are in a ceasefire enviornment. I've heard several of the officers and soldiers speak of this on CNN interviews.
mazyar
thank you all very much.
mazyar
we have to move to our next panelist.

 

Dr. Charles Hill chat

mazyar
Professor Hill.
mazyar
Professor Hill, are you ready?
Professor Charles Hill
Hello.
Professor Charles Hill
Yes, I'm ready.
mazyar
Professor Hill, how can the UN and the Security Council deal in the future with a similar situation such as Iraq effectively, to remain relevant as an international organization?
mazyar
Please send your questions to me. I will post them in order and relevance, within our 45mins. time slot.
R. Thomas Strother
Professor- Mr Noyes said that the USA has the responsisbility, under the Fourth Geneva Convention, to handle the humanitarian needs of Iraq. If that is so, then what role remains for the UN?
Professor Charles Hill
Mazyar, the UN is a valuable mechanism and remains so even after the problems of recent weeks. It did not function effectively at the end of this process because the French were determined to turn the string of UN Resolutions upside down putting the burden of proof on the UN rather than on Saddam Hussein. If the French had not done this, the Security Council would have worked very well. We hope this setback will mean that no other member of the Permanent Five will try to manipulate the Council again as the French just have.
Imre Juhasz
Prof. Hill, aren't you treating the UN likeas if it would be a person? Isn't it betterto treat it like a collection of individuals who agreed to abide by its rules? Consequently, its success is only as good as the individual states who'se resolve it is to abide by those rules?
Professor Charles Hill
R. Thomas, Professor Noyes is correct and the US will be abiding by the Geneva Convention. The UN can and will play a valuable role in the humanitarian and social work in Iraq. It takes a long time for the UN system to organize effectively for action. In the months that this will take, the US will be responsible almost entirely for the entire humanitarian needs for the Iraqi people, but within five or six months we will see a phase-out and phase-in process in which the US withdraws and the international agencies move in.
Professor Charles Hill
Imre, that's quite correct. The UN really is a building with rooms and tables and chairs and those seats are filled by individual member states. The Security Council has a revolving system so that at another time, those in the seats of the Council would have been different than they were in March of this year. This means that international politics will always play a powerful role and as you say, the UN is not a monolithic independent institution separate from those who are its members.
Elaine Morton
Professor Hill: Do you think the UN should amend its previous resolutions requiring Iraq to set aside a significant portion of its oil income for reparations? Similarly, do you think the UN should pass a resolution recommending forgiveness of Iraq foreign debt, or rescheduling to draw out the repayment process? Or is this beyond the purview of the UN?
Diane Olson
Professor Hill, what role do you envision for the Arab League? Mr. Noyes does not appear to have much confidence in this organization.
Erik McDermott
How is it that we're blaming the French for the failure of diplomacy when Russia, China and Syria were also dead-set against the use of force, and the undecided countries in the security council were just as likely to vote No as Yes? Isn't this blame-game just a poor excuse for the US's own failure in assembling a majority in the security council? (If the US could have gotten a majority, regardless of a french (or russian, or chinese) veto, it could have claimed a significant moral victory). Comments?
Professor Charles Hill
Elaine, the oil-for-food program should be terminated as it now stands as circumstances have drastically changed. However, the oil-for-food program does provide a precedent and a mechanism for maintaining international supervision of Iraq's oil revenues in order to ensure that they go to the reconstruction of the country and to the benefit of the Iraqi people. The question of Iraq's foreign debt is one under international law of the "succession of states" an the assumption has to be that the new Iraqi government will fulfill all of the legitimate obligations incurred by the previous Iraqi government. That of course would not include the criminal or terrorist or other violations of international law that Saddam has been involved in. But for the legal obligations of Iraq, the oil revenues should be sufficient to cover those over time.
Elaine Morton
Professor Hill: Richard Holbrooke has called attention to three different models of UN participation after a conflict has ended: the Bosnia model, the Kosovo model, and the Afghanistan model. Can you comment? Which of these would be suitable for Iraq? Could the UN be asked to bless an Interim Iraq Authority that would have independent executive power but would not report to the UN for approval/disapproval of its specific decisions?
Professor Charles Hill
Diane, the Arab League does not have an impressive record of being able even to reach unified opinions. However, it is an important regional organization and the UN Charter under Chapter 8 envisions a responsible role for such organizations with regard to international security. The US-led coalition should now approach the Arab League to invite them to participate in the reconstruction physically and politically of Iraq. This is a wonderful opportunity for the Arab League to rise to a level of international prominence and responsibility that it has heretofore lacked.
Edmund Resor
Prof. Hill what role to you see for UN Specialized Agencies, as opposed to the Security Council? Have you read the UNDP report on Human Development in the Arab World? This report is not a bad plan for a progressive and democratic Iraq.
Mark Hardenbergh
There is a reason why democracy succeeds in the US and England. We may have diversity, but we also have a lot of commonality. Neither the UN nor Iraq has very much in the way of common objectives. The world needs a leader. And the UN doesn't have one. It's unfortunate that the US has to use its military power to be the leader. But that is what it has done. If it going to take six months for the UN to mobilize into an organization to run Iraq, whether we like it or not, we're the man. But we need diplomats and negotiators who, first and foremost are acceptable to Arabs. Ie Garner and his assitant from the CIA must go. That is if we are trying to get along with the world. In purely selfish terms, it's bad for business to have Garner and the CIA run Iraq.
Professor Charles Hill
Erik, in the last days of the Security Council debate, little or any reference was made to Iraq or Saddam Hussein. Each nation seemed to be primarily interested in its own national interest and domestic political pressures. China, for example, played out its usual passive approach, concerned only with whether what would emerge from the Security Council might set a precedent contrary to its own interests to avoid external intervention. Almost all of these countries were operating in this self-absorbed fashion under the cover of French opposition to the US. The French, in my view, came into this with malice aforethought and with aspirations to use this case as a vehicle for increasing their own influence in the European Union. At the end, the members of the Security Council knew that if the French veto were to take place, that the US would in any event go forward with the war, so in a sense these members were free to follow their own national self interests.
Professor Charles Hill
Edmund, yes I have read the report and it is a powerful document, indeed an indictment of the entire Arab world's governance of itself. The UN and the Arab League should take that report as a set of guidelines for the reconstruction and renovation of good governance for Iraq and Iraq might then even serve as a model for other Arab countries.
Pete Schmidt
Professor Hill: We've seen the UN ineffective from Somolia to Kosovo to Rwanda to Afghanisan to Iraq. Even with SARS, the Times points out that the WHO has no actual authority and was left to plead with the Chinese to release information. What should the UN do to reestablish iteself?
Edmund Resor
Let me speak about the UN in Somalia because I work with Somalis 7x24 running telephone companies. The UN Specialized Agencies are helping Somalia. Its just than now one, not the UN, the U.S., or the Somalis themselves can come up with a National Government which is strong enough to do something and trustworthy enough for the Somali people to let it take power.
Imre Juhasz
Prof. Hill, it appears the the Palestinians want justice more than democracy, so, isn't President Bush's call for democracy for the Palestinians a convenient clichè?

