Is an online doctorate worth the effort anymore?

Randell is, in fact, a perfect example, as he came to us with years of relevant career experience, online teaching experience and advanced degrees in areas of need for us. he also has been a very diligent and engaged instructor who is highly rated by students and my staff.

 

The availability of faculty and administrative positions in K-12 ans higher ed varies widely by the type of institution and the discipline or administrative position. There are gluts in some areas and shortages in another. Speaking of gluts, the idea that online doctorates constitute a significant portion of earned doctorates is not yet a reality. There are hundreds of graduate institutions producing the roughly 48,000 eared doctorates each year. Online doctorates currently constitute no more than 5% of this total, since the bulk of online doctorates come from Capella, Walden, Phoenix and Northcentral.

Last year, the annual survey of earned doctorates reported that the number of doctorates awarded had actually declined from the previous year.

 

I am surprised by this.

 

I see what you mean. We talk about such things day after day here so it seems to us (me) like online doctorates are ubiquitous. According to Dr. P, only 5% of doctorates awarded are earned online so online doctors are not "nesting in our walls". As I said before, this has surprised me.

 

It may be true that online doctorates are only a small percentage of the total. But keep in mind that a typical B&M research university spreads their doctorates over a huge variety of different fields, from art history to petroleum engineering to Sanskrit to biophysics to political science.

Online universities don't have that kind of breadth -- their doctorates are concentrated in just a few fields, like business and education. And within those fields, online doctorates are big players.

For example, UC Berkeley issued 1,292 doctorates in 2010-11. That's certainly more than Capella, with 819 doctorates, or the University of Phoenix with 552.

But at Berkeley, business and education doctorates represent only a small percentage of the total; at Capella and UoP, business and education doctorates are in the majority. Look at the numbers for these fields specifically (all numbers from College Navigator):

Doctorates in business/management:
UoP: 285
Capella: 183
Berkeley: 14

Doctorates in education:
UoP: 205
Capella: 362
Berkeley: 50

Online production is a huge factor in these fields. When it comes to business doctorates, for example, UoP and Capella are probably outproducing all Ivy League, Pac-12, and Big 10 schools combined. A traditional B&M business school might issue 10 or 20 doctorates per year; Capella and UoP are both issuing hundreds of business doctorates per year.

 

Very informative, thank you.

 

Gotta love Survey Monkey

 

Randell,

Just completed the survey - thanks!

One thought about finances...I fully plan to use the student loan forgiveness option for my loan balance in eight years. I used a variety of military benefits as well, but I did borrow money for the degree.

I consider the loan forgiveness option to be a "grant." I would add that question to the survey as well, because the loan forgiveness program is part of the financial puzzle for many PhD students.

Shawn

 

Thanks for the suggestion but once you create the survey it is difficult to make changes without clearing the results.

 

Total production of business doctorates in 2010-11:

285 University of Phoenix
183 Capella
82 Northcentral
71 Walden

63 Total of all Ivy League schools combined.

Online schools may be small in terms of overall doctorates issued. But the online schools concentrate on producing business and education doctorates. And within those fields, there is reason to suspect that they may be flooding the market.

 

This overproduction can fireback schools and graduates. I know some department chairs that are bias against UoP because the degree is oversold. A degree from this institution can be dangerous to your reputation.
Capella is also starting to get a reputation of a oversold degree. Walden and NCU are still unkwnon but they should be careful.

In fews words, I believe there is a high risk that your investment would lose value if you decide to pursue a degree from an oversold school. It is like getting currency from a country that prints too much money.

 

Here is another point of reference for business doctorates:

56 Total of all University of California campuses, plus Stanford, plus USC, combined.

So Walden University alone is cranking out more business doctorates than all of the major B&M research universities in California put together.
And there are obviously other online schools that are a lot bigger than Walden.

