https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election/democrats-win-bitter-virginia-governors-race-in-setback-for-trump-idUSKBN1D71D7
No, it's not a set-back at all. The state voted against President Trump during the presidential election -- and nothing has changed, so it's status quo. It's not a game changer, although the DNC is exuberant that they didn't lose the state to the GOP.
Yeah, keep telling yourself that. In fact, Trump lost Virginia by 5 points in 2016, and Gillespie lost it by 9, and Reps also lost seats in Legislature (including long-time incumbents). DNC should not get too cocky based on this, but it's definitely a positive momentum. 4-point swing is enough to sink Trump in 2020, deep. Especially if they try to pass the rich-friendly tax plan - and fail. Oh, and more indictments (lock-then-up!).
As someone who is actually from Virginia and has been paying attention to Virginia politics since my dad took me along to help him canvass for Arlington County Board candidates when I was ten years old, I disagree strongly, and I'll explain why. Virginia is a purple state, and has been for a very very long time thanks to the coincidental timing of (1) Nixon's Southern Strategy and (2) the relentless influx of people from other regions of the country into Northern Virginia starting in the '60s. That's why national momentum and pendulum effects have made such a difference for so long, such as how the governorship tends to go to the party that didn't win the White House the year before. (Another factor in that is the strongest term limit rule in the country, in that a governor cannot run for re-election, so they're all one-termers.) In that sense, Ralph Northam's victory wasn't particularly remarkable, even though Virginia is still purple overall and Ed Gillespie was genuinely competitive. Other things about this year's Democrat sweep in Virginia were remarkable, however, and very much so. One is the margin of Northam's victory. Nine points in a Virginia statewide race without an incumbent is a landslide. Just four years ago, Democrat Terry McAuliffe won the governorship over Ken Cuccinelli, a polarising social conservative, by less than three points. The margin of Northam's victory isn't explained by the quality of either candidate, as neither man was particularly loved or hated; nor was the Libertarian candidate a significant factor, as he barely registered at just 1.1% (and moreover, in Virginia Libertarians tend to pull more votes from Democrats than Republicans). The other was the Republican loss of the House of Delegates. No one I know saw that coming. The only event to which I can relate it is the unexpected major shift of the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994. Some of the districts the Democrats won this year I thought had ten years to go before they might be competitive, especially in Prince William County where transwoman Danica Roem defeated Bob "bathroom bill" Marshall, and a Latina named Haya Alaya and an avowed socialist named Lee Carter beat other seemingly safe Republican incumbents. Even more amazing, this happened even though it was a chilly, rainy day throughout much of the state, especially Northern Virginia. Especially in off-year elections like this, that tends to depress turnout, and that tends to help Republicans. But it sure didn't help them on Tuesday! Places like Prince William County didn't change that much demographically or ideologically in the last four years -- a little, sure, but not a lot. That means this is Trump backlash. Finally, after a year of kvetching and moaning, this was the first real opportunity for Democrats and Millennial anti-Trump independents to go out and actually do something. Sure, he wasn't on the ballot himself, and sure, Gillespie wasn't particularly Trumpish (although his attack ads suggesting Northam went easy on MS-13 backfired), but that didn't matter to a huge slice of people who were driven by their hatred for Trump to vote against any Republican they could find. With that in mind, 2018 ought to be a bloodbath for Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives. If the GOP really want to enact federal tax reform and replace Obamacare, they'd better do it now, because smart money says this coming year is their last chance.
SteveFoerster, if you're right, then the proof will be in the pudding in 2018. Time will tell. Arlington is definitely Democratic and is part of the Northern Virginia (DC) complex. Large urban areas tend to be Democrats (liberals), while the rest of the nation seems to be Republicans (conservatives). Here is a dated population density map that shows where urban populations are congregated in Virginia: http://www.virginiaplaces.org/population/graphics/density2010.png This map is a little bit better: https://blogs.nvcc.edu/ips/files/2013/07/1.jpg
Some areas in the mountains will be safely Republican forever. But the upsets weren't just in the suburban and urban areas, for example, Democrat Chris Hurst beat an NRA-backed Republican down in Roanoke. Anyway, you guys are in serious trouble next year, so please do federal tax reform now while you can, it's the main thing I really want to make sure you all get done....
I'm not really looking forward to the federal tax reform. Taxes will go up for some middle class individuals under what's being currently presented. With some of the deductions they're taking away, there's a good chance that my taxes will go up. I definitely do not like the idea of taking away deductions for state taxes (sales, property, income, etc.) and the low cap on 401k contributions. I would like to see the business tax rate cut along with getting rid of the loopholes that allow some corporations to pay little to no taxes, but I don't have high hopes for myself.
The MSM is incorrectly (and repeatedly) reporting that 401k contributions are being reduced when, in fact, they are increased for the year 2018 from $18k to $18,500. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-announces-2018-pension-plan-limitations-401k-contribution-limit-increases-to-18500-for-2018
I'm not talking about what the IRS is currently doing; I'm talking about what is being proposed. The "MSM" is reporting accurately. In the tax reform bill, which has not passed yet and is not in its final form, Republicans are considering reducing the limit on non-taxable 401k contributions.
The IRS cannot create or dictate rules like that. Or are you saying that it is the IRS that raises or lowers 401k contribution limits? For example, are you saying that the IRS raised the 401k contribution limit for 2018?
The IRS follows existing laws. The Treasury Department can raise 401k contribution limits based on inflation. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2017/10/19/irs-announces-2018-retirement-plan-contribution-limits-for-401ks-and-more/#7d6a841c25ac
Sanantone, it is Congress that raises (or lowers) 401k contribution limits -- and not the IRS (even if an IRS employee thinks inflation is too high or too low). Do you disagree?
me again, you yourself provided a link to IRS action raising 401K contribution limit from 18,000 to 18,500, a COL adjustment under current law. Which is shockingly besides the point when discussing the content of Republican tax reform plans currently under discussion in Congress - one proposal there would lower 401k contribution limit (in order to pay for corporate tax cut, estate tax elimination, and a few other handouts for the wealthy and privileged). Question: are you being intentionally misleading, have been mislead by an ideologically allied affinity fraudster, or just pattern match news to fit your preconceived notions without really reading? Because I sincerely hope you have better reading comprehension skills in your graduate program (in Theology, a field heavy on rather demanding reading). What gives?
Stanislav, I normally don’t come to the defense of me again, but I think we need to show him some compassion after the trauma he went through this week with the various election results. Even now, me again is standing in front of his mirror stuttering, “President Buh… President Buh… Buh… Buh…” But by 2020, he’ll be sufficiently accepting of the inevitable to be able to comfortably say, “President Biden.” Bwa-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha! :drive:
BWAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :smile: Heck, even Transgender Danica Roehm beat the homophobe in chief!
Congress habitually passes legislation that authorizes federal agencies to make changes of this sort without further direct approval. One can argue that it's a dereliction of their duty, but not that it's uncommon or partisan.