 

Dr. Charles Hill chat continued

Professor Charles Hill
Mark, there is enormous diversity in the US and at the same time great commonality. It is not at all impossible that Iraq is in something of the same situation. There is diversity among the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shia, but there is also a common sense that Iraq must remain an integral state with borders as they have existed in the past. Within this state, good governance is certainly possible. If democracy cannot be expected to emerge immediately or in the near future, a process of democratization is possible. As American officials are today making clear, the political future of Iraq will be decided by the Iraqi people. The Americans such as General Garner are there to ensure that good administration emerges, the security is maintained and that the Iraqi people have the chance to express themselves in a positive way.
Mark Princi
Is it helpful for Mr Rumsfeld to veto Gen Garner's staff choices?
Professor Charles Hill
Pete, the UN can only be as effective as the states who make it up. There has to be an understanding that the UN is an international organization but also an organization of sovereign states and therefore there is always a tension between the interests of the international community and the sovereign rights of a particular state. In the case of SARS, China appears to have been determined to cover up a very serious health crisis, but the international community, having recognized this, have put pressure on China in ways that will bring the Chinese leadership into more responsible behavior. This is the way that the tension between the international and the national can be resolved.
R. Thomas Strother
Professor Hill- do you see the war in Iraq as a part of Pres. Bush's proclaimed War on Terrorism?
ingrid uys
Prof Hill, you mentioned in your position paper that the war on terrorism is actually a war against the international system - what did you mean by this?
Elaine Morton
Professor Hill: After the Coalition has eliminated any remaining Iraqi WMD capabilities, what do you believe the US government's position will be regarding Iran? How will it address the issue of Iran's preliminary steps toward acquiring a nuclear weapons capability? This relates indirectly to the international community's interest in safeguarding an effective non-proliferation regime. What, if anything, should be done about non-declared nuclear powers like Israel?
Professor Charles Hill
Imre, no. When President Bush made his statements last summer, the first reactions in the media were to the effect that of course Palestinians did not or could not want or manage democracy. We soon saw the responsible Palestinian leaders reacting positively to the idea of self-government and a process moving in the direction of democracy. Recently we have seen the establishment of a prime ministry and the appointment of a responsible Palestinian leader well known to the outside world, and the representatives of the Palestinian people took steps to ensure that that Prime Minister's office would have legitimate authorities independent of the dictates of Mr. Arafat. This is a very positive development. The best avenue for Palestinian justice is through Palestinian democratic government.
Professor Charles Hill
Mark P, the process of personnel selection is always a struggle within the bureaucracy in Washington. Within the military chain of command, the Secretary of Defence does and should have an ability to veto particular people, but overall this is just a run of the mill inside the beltway struggle of the kind that takes place in any significant case involving the national interest and I am confident that process will shake itself out satisfactorily over the next weeks.
Ellen Donahoe
Professor Hill: It is my understanding that the Isralei-Palestinian conflict and lack of a peace treaty enables Islamic radicals with the fuel for anti-American and anti-democratic rhetoric. Do you think that peace in Palestine is a prerequisite to developing a democratic system in Iraq?
Michael Jecko
Prof Hill does NATO have any role?
Professor Charles Hill
R. Thomas, yes. The War on Terrorism is in fact more accurately described as the war of a revolutionary ideology that uses terrorism against the established international system. The terrorists operate on many fronts and the war has to be fought on each of these fronts. One is the war against Al-Queda and other non-state terrorist groups that oppose the international system in every aspect. They would replace Arab states, for example, with an Islamic caliphate. Another front is occupied by those regimes that pose as legitimate states but in fact are in reality gangs or warlords who have taken over the powers of a particular state. Iraq was foremost among these; North Korea is another, and indeed, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is also one front in which the war must be fought. Between 2000 and mid-2002 the terrorists were calling the shots for the Palestinian cause and the terrorists are of course utterly opposed to peace with Israel. Therefore, no such peace is possible until the grip of terrorism can be b
Professor Charles Hill
broken. That grip has not yet been broken but it has been severely weakened, so on these and other fronts the war on terrorism will continue for some time to come.
mazyar
we are approaching the end please stop sending your questions.
mazyar
Thank you all very much. Sorry for those questions that I did not have time to post.
R. Thomas Strother
Professor Hill- re: Israel-Palestine, are not both sides terrorists? Palestine for their suicide bombers, Israel for their super-massive reprisals?
mazyar
sorry for the last question.
mazyar
Professor Hill, do you have any answers left that I need to post?
Professor Charles Hill
Elaine M., Iran is in a distinctive situation in that the regime appears to be losing the constant support of the people. We do not know what effect the American operation in Iraq will have on the Iranian government, but we do know that in the weeks leading up to Operation Iraqi Freedom, we were in a fundamentally working relationship with the Iranians on the ground. There are two categories of activity that Iran is undertaking which seem to date back to the ambitious revolutionary aspirations of the Ayotallah Khomeini. These are a nuclear program and Iranian support for terrorist groups acting against Israel. Both these activities will have to be curtailed or stopped before Iran can be regarded as a responsible international citizen. Our diplomacy will have to be open to contact with the Iranians and to encourage change within its practices. As for Israel, its nuclear program is entirely defensive. Israel has called for some years for the Middle East to be a nuclear weapons-free zone.
mazyar
Thank you all very much. I see you all tomorrow at the same time.
Professor Charles Hill
With the transformation of the Middle East from repressive regimes to responsible representative governments, and with the achievement of a state of peace between Israel and Palestine, a nuclear-free Middle East is not impossible.
Professor Charles Hill
Thank you for a good discussion.
mazyar
Thank you.