Let's face it: by traditional B&M university standards, the online schools are issuing enormous numbers of business doctorates.
Are they producing so many that the degree is becoming devalued? People may disagree on that point. However:

- it does seem possible that the potential for devaluation exists, and
- it does seem possible for-profit online schools have little or no incentive to cut back on production, as long as they keep getting applications.

 

Where are you gathering these figure from? I think it's very informative but I would like to see for myself.

 

As it says in the post:

which is a database maintained by the National Center for Education Statistics of the US Dept. of Education, located right here.

Try this:

1. Enter "University of Phoenix Online" in the "Name of School" box
2. Click on the resulting link
3. Click on the "Programs/Majors" tab
4. Look for the "Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services" section
5. Look for "Category Total" in the last line of that section
6. Look for the column labeled "Doctor"
7. You will get 285 doctoral degrees in the "Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services" section.

Now go back to Step 1 and enter "Capella". Follow the same steps.
You will get 183 doctoral degrees in the "Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services" section.

Now go back to Step 1 and enter "California Berkeley". Follow the same steps.
You will get 14 doctoral degrees in the "Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services" section.

Now look up all of your favorite B&M schools. Are the numbers small compared to those of UoP or Capella?
Let us know.

 

If there were an equally strong demand for doctorates in history, then those same schools would offer them at the same rate as doctorates in business and education. Supply and demand is working (that's a business concept).

 

Another business concept: according to the laws of supply and demand, the value of a given commodity will tend to rise when the supply is tight, and will tend to fall when the supply is plentiful.

If we accept this business concept, and if we accept that online schools are producing doctorates at unusually high rates in certain fields, then what are the possible implications for the future value of those doctorates?

 

There has been a significant increase in the awarding of Associate degrees over the last 40 years, but has it caused a commensurate decrease in their perceived value?

Overall, there isn't a significant increased annual output of doctorates (but there is a small increase). As you noted, non-traditional doctorates comprise about five percent of that aggregate number; and within that five percent, there is an increased awarding of non-traditional business and education doctorates (but that's small when compared to the aggregate number).

If online schools produce doctorates at rates that cannot be absorbed, then doctoral holders will not be able to find full-time academic positions within their field. This has been occurring in the B&M industry for 50 years. There is a glut of B&M doctoral holders. What are the implications for B&M doctoral holders?

 

How do you know that non-traditional business and education doctorates are small compared to the aggregate number?

During the 1990s, the number of business doctorates was relatively stable, at around 1,100-1,200 per year. But something funny happened over the past 10 years: the number of business doctorates issues has nearly doubled. Data from the USDoE "Digest of Education Statistics", table 316.

2001-02 1,180
2002-03 1,156
2003-04 1,252
2004-05 1,481
2005-06 1,498
2006-07 1,711
2007-08 2,029
2008-09 2,084
2009-10 2,123
2010-11 2,245

So what has caused this surge in business doctorates over the past 10 years? Where could the hundreds of new business doctorates be coming from?

Could online schools -- which are known to issue hundreds of business doctorates every year -- have something to do with the change? And if the aggregate number of business doctorates issued annually is only around 2,000, then aren't the hundreds of doctorates issued by online schools a rather significant percentage of the total?

That's correct. And I think that in fact, most online doctorate holders do not find full-time academic positions. But let's take it a step further -- what about non-academic positions? If online doctorates are produced at high rates, then will these doctorates also begin to lose their value outside academia?

There are limited opportunities in academia for B&M business doctorates, due to the low turnover of tenured faculty. However, business doctorates (particularly from AACSB schools) still have value outside of academia, due to their relative scarcity. As noted earlier, most top schools only produce a handful (maybe 10-20) of business doctorates per year.

I suspect that the job market can absorb 19 Harvard DBAs and 14 Berkeley DBAs every year, without any danger of oversupply and devaluation. But I am not sure that this is true for 285 UoP DBAs and 183 Capella DBAs.

 

Greetings, Shawn. What is this program to which you refer?

 

Rich,

Here is the link:

http://studentaid.ed.gov/sites/default/files/public-service-loan-forgiveness.pdf

Shawn