Polls Have Improved for Democrats with Harris at the Top of Ticket

Discussion in 'Political Discussions' started by Bill Huffman, Aug 17, 2024.

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  1. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    May be. But the sense I get is that people are choosing Harris out of enthusiasm (and relief) and not just voting against Trump.

    Besides, Trump and Trumpism have done remarkably poorly since 2016. Remember the Red Wave that wasn't? Neither Trump nor Trumpism has changed and his shtick is getting old.

    There's little discernible difference between Trump in 2020 and Trump now and Biden the Always Unpopular beat him handily. There's no good reason to think things will be different this time.
     
  2. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    It is a close race. The momentum seems to be in Harris's favor. Still over two months to go though.

    I just think that criminals should be kept out of the Oval Office. Trump has doubled down on his threats to Democracy saying that he won't accept the election if he loses. Hopefully he loses and is unsuccessful in generating another violent insurrection.
     
  3. JoshD

    JoshD Well-Known Member

    At the end of the day, does anyone win if Harris or Trump are elected? I am not convinced America is in good hands with either of them…
     
  4. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Yes, it matters. Only one candidate attempted to overthrow our government in order to remain in power.

    Americans don't really like whiners. Trump is sounding awfully whiny these days.
     
  5. Stanislav

    Stanislav Well-Known Member

    There is no real evidence Harris will be anything less than OK. Her qualifications and her life story are in the ballpark of a typical candidate (race and gender aside). Her positions are fairly popular. America is in no real danger from her.

    In contrast, Trump is an amoral narcissistic deeply ignorant aging weirdo surrounded by racist extremists and corrupt opportunists.
     
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  6. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    Harris's left-wing economic populism makes me wince. Still, she accepts the outcomes of elections, while Trump doesn't. Being anti-democratic is completely disqualifying.
     
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  7. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    Define "close". I don't think Trump will do nearly as well this time as he did in 2020. A lot has happened since then and none of it tended to broaden Trump’s Base.
     
  8. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Polling is close to the margin of error in the swing states. The trend is in Harris’s favor at the moment. I hope that continues. The bigger the margin Trump losses by the harder it should be for him to instigate a violent insurrection.
     
  9. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Here's a fun article about uninformed Trump voters. I'm not saying that Trump voters are all uninformed. I'm saying this article is about uninformed voters, who are mostly Trump voters.

    Democracy is not perfect and it has a few concerning things about it. This article touches on one of them. It's still the best system we have for organizing a government.

    Letter from the South
    Among America’s “Low-Information Voters”
    Donald Trump has dominated in polling of people who pay little attention to political news. What do they have to say?

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-the-south/among-americas-low-information-voters
     
  10. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    I should also mention that Trump is apparently trying to insert loyalists into the vote counting mechanism in at least some of the swing states. Hopefully the judicial system can once again hold against his shenanigans but it would be nice if the Harris win was big enough to make it close to irrelevant.
     
  11. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    It would, but I wouldn't bet on it.

    Franklin was right to reply, "A republic, madam, if you can keep it."
     
  12. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    I forgot to mention that Trump out performed the polls in both the 2016 election and the 2020 election. To be fair it can be argued that 2016 may have been due to that #$@%^ Comey last minute announcement right before the election.

    The polling trend momentum still seems to be in Democrats favor though. The Senate and House polling results are starting to look more favorable for Democrats as well! It's still looks pretty close though.
     
  13. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    He did. Nate Silver still says Trump has a slight Electoral College lead. I don't see how that could be true but Silver is pretty good at this stuff. Nevertheless, things start to matter now.
     
  14. SteveFoerster

    SteveFoerster Resident Gadfly Staff Member

    I think it was more a function of the American version of shy Tory factor. I wonder, however, how much that's still in play eight years later, as people who support Trump have been inculcated to be in-your-face about it, rather than reluctant to admit it outside the polling booth.
     
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  15. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

  16. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    Definitely hard to tell, for me personally, I am just trying to be cautious in my beliefs. I remember my "stunned" condition after the 2016 election and would rather not relive that experience. :confused:
     
    nosborne48 likes this.
  17. nosborne48

    nosborne48 Well-Known Member

    We won't.
     
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  18. Lerner

    Lerner Well-Known Member

    I don't have a horse in this rase.
    I care strongly about the country.
    So looking at how the "contest" evolves.
    How long the affects of honeymoon after DNC will last.
    The interviews candidates give.
    Vice President Kamala Harris got a worrying sign in Michigan, a critical swing state in November's election, in a poll released on Friday.

    It appears the latest polls are to close.
    The lead in key states shrining.
    Both sides are nervous as always.
     
  19. Garp

    Garp Well-Known Member

    Funny @Bill Huffman. I have a feeling there will be drama either way. People were shell shocked after H. Clinton losing and Trump being sworn in.
     
  20. Bill Huffman

    Bill Huffman Well-Known Member

    MAGA folks liked to call it TDS Trump Derangement Syndrom. I liked it though and freely admit to having TDS.
     

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