 

Session 3 chat

Third and final chat. My personal opinion is that "Baghdad Bob" could have easily filled in for Dr. Dallal. Mr. Robert Mabro's discussion was far more interesting in my opinion.

Dr. Ahmad Dalla chat:

mazyar
Hello and welcome back everyone. Our last panel in the series, with Professors Dallal and Mabro, is called: The War in Iraq and the Changing Face of the Middle East.
mazyar
Let me welcome our first panelist, Professor Ahmad Dallal, and start with the first question.
mazyar
Please send your questions to me. I will post them in order and relevance, within our 45mins. time slot.
mazyar
Professor Dallal, how can we understand yesterday's jubilation, seen as TV images by us? What does all this jubilation mean in relation to Arab public opinion?
Ahmad Dallal
Hello.
James Johnson
Why should the US care about Arab public opinion, inasmuch as there is litle, if any, democracy in the Middle East?
Ahmad Dallal
I am not sure the media covered the whole story. Of course many Iraqis are happy to get rid of Saddam's regime. But it is clear that most Iraqis are equally ambivilanet about the occuopation of their country. The numbers that showed up yesterday are not huge by any standard.
Tom
Professor Dallal- do you still, today, belioeve there is widespread opposition to the War- in the Middle East? in the World?
Ahmad Dallal
The US should care becasue it is occupying an Arab country; it also claims to care since there can be no legitimacy for this war if there is not public support.
Robert Page
Professor Dallal: Some reports from the nonembedded press have indicated that the Iraqi people did not treat our forces as liberators because they were not sure we would not abandon them as we did before. In other words, the Iraqi peoples' true reaction may not be known until they are convinced that they have been liberated from reprisal from Saddam. Therefore, is it too early to judge the condition?
Ahmad Dallal
I sure do. One telling picture as the Saddam statute was pulled down was the reaction of the few Iraqis that gathered around the statue when an American flag was raised; despite their complete helplessness, and their clear dislike of Saddam and his regime, Iraqis were quick to raise their own flag.
Elaine Morton
Professor Dallal: How would you amend the thoughts expressed in your position paper in view of the news of welcoming celebrations in Baghdad and Kirkuk?
Barbara Roche
What hope can we have for democracy in states where the dominant religion (Islam) favors no deparation between mosque and state?
Ahmad Dallal
I think that fear is a factor but not the only one. After all, it has become clear in many southern Iraqi cities that Saddam no longer controls the southern part ot the country, and still people are expressing their resentment in a variety of ways.
Pete Schmidt
Wouldn't feelings about Saddam run deepest in Baghdad? Wasn't that where the regime was most active? How should we contrast feelings in Baghdad with feelings in the outlying areas?
Ahmad Dallal
The northern part of Iraq, with the large Kurdish minority, is the one place where I think there is a majority of the population that would welcome American intervention but evenn there it is not without qualification; the Kurds have already expressed their desire to see a quick transition into self rule.
Duncan Cox
Prof. Dallal: You wrote "So far, the vast majority of Iraqis have treated this war as an occupation by a foreign army and not as liberation .." Why did you not mention that the Iraqis were scared to express their true feelings?
Ahmad Dallal
The iraqis are the ones who suffered most at the hands of the regime, and therefore, it si to be expected that they, more than all other neighbouring Arabs, would be glad to rid themselves of Saddam. Still, I think it is clear that many iraqis do not see this as a simple choice between Saddam and American occupation; and as such they can oppose both. i think we are likely to see more of that in the coming days.
Charles Fout
Dr. Dallal- Many people, including several participating in todays discussion, attribute Arab anti-Americanism to U.S. support of Israel. However, others (Barry Rubin, The Real Roots of Arab Anti-Americanism, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2002) suggest that U.S. support of Israel has little to nothing to do with Arab hatred of the U.S. Mr. Rubin puts forth the theory that oppressive regimes, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria, encourage anti-Americanism as a way of deflecting their own failure to respond to demands for democracy, human rights, higher standards of living and less corruption and incompetence in government. Please comment.
Eddie Rogers
Prof. Dallal, I read today that the Syrian media were covering the fall of Baghdad, but were careful not to show the tearing down of the Statue, presumably because Damascus is full of statues of the Syrians own beloved Bashir (and Hafez). Doesn't this show that another Arab ste views the fall of Iraq as a liberation?
Ahmad Dallal
In many areas where Saddam's regime fell, many iraqis continued to express their opposition to the occupying armies. There were demonstrations in Zubayar days after the Iraqis forces were driven out. There was a huge unarmed demonstration by the Shi'a in Najaf after the Saddam's army was defeated, that revented US troops from approaching the mosque of Ali. Also relevant is that we are not seeing any coverage of the hospitals in Baghdad where the response would be very different
James Johnson
Professor, I don't think Saddam controlled the Southern part of Iraq during the inital stages of the Shia uprising in 1991. What then happened, howev er, still serves as a warning.
Robert Page
Professor Dallal: Amy Goodman on Pacifica has been covering the hospitals
Ahmad Dallal
These oppressive regimes are often closely allied to the US and depend on the US for their very survival. So anti-Americanism is partly a result of the Arab-Israeli conflict, but also the role the US have played in thwarting democraticv change int he ME
ingrid uys
Prof Dallal it is reported today that the head of the Shia's in Najaf was killed. Is this the beginning of clashes between the different ethnic groups?
mazyar
Ayatollah Khoei is one of them!
Ahmad Dallal
I do not think that people see the fall of Saddam as liberation, even if they oppose Saddam, and Syria hisorically has had very bad relations with Iraq, in fact more that Kuwait did up till 1990. Again, most people see things in a more textured way
Duncan Cox
Prof Dallal: Thank you for your comment about oppressive regimes.
Erik McDermott
Regardless of possible feelings of resentment towards the US on the part of Iraqis now, the fact that the Shiites in the South violently rebelled against Hussein after the Gulf War suggests that their true desire is in fact to be rid of Hussein, no?

 

Dr. Ahmad Dallal chat continued

Tom
Anyone- what is Pacifica?
Lawrence Lundgren
Prof. Dallal One or more of the people in this group wrote that there were very small numbers demonstrating. And earlier you noted that no enthusiastic reception had been shown as of 8 April. I have just seen the 18.00 (CET) Swedish news and it looks to me that there were 1000s demonstrating in Suleimaniya (Kurdistan) and Kirkuk (also Kurds probably). Have you had any new thoughts about the significance of the positive reception of Americans in these places and one other Nasaryia (spelling ?)
Ahmad Dallal
The contrast with 1991 is telling. I think that the fact that so far there has been no uprising reflects not fear but mixed feelings. After all, no one doubts, including most Iraqis, that American forces intend to get rid of Saddam and will prevail; so I think there is more to it than fear of Saddam
Ahmad Dallal
yes there has been some coverage of hospitals, but it is hushed and with little commentary, and also the voice of Iraqis in and around these hospitals are hardly heard
Robert Page
Tom: Pacifica radio out of Cal with stations in Hou, NY, etc. Amy's show is Democracy Today, 8-10 AM central time
Elaine Morton
Professor Dallal: Why, in view of recent events, do you keep saying that "so far there has been no uprising." Do you think we have just been viewing media "photo ops?"
Ahmad Dallal
I am not aware of the latest killings in Najaf, but I think there is a great danger of internal strife; there are rerports of factional wars in Nasiriya, and there could be more of this in days to come
Dianne King
In your position paper you stated that "...as a result of this war, Americans will now be at greater risk, with the increase of anti-American sentiments around the world." Do you have any suggestions for Americans on how to deal with this greater risk?
david anderson
Prof. Dallal, at the Yale Teach-In on March 29, Paul Kennedy noted that the Shi'a constitute 55% of the population. Might a democratic election yield a fundamentalist Islamic republic?
Ahmad Dallal
Of course the Shi'a and many Arab Sunnis not to mention the Kurds have been struggling against Saddam and have offered great sacrifices in this struggle, but again the choice cannot be one of oppression and occupation
James Johnson
If the US supports the oppressive regimes (and I presume you mean Saudi Arabia and Egypt, among others), and the people therefore dislike the Americans and yearn for democracy, why haven't they over thrown their regimes. And if the can't, why should the US fear them?
Lawrence Lundgren
Prof. Dallal Swedish news confirms the killings in Najaf. The main person killed was he who had urged people not to react against Americans, I believe. I appreciate your comment about hospitals. Here we see the remarkable Norwegian journalist Asne Seijerstads reports from the hospitals but the New York Times and other US sources report nothing about the people. Why is this?
Elaine Morton
Professor Dallal: Even in the proposed federal structure for post-War Iraq, the Iraqi Kurds would have to give up much of the autonomy enjoyed over the last 10 years. Do you think they will react to this with equanimity?
Ahmad Dallal
Again, the iraqis have been under massive bombardment in what has been described as a historic bombardment, and they are sure happy to come out of this alive; many also do not like Saddam, but the jubilation is exagerated and I think the numbers are not that massive, although I expect the numbers to be much larger in the north
Tom
Professor: When the Soviet Union fell apart, many of its subject states went wild rebelling against one another (clcearly the old regime had kept them very quiet, if not happy). Should we not expect similar reactions in Iraq, now that the old regime has fallen apart?
Ahmad Dallal
There simply has not been an uprising, and I think it is clear to many Iraqis that this time an uprising would not be crushed by Saddam; so there must be other reasons that no such uprising have taken place
Duncan Cox
Prof Dallal: Why are you talking about occupation? Who is in favor of occupation? The US goal is to transition Iraq to elected government.
Ahmad Dallal
I think the way to deal with increased risks of political violence is to foster dialogue and cooperation to to try to address long standing political and economic problems in the ME and elsewhere
Erik McDermott
Concerning the alleged link between Hussein and Al Qaeda: I strongly agree with you that these claims have been unsubstantiated. I also agree with you that Iraq has no nuclear weapons. But it seems quite likely they have chemical weapons. My question is, Given the strong animosity Hussein has/had for the US, why wouldn't he consider giving chemical weapons to terrorists? So what if the terrorist has a completely different ideology from Hussein's? Remember it's a fact that Hussein pays families of suicide bombers in Israel/Palestine...
Ahmad Dallal
The Shi'a are about 60 to 70%; but I do not think there is a big risk of having a fundamentalist state in Iraq since there is a long tradition of secularism in Iraqi politics; the key, however, is the middle class, which is currently alienated
Ahmad Dallal
One of the reasons the waves of democracy did not blow over the ME is the international support (including by US) of some of these regimes and the absurd idea, rpomoted by the same advocates of the current war, that democracy will not work in the ME
david anderson
Ayatollah Khoei is not a factor then?
James Johnson
Professor, what do you think will be the reaction of the Iraqis currently in Iraq to those Iraqis who return from Iraq from abroad with expectations of participating in the new government?
Ahmad Dallal
There has been a deliberate attempt to sanitize this war and hide its ugly face. Many believe that the offices of aljazeerah were bombed by American planes exactly becaue they were showing images of death and carnage, in cotrast to the images we are getting on cable netowrk
Erik McDermott
Isn't Iraq's secular government tradition in fact rather unique in the ME? So that a democracy in Iraq, bolstered by this strong secular tradition, might in fact serve as an example to other middle eastern countries?
Ahmad Dallal
The problem in the Kurdish north is not just loss of autonomy, but there is a big and yet unresolved problem with Turkey and also there are internal faction al problems, and I do not see these problems resolved anytime soon
ingrid uys
Prof Dallal I am troubled that all the anger and uprising is soley directed towards the west. Is opposition and dissent tolerated in Arab societies about their societies?
Ahmad Dallal
Perhaps; but the main difference is that these old states were not under foreign occupation
Ahmad Dallal
The use of occupation is not a judgement on my part, but it is what is actually happening on the ground. And of course the big irony is that this war is marketed as liberation through occupation, which is a contradiction
Diane Olson
Professor Dallal, in your opinion, what is the most constructive thing the US could do now, given the need for humanitarian aid, reconstruction, maintenance of order, etc?
Ahmad Dallal
Newsweek recently reported that Hussein Kamal, former minister of Iraq's military industry who defected to Jordan in 1995 told the Americans that Iraq used to have chemcial and biological weapons, which is the evidence presented by Powell at the UN, but he also said that these were destroyed, which Powell failed to report. Also, so far none of these weapons have been found or used. Of course some may still be found, but there is so far no evidence that Iraq contemplated the use of these or any other weapons in an aggressive act against the US, and one cannot initiate massive wars on the basis of no evidence of aggression
Ahmad Dallal
Many Iraqi exiles have credibility but many others don't; and the choice of who playes a role should be on the basis of their credentials and not their closeness to the Pentagon or State Department
Robert Mitchell
Prof. Dallal, It has been said, whether or not true, that an imposed democracy is in effect a dictatorship. Is that how a new democratic government will be viewed by the Iraqi people - as just one more in a long line of imposed govenments?
Ahmad Dallal
Iraq has potential, and its great human potential has been thwarted by Saddam's oppressive regime; but the problem and huge challenge now is to convince peole that occupatin and democracy are compatible
Ahmad Dallal
There is a lot of dissent in Arab societies, and many opposition groups pay dearly for it.
mazyar
we are running out of time. please stop sending questions.
Ahmad Dallal
The most important thing is to trnsfer powerm to credible Iraqis, complicated as this procees may be, and to end the military presence as quickly as possible , and to focus on a just resolution of the Palestine-Israel conflict
Ahmad Dallal
Some Iraqis and perhaps more Arabs will make that argument, but I am sure others will try to make the best out pf the surrent situation. Only time will tell what the final outcome will be
mazyar
we stop here. Thank you Professor Dallal.
mazyar
Let me immediately turn to our second and final panelist Professor Robert Mabro.
mazyar
Is he on?
Ahmad Dallal
My pleasure.

 

Professor Robert Mabro chat

mazyar
Professor Mabro, the Kurds have taken over the city of Kirkuk (an important oil producing city). The Turkish government is very nervous about this (as the coalition forces in the north are fewer in numbers). How do you comment on this in regards to your assertion that this war is not an "oil war?"
Robert Mabro
My position is not that oil is irrelevant to this war but that it was not the prime motive, meaning that Iraq would have been attacked even if it had no oil.
Elaine Morton
Mr. Mabro: Why are you confident that Iraq's national oil company will accept production sharing contracts? The PSAs given French & Russian companies were deliberately attractive because France & Russia have Security Council veto power. Iraq's current "model contract" looks much more like a buyback and resource nationalism is likely to be heightened in a post-war environment.
Robert Mabro
The Kurdish-Turkish problem has a number of dimensions. First, Turkey has been claiming Kirkuk since the 1920s.
Robert Mabro
It does not want the Kurds to lay hand on it.
Robert Mabro
Secondly, Turkey does not want Iraqi Kurds to be autonomous as this will encourage Turkish Kurds to seek autonomy.
Robert Page
Mr. Mabro: Re negotiations with foreign oil companies: The US government has been very clear that we invested our recourses in this war, we will control the outcome, and those that opposed our will will not get any contracts. Your statement that "US and UK oil companies will be able to explore for, and develop oil resources in Iraq" implies that this will be a closed market. Therefore, is it reasonable to think that open worldwide competitive forces (ie a free market) will control the terms of any contract?
Robert Mabro
Elaine: I think that Iraq under any government these days will need foreign investment in the oil sector.
Robert Mabro
The production sharing agreement is the most common form of contract in this industry.
Apr 10, 2003 1:00:50 PM
Robert Mabro
The buyback contract was invented by the Iranians as an alternative to production sharing but they are in essence a disguised form of production sharing.
Robert Mabro
Of course, if the new Iraqi government will be a nationalist government it may well want a formula that is tougher than the normal production sharing contract.
Robert Mabro
We have to wait and see.
Duncan Cox
Prof Mabro: You conclude your position paper with "The arab world..perceive the war on Iraq as a neo-colonialist war." If the US follows through and exits the area after helping the Iraqi people to extablish an elected government, will that perception not radically change?
Tom
Mr. Mabro, sir: what is a production sharing agreement?
Elaine Morton
Mr. Mabro: After the international companies have completed the work contracted in Iran they have to LEAVE. Usually after about 7 years. Over the life of the field, Iran gets much more income than it would with a production sharing agreement.
Robert Mabro
Robert: I think that the US government will be very foolish to close the oil sector to companies from countries that have supported the coalition.
Robert Mabro
If the bidding is closed to a few companies Iraq's bargaining power will be weak.
Robert Mabro
It is in the interest of Iraq to have the bidding open competitively to as many qualified companies as possible.
Robert Mabro
Again, we shall see what happens.
Robert Mabro
Tom: production sharing agreement is structured in the following way: the foreign oil companies get a share of the production in the area they have explored and developed and the government gets another share.
ingrid uys
Mr Mabro do you think it appropriate that Arab society is exposed to democracy?
Erik McDermott
So in your view the fact that Iraq is sitting on the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world is just a coincidence in this war?
Robert Mabro
The companies get nothing if they fail to discover oil. The government allows the company an additional share at the beginning to cover their investment costs.
Robert Mabro
Of course, there are many other details but this is the gist of the story.
Robert Mabro
Duncan: If the US manages to establish order, settle all the politcal disputes that divide Iraqis ethnically and politically, if they succeed in creating the social contract that is a precondition for the establishment of a democracy, and if they put in place after all that a democratic government
Duncan Cox
Prof. Mabro: Are there existing oil contracts which must be honored under international law?
Robert Mabro
and if all that is done very quickly then you would be right.
Robert Mabro
But I do not believe that all this is achieveable within a reasonable period of time.
Robert Mabro
Whether it likes it or not, whether it wants it or not the US if it wants to fulfil its agenda will find itself drawn into a long protracted process and will find itself obliged to act as a colonial power being caught in the vicious circle of trouble-repression-further trouble and so on.
Robert Mabro
I am afraid, that neither the US nor the UK have fully realised the problems.
Nancy Gillespie
Prof. Mabro, if a representative government were be established in Iraq, what impact would you expect to see in the non-democratic neighboring states? That is, do you give any credibility to the Bush adminitration' s hypothesis that such a change would foment broader democratic change in the region?
Michael Jecko
Prof Mabro--I am particularly focused on NATO and the stature of this alliance after the war. More specifically the relations between Turkey and the US were tested over use of air space and ground space, and now it might further be tested over oil and the Kurds. What do you see as the outcome of relations between the US and Turkey?
Robert Mabro
Ingrid: democracy is a very good thing compared to autocracy. Everybody deserves to live in a democratic system. But democracy can not be imposed from outside or from above. It has to evolve within a society on the basis of a social contract. It requires a long historical evolution.
Robert Mabro
Erik: no it is not a coincidence. It is a bonus.
Robert Mabro
Duncan: my understanding as a layman of international law is that contracts entered upon by a government are binding to a successor government.
Robert Mabro
Memoranda of understanding, however, are not contracts.
Robert Mabro
Most of the agreements signed with the Saddam government were memoranda of agreement.
Robert Mabro
Nancy: Are you the Nancy Gillespie I know?
Margaret Mathews
Regarding the contracts -- while binding, if they are business or financial contracts, and cannot be met without severe difficulty, it is possible to force the other part "to the table" to re-negotiate them, or even find ways to get out of them. I imagine this will happen
Robert Mabro
Nancy: The change will lead to broad changes in the region. But I am not sure that democracy as we understand it will blossom easily.
Robert Mabro
Michael: In the end, the US needs Turkey, and Turkey needs the US. Some accomodation will be found. As regards NATO, this current situation has
Robert Mabro
revealed that the role of NATO needs to be clearly defined now that the Cold War is over.
Robert Mabro
Margaret: yes, of course, ... at a cost.
Robert Mabro
You can renegotiate anything.
Tom
Sir: ... but who needs to define the role of NATO? do they not make their own decisions? and if so, are they likely to embark on a re-definition of their contract with the world?
Margaret Mathews
But the Turkish situation also shows the impatience that the US shows for democratic processes in other countries when the answers aren't palatable. Turke rejected our ground troops in one of the most democratic processes that countryy has ever had, and we were furious. Which makes me worry about how supportive we will REALLY be about the time it will take for democracy to grow in Iraq.

 

Professor Robert Mabro chat continued

Charles Fout
Mr. Mabro- Do you think Turkey was unduly pressured by France over its long standing desire to join the EU?
Duncan Cox
Prof Mabro: Who in Iraq owns the oil wells? and with whom in Iraq were the contracts negotiated? Is it possible that ownership resides in some international corporations?
Robert Mabro
Tom: the member countries of NATO are those who have to redefine its role. It is up to them. I really cannot understand why an institution created to cope with the cold war should continue to exist after the cold war has ended.
Pete Schmidt
Professor Mabro-- wouldn't you say that at some level, this war is all about oil? Would Saddam have the resources to be such trouble without oil? With N. Korea, we can try to wait for it to self-destruct through defense spending (like the USSR), but with Iraq, didn't smuggling make the regime (but not the citizens) more sanction-proof?
Robert Mabro
Margaret: when you are a superpower you want your will to be accepted by everybody else.
Robert Mabro
You preach democracy, but if democracy somewhere leads to people resisting your will, you become furious and try to find a way to impose your will.
Guest
Unless you understand that in the long run that will backfire.
Elaine Morton
Duncan: Iraq has been self-sufficient in its oil development. International companies did some contract work in a few instances, but this did not give them any future rights.
Robert Mabro
You preach free trade, but if free trade does not suit one of your industries you will impose import tariffs. A superpower does not worry about the discrepancies between what it does and what it preaches.
Elaine Morton
Mr. Mabro: How is the US govt likely to react if a post-conflict democratic Iraq takes anti-Israeli political positions -- e.g., at the United Nations?
Robert Mabro
Charles: no, I don't think that the negative vote in the Turkish parliament was due to France. At the margin it was a nationalistic vote.
Robert Mabro
Duncan: the oil resources in all countries of the world are the property of the state.
Robert Mabro
Even in the UK.
Robert Mabro
In the UK, the oil resources are the property of hte crown.
Robert Mabro
When oil companies are allowed to explore, develop, produce, their ownership is limited to the oil produced and does not extend to the oil in the ground.
Robert Mabro
The only exception is oil under private land in the US.
Erik McDermott
A story has been circulating that preventing the oil industry from changing from the dollar standard to the euro standard could be a major benefit/motive in the US take over of Iraq. Comments?
Robert Mabro
Pete: If we were to say that the troublesome countries are those named by president Bush as part of the "axis of evil" we find that two of them, Iraq and Iran, have oil, but that the third one
Robert Mabro
which is by far the most dangerous and troublesome is NKorea, which has no oil.
Robert Mabro
Not a drop of oil.
Robert Mabro
Well, you can conclude whatever you like. I agree with you, however, that money helps a dictator in building an army etc. But it is a helpful condition not a necessary one.
Erik McDermott
In your position paper you say that 9/11 was the major reason for this war. The US just had to respond, convincingly. But weren't the hawks planning this war well before 9/11?
Robert Mabro
Elaine: If you really have a democratic government in Iraq it will be a government with a strong nationalist element in it.
Michael Benefiel
"We are happy to be rid of injustice, but we fear the Americans' intentions," said Sayyid Abu Murtadah al-Yasiri, age 45, an Iraqi imam quoted in the NYTimes today. I hope that the U.S. stewardship of Iraq's oil will reflect the most transparent and internationally competitive procedures in order to demonstrate that American implementation equals American good intentions.
Robert Mabro
And it will not be sympathetic to a resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict that is too oppressive to the Arabs.
Elaine Morton
Mr. Mabro: Do you think Iraq's new legislator should have the right to approve oil contracts on a case by case basis? That would be real democracy.
Robert Mabro
The US at present is in the mood of throwing its weight around. But I think that the Iraq experience will be in the end a salutary one because the US will realise the difficulties of operating changes by force and military intervention in any country of the world.
James Johnson
Mr Mabro. Do you have any thoughts on the report that the Mosul-Haifa pipeline may be reopened?
Robert Mitchell
Prof Mabro/Elaine: Am I correct then in understanding that, prewar, the oil and the production facilities were owned nationally, and will continue to be owned nationally postwar? If privatized, how would the proceeds of production directly benefit and rehabilitate the people? (and I don't give any credence to "trickle-down" economic theories).
Robert Mabro
Erik: I have never been very excited by these proposals to change the denomination of the currency for pricing oil. Of course, if oil is priced in Euro, the demand for Euros will increase, initially at least, and it may appreciate relative to the dollar. But you have to look at the next step: countries receiving revenues in Europe will have to change some of them.
Robert Mabro
into dollars in order to pay for imports from the dollar-zone.
Robert Mabro
At present, they change dollars into Euros to pay for those imports they are getting from Europe.
Robert Mabro
In the end, the change in the demand for currencies will cancel itself out.
Michael Benefiel
Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz explicitly warned Syria about its support of Hezbollah and Hamas during his TV appearance on Meet the Press last Sunday. How likely is it that Israel and Syria can re-start negotiations through U.S. channels to reach a settlement of claims dating from the 1967 war?
Robert Mabro
Erik: yes, the hawks were planning the war before 9/11, but 9/11 gave them the momentum they needed to clinch the final decision.
Elaine Morton
To Robert Mitchell: There is no perfect solution but something like a fund for national purposes could be established and a proporation of the oil income allocated to it. The rest would be held by private investors.
Robert Mabro
Michael: well, I agree with you. I hope that the US policy will be enlightened. Which will help not only the Iraqis but the US interest. in the long run. But do you believe that Mr. Perle, Mr. Rumsfeld, Mr. Wolfowitz advice is enlightened?
Robert Mabro
James: to reopen the Mossul-Haifa pipeline you need reconciliation between Iraq and Israel. The US will push for that very hard. It all depends on which government they are going to put in place and what are the political leanings of that government.
Elaine Morton
To Robert Mitchell: I forgot to mention that even where the international oil companies operate, substantial taxes and fees on their profits are the mechanism that transfers oil income to public purposes.
Robert Mabro
I think that what the US should do immediately (why wait?) is to work hard towards an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. that appears reasonably just to fair-minded people.
Robert Mabro
Do it now, do it quickly, do it with all the necessary amount of pressure, and you would redeem a lot of sins.
mazyar
Thanks everyone we are going to stop here.
mazyar
Thank you all very much for participating in this panel.
mazyar
Please don't forget to continue with the discussion on the board.
Robert Mabro
Robert: the profits from oil production go partly to the company who has done the work., and largely to the government. who owns the resource.
Robert Mabro
and has given the concession.
mazyar
Thank you professor Mabro.
mazyar
Thanks everyone.
Robert Mabro
Thank you for your very interesting questions.
Robert Mabro
I hope you have not misunderstood the thrust of my paper.
Robert Mabro
Again, I don't think that oil is irrelevant
Robert Mabro
but I don't think it is the causal motive of this poliitcal action.
Robert Mabro
I am pessimistic about the next
Robert Mabro
months if not years, it is going to be much more difficult to win the peace than to win the war.
mazyar
Thanks again. Lets stop here.

 

What Went Wrong in Iraq: An Insider's View

Well, here I go again.

http://www.alllearn.org/forum.jsp?C=436

 

What Went Wrong in Iraq: An Insider’s View

Turned out to be a pretty interesting discussion.

 

What Went Wrong in Iraq: An Insider’s View (continued)

 

What Went Wrong in Iraq: An Insider’s View (continued)

 

What Went Wrong in Iraq: An Insider’s View (continued)

 

What Went Wrong in Iraq: An Insider’s View (conclusion)