US Elections 2024 - Current Polls

https://www.yahoo.com/news/what-the-polls-are-saying-in-the-final-week-before-the-2024-election-145731510.html

National polls
Three websites that aggregate national and state surveys — the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — currently have the national polling average as follows:

Silver Bulletin

• Harris: 48.6%
  
  
• Trump: 47.4%
  

FiveThirtyEight

• Harris: 48.1%
  
  
• Trump: 46.6%
  

New York Times

• Harris: 49%
  
  
• Trump: 48%
  

All three show Harris with a narrow lead in the popular vote, but each less than two percentage points — well within the aggregated margins of error.

Swing state polls
The same websites have polling averages in the seven battleground states as follows:

Silver Bulletin

• Nevada: Harris 47.9% | Trump 47.9%
  
  
• Arizona: Trump 49.4% | Harris 47.3%
  
  
• Wisconsin: Harris 48.5% | Trump 48.0%
  
  
• Michigan: Harris 48.1% | Trump 47.4%
  
  
• Pennsylvania: Trump 48.3% | Harris 48.0%
  
  
• North Carolina: Trump 48.9% | Harris 47.6%
  
  
• Georgia: Trump 49.0% | Harris 47.6%
  

FiveThirtyEight

• Nevada: Trump 47.5% | Harris 47.3%
  
  
• Arizona: Trump 48.6% | Harris 46.8%
  
  
• Wisconsin: Harris 47.9% | Trump 47.7%
  
  
• Michigan: Harris 47.7% | Trump 47.2%
  
  
• Pennsylvania: Trump 47.9% | Harris 47.7%
  
  
• North Carolina: Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.1%
  
  
• Georgia: Trump 48.6% | Harris 47.1%
  

New York Times

• Nevada: Harris 48% | Trump 48%
  
  
• Arizona: Trump 49% | Harris 48%
  
  
• Wisconsin: Harris 49% | Trump 48%
  
  
• Michigan: Harris 49% | Trump 48%
  
  
• Pennsylvania: Harris 49% | Trump 48%
  
  
• North Carolina: Trump 49% | Harris 48%
  
  
• Georgia: Trump 49% | Harris 48%
  

"The battleground states remain extraordinarily tight, with no candidate holding any material lead in the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency," Nate Cohn, the Times chief pollster, wrote Monday.

 

What it all means is that it's too close to tell. Nate Silvers (538 polling designer) gave a personal prediction that Trump would win. Then immediately said that personal predictions were worthless and should be ignored.

 

I think that now a week before Nov 5th with already 40 million citizens cast their vote, we can monitor trends via polls.
Knowing to view it within a margine of errors and inacuracy, etc.
I think the campaigns adjust their final efforts utilizing such and other data.

 

One interesting thing I learned today is that the 2020 election was our best turn out for an election since women got the right to vote. We appear to be on track in 2024 to beat the turnout percentages we hit in 2020. Of course we can't tell from that who's going to win or lose though.

 

Selzer Iowa poll shows Harris up three points. This could be an anomaly, but Selzer is known for its accuracy in Iowa. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Harris is only down five points in Kansas, according to a recent Fort Hays State University poll. However, they conducted a second poll during the same time period, and she was down 11 points, so their polls are not looking accurate.

https://kansasreflector.com/2024/10/31/a-stupefying-poll-shows-harris-breathing-down-trumps-neck-in-kansas-heres-what-that-means/

 

So many predictins.
Here is random one.
Trump 297
Harris 226

 

HAHAHA The olden days are back. That is the olden days when Lerner would post worthless junk he came across on the Internet. Nate Silvers (the author of the 538 website) made a personal prediction that Trump would win and then smiled immediately saying that personal predictions were worthless. Thanks for the laugh though.

 

Random, I have no idea who this guy was or is. When I watched, to me it was reasonable. I expected some will reducle this because it's showing Harris trailing.
From what I see it's impossible to say, very tight.
We may not know till all votes counted in to late Nov 6th or later, etc.

 

Questions to ask are we better or worse than 4 years ago?
Is the world better or worse than 4 years ago?
Who will be a better choice for going forward?
Economy, cost pf living, security, crime, borders, diplomacy.
People will make their mind.
Polls from Iowa are interesting.
Shocking to GOP results if IO poll is correct.
Also some people lie about who they vote for, there can be presure, spouse or family members etc.

 

Not that Trump can't win the Electoral College, but this is a pro-Trump YouTube channel, and the algorithm directed you to it since you're MAGA.

 

How about this one, it seems to be based on averages.
I see it for a first time, it shows different national pols averages

 

Silly meaningless nonsense. It's just a worthless personal prediction by a nameless nobody. Nate Silvers (the author of the 538 website) has wisely said that personal predictions were worthless.

https://abcnews.go.com/538

 

We don't need to watch YouTubers' predictions. 538 and Real Clear Politics aggregate polls and weigh them based on methodology and past performance. The swing states are very close and within the margin of error. They can go either way.

 

What about someone with experience giving an in-depth analysis? Steve Kornacki is the gold standard for this, but literally anyone other than random people on youtube who are trying to declare Trump sweeps. No major pollsters or analysts support the notion that it will be a sweep for Trump, meaning they are basing this off of huffing their own copium.

 

Correct and Steve Kornacki does NOT make predictions as to who will win this election because he knows that it is too close to call and he's not a stupid idiot.

 

All true. Still...Nate Silver has shifted toward Harris.

 

We don’t know from the polls. All the pollsters can say is what you just said. They don’t know.

But. Elections aren't just polls. People vote, or decline to vote, for their own intensely personal reasons. We saw this with Trump's win in 2016 and the failure of the 2022 Red Wave to materialize.

History suggests that Trump and Trumpism are deeply loathed outside of the MAGA bubble. History also suggests that the Religious Right's actions on abortion where they are in power are also deeply unpopular.

For Trump to win, he needs more than the MAGA Base. I don't think he has that support.