With the economy, what will happen to higher ed / DL?

I have been wondering what the economy's downturn will mean to higher education in general, and specifically DL. Does anybody know the effects from the tiems of the Great Depression (of course not on DL, but higher ed in general). Most recessions increase enrollment in schools, but something like we are in / going into may be different? Thought?

 

Personally, I think we will see a boom in both delivery models; Brick and Mortar appeal will be up due to time (no job, plenty of time), and DL attendance will be up for cost (no job, no money).

Of all the industries to invest what little I have left, I would put it into the publicly traded for-profits. They seem to be the only ones making any gains right now.

 

Usually higher education enrollment is anti-cyclical (i.e. economy down, enrollment up). However... this situation might be different. Colleges and universities (especially the private institutions) likely have investments that have turned sour and might be forced to cut programs and lay off professors and instructors. Whether these cuts will translate into full-time B&M programs or online DL programs is uncertain. Generally it is always easier to lay off non-tenured and part-time instructors and lecturers which are generally involved in online education more than tenured full-time professors.

Certainly the bottom has not be hit yet (look at the markets over the last week)... so it is difficult to say.

 

I predict that a lot of people will be taking on additional student loan debt for grad school.

 

It depends, I teach a lot of adult education courses at the master's and undergraduate level and the enrollment is lower than ever.

People don't see the point to invest in a program when the market is not hiring.

 

Full time programs like PhDs and MS will get more students as new graduates cannot find work. However, most of the MBA and part-time Master's professional programs are either funded by companies or self funded so these programs are experiencing very low enrollments compared to better economic times.

 

Bingo! If companies decide to cut back on tuition reimbursement, you can believe enrollments will drop. It's harder to get private loans now as well so that is dry as a source for many people.

Also, the money-making programs (MBA types) are dependent on people having a certain sense of optimism. Those aren't 'change your life' programs any more. They're more like 'get a promotion at work' programs. If people feel like that's not going to happen, it will dampen their enthusiasm.

Less enthusiasm, less funding = lower enrollments. I can't see any other possibility.

 

This is a good point. Companies may see little investment in putting a person through an MBA program in tough economic times, especially if that person might be laid off in the future.

Also, as a side note, companies have started not to pay for professional membership dues.

 

I think that while there might be some decrease in enrollments, colleges aren't going to disband their distance education programs completely. They might not add much to them but they are here to stay. When the economy recovers (it will!) enrollments will be back up and those programs will see higher numbers once again.

In fact, right now is a good time to start a program if you can afford to. The economy acts like a pendulum. At some point we are going to have corrected far too much and companies will have cut too many jobs to save money. When the economy comes back (maybe 2010 at a minimum, probably 2011) there will be a need to hire people for the jobs they cut. If someone were to start a 2 year MBA now, they'd be finishing it right around the time the jobs will be coming back.

 

I agree, but that is why full time enrollment at graduate schools go up with bad economic times but part time and adult education go down. If you are already unemployed, it is best to invest your time going back to school and earn a degree that will be used in two years from now when the economy recovers. However, if you work full time and money will come out of your pocket, you might not have enough to pay for your school and the uncertainty that the graduate education will pay off might not be worth the risk.

Also, the value of the MBA in the future is very questionable. With so many programs and graduates, it looks like the degree will become more like minimum requirement for a business job rather than for promotions. In few words, if you are already a business professional working in the field, you might not see the benefit to get an MBA, if you are a youngster trying to break into a business career, it might helpful just to get you the interview.

 

It's not going to be a pretty picture at the public universities. State tax revenues are going to be way down, so universities will be receiving smaller appropriations. That's probably going to mean dramatic fee-increases and program cut-backs.

I expect that many low-demand programs will get canceled. It's probably going to accelerate the decline of the traditional arts-and-sciences majors at all but the elite universities. Most schools will continue to evolve into vocational trades-schools.

DL will probably survive pretty well. I'd guess that it's less expensive than building and maintaining physical plant. And DL often charges its mid-career students a lot of money and usually doesn't offer graduate students the lavish financial support packages that on-campus students often get. So DL is probably a lot closer to being self-supporting.

Will students still be willing to pay for DL? Maybe not big-bucks for expensive vanity degrees. We are going to see less fascination with sporting a doctoral title. Many DL programs are obscenely overpriced and those programs might have trouble attracting students now that people are hoarding cash. The insatiable student demand for MBAs might finally start to abate a bit.

We will probably see nuts-and-bolts skills programs holding up well. Nursing will get a lot of new attention from students, since there's job-demand there. K-12 teaching might get a new look too.

 

I wonder if the rumored plans at AMU to offer PhD programs will be shelved until the economy recovers. The job market even for traditionally earned PhD graduates is in the toilet right now.

 

DL is a low cost education process that is effective and efficient for a large number of professional categories. It is particularly efficient for mid career individuals who have educational objectives linked to their work environment. The Distance learning's particular strength is that it can be brought into the workplace by online methodologies. This is the point where theory and practice meet. The strongest point of learning.

Companies will now want the most capable workplace and workforce. A low cost reputable educational process that can be brought into the workplace will be more important than the name on the paper. In times of crisis, competence will trump prestige.

DL companies have an opportunity to gain marketshare by dropping costs and making the product workplace friendly. Companies will now be looking to hone their competitive edge and to build for the recovery. This niche market may be the most viable for DL schools. B&M schools may be less inclined to compete in this market if their student bodies grow due to unemployment. Some industries are going to be more DL focussed than others.

In law enforcement in this country, for example, DL is probably the greatest provider of post academy inservice training. It is low cost and the vast distances make it the most effective tool. The police service I work for has a vast inventory of DL products,sometimes accompanied by short inhouse supplementary training. The shrinking government revenue base will increase this emphasis. The service may even outsource more, if a low cost and credible provider appears on the horizon.

 

If it does become the minimum requirement (which I do agree it will be for some jobs) wouldn't it still be beneficial for those with years of experience to get one? You might be doing great at your current job with 15 years of experience but as soon as you try to leave, your resume will get tossed by many of the employers with jobs that state must have MBA. It's a comparable situation with someone that has 20 years of experience and no bachelors degree. Is it impossible for them to find work? Not at all. Is it harder because they don't have the box checked in regards to the bachelors? I think so.

 

Some people that are having a very hard time are Computer related PhDs. I have met quite a few PhDs in computer related fields doing Post docs due to the slow market. Some traditional have hundreds of people doing PhDs in Computer Science and Engineering as the market is not taking them so they continue with their PhDs but this just makes more difficult the academic market for computer related academic careers. It is going to take a while before these PhDs are absorbed by the market so I would stay away from any Computer related PhD DL or not for now.

I agree with you, it seems that the MBA is becoming the minimum requirement to get into business positions. This has also triggered the need of business professors but the trend is towards AACSB accreditation just to make sure that the DLs are out of the loop.

 

Actually if you believe Fox & MSNBC, Health Care and Education are two areas doing well. Academically speaking, I guess "well" is relative.

 

I guess that they talk about K12 education. The education field was neglected mainly due to low salaries. As the other professions become less attractive, Education for K12 institutions will become more attractive.

I was referring to Education for professional and computer related programs.

 

With all of the latest finance scandals and collapses, accounting PhD graduates must be turning away work. Actually, this probably isn't that far from the truth. I've heard the most in demand PhD for business school jobs is accounting.

I could never do a PhD in accounting. I'd stab myself in the eye with a pencil to end the suffering. My hat is off to those that can.

 

Accounting has always been in demand as a teaching career. In Canada at least, many accountants don't have even a bacherlor's degree as CGA (Certified General Accountants) Canada wouldn't require one for admission into the profession. It is hard to imagine why someone would do 10 years of education to earn the same than someone with less than a bachelor's degree. Most people that I know that teach accounting are PhDs in Economics, Finance or General business that decided to get an Accounting designation as a way to break into academia.

 

Lots of work!

Thank you! Although is not a PhD